“Individual Mandate to be ruled unconstitutional by the US Supreme Court”
Source: Intrade
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As I have said over the years (repeatedly) this is the sort of thing that Intrade gets wrong.
Futures markets are really a focus group unto themselves: When the group is something less representative of the target market, they get it wrong with alarming frequency. Indeed, the further the traders are as a group to the target decision makers/voters, the worse their track record.
Here are the calls that I tracked over the years that were awfully wrong – IMO, it is absolutely due to the fact that the traders as a group have no correlation to the decision-makers:
GOP Retention of Senate (2006)
Michael Jackson Trial Results
Morgan Stanley CEO Purcell resignation
Howard Dean’s Iowa Primary
pre-Election 2004
Election day trading frenzy
Today’s SCOTUS decision is a classic example of why Prediction markets have minimal value.
The Wisdom of Crowds is wildly overstated . . .
Previously:
Why Prediction Markets Fail (January 11th, 2008)
Misunderstanding Prediction Market Failures (February 14th, 2007)
The Prediction Markets Chalk Another One Up! (June 13th, 2005)
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