Succinct summation of week’s events:
Positives:
1) Initial Jobless Claims total 361k, 9k less than expected and Labor Dept says there are no special factors unlike in the previous 4 weeks. I say give it one more week to normalize.
2) June Trade Deficit almost $5b less than expected as exports rise to record high, could add up to .4 of a % pt to the Q2 GDP revision.
3) Q2 Productivity rises 1.6%, a touch above est of 1.4%.
4) July Import Prices contract for 4th month sequentially but likely bottoming with jump in CRB index lately.
5) CPI in China moderates to 1.8% y/o/y, slowest rate of gain since Jan ’10.
6) Australia reports better than expected upside to July jobs data.
7) June IP in France and UK weak but slightly better than expected.
8) Dallas Fed Pres Fisher doesn’t see need for any more QE.
Negatives:
1) Boston Fed Pres Rosengren wants an open ended money printing program.
2) The avg gallon of gasoline according to AAA rises another .08 on the week to $3.67, the highest since late May.
3) Wholesale inventories in June unexpectedly fall but because sales fall more, the inventory to sales ratio rises to most since Dec ’09.
4) Q2 unit labor costs rise 1.7% vs est of up .5% and Q1 revised sharply higher to growth of 5.6%. Previous 3 Q’s though were down.
5) China’s IP in July slows to lowest pace since May ’09, retail sales, exports, imports and bank loans also all below expectations.
6) German IP in June falls twice as much as est.
7) Italian GDP in Q2 contracts for 4th straight quarter.
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