Succinct Summations week ending January 17, 2014
Positives:
1. Core retail sales (ex-auto & gas) gained 0.6% v expectations for a 0.3% rise.
2. GM announced first dividend in almost 6 years.
3. 2013 housing starts were the best year since 2007.
4. Import price index declined 1.3% in 2013.
5. Remember Italian yields? The 3-year yield fell to a new Euro lifetime low.
6. Empire state index surged to 12.5 in January, up from a revised reading of 2.2. in December.
7. The mega banks reported earnings this week, the majority are doing well and their balance sheets are continuing to improve, despite massive legal costs.
8. Weekly jobless claims come in at 326k v expectations of 328k.
9. Consumer prices rose 0.3%, the largest rise since June; inflation is bad, deflation is worse (still below the Fed’s target, accommodation still likely).
10. The first 2014 beige book revealed economic activity is expanded (moderately of course) in 9 out of 12 districts.
11. Industrial production grew 0.3% m/o/m, the fastest pace since Q2 2010.
Negatives:
1. Bernanke’s term ends next week, market participants owe him a fist bump.
2. Tough week for retailers, Best buy saw its stock drop by nearly 30% on Wednesday.
3. Construction on new homes fell 9.8% in December
4. 2013 retail sales rose by 4.2%, the smallest annual gain since the recession ended.
5. The NAHB declined (barely) in January and missed expectations (number is still strong, however).
6. U.S. wholesale prices rose in December for the first time in 3 months and saw the biggest gain since June (offsetting positive #9).
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