Succinct summation of week’s events:
Positives:
1) July NAHB home builder index rises 5 pts to 35, the best since May ’07.
2) June Housing Starts rises to most since Oct ’08 with gains seen in both single and multi family.
3) In response to another record low in mortgage rates, refi apps rise 21.6% on the week.
4) NY mfr’g, likely helped by tech influence, rises to 7.4 from 2.3 and better than estimates. Components though mixed.
5) June CPI in line, up 1.7% y/o/y, matching the lowest since Jan ’11. Only negative read thru IMO is Fed thinks they have license to do more. 6) June IP about in line with capacity utilization matching best level since June ’08 helped by auto’s/parts production.
7) Flation part of India’s stagflation eases somewhat as CPI falls to 5 month low at 7.25% y/o/y.
Negatives:
1) Spanish bond yields spike to euro record high, Budget Minister says they’re out of money, Valencia asks for help, Sovereign likely guaranteeing bank bailout funds.
2) Netherlands, France, Belgium, Germany, Switzerland and the EFSF get paid to borrow money, good for them but sign of blatant fear.
3) June US Retail Sales down across the board for 3rd straight month.
4) Philly mfr’g in July negative for 3rd month.
5) Existing home sales fall to lowest since Oct ’11, some weather give back, less homes for sale, uneven demand.
6) Initial jobless claims total 386k from 352k last week but seasonal adjustments with auto plant shutdowns cloud data. 4 week avg 376k vs 377k.
7) Notwithstanding record low mortgage rates, purchase apps little changed.
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