Succinct Summations week ending December 20, 2013.
Positives:
1. The Taper begins, with thunderous applause from investors as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones both make new all-time closing highs.
2. Q3 GDP was revised (pending revision) to 4.1%, increased consumer spending moved the needle.
3. Home-builder confidence jumped to its highest reading in 4 months and matched an 8-year high hit in August.
4. Housing starts rose ~23% m/o/m and are at their highest level since 2008!
5. Industrial production climbed 1.1% m/o/m
7. CPI in November was flat m/o/m but up .2% ex food and energy vs expectations of up .1% for both
8. US Industrial Production surprised to the upside with a 1.1% m/o/m gain;
9. EU services and manufacturing composite index rose .4 pts to 52.1, a 3 month high
10. UK unemployment rate falls to 7.4%, the lowest since April ’09
Negatives:
1. Pricing, higher interest rates this week across most of the yield curve will raise the cost of capital on top of an economy
2. Gold hit a new 52-week low and is down A LOT YTD. (I suspect a lot of retail investors are still clinging to these losses).
3. Initial jobless claims rose 10k to 379k, v expectations of 336k.
4. Building permits dropped 3.1% m/o/m but remain very strong.
5. Existing home sales fell to the lowest level of the year, totaling 4.90mm — 100k less than expected; refi applications fell 4.3% to just shy of the lowest level since June ’09.
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