Succinct Summations week ending February 27th
Positives:
1. The Nasdaq Composite just had its highest monthly close ever.
2. Durable goods orders increased 2.8% vs 1.6% expected
3. Case-Shiller home prices rose 0.87% m/o/m and 4.46% y/o/y, both above estimates.
4. Core consumer prices rose 0.2% m/o/m vs +0.1% expected.
5. Pending home sales grew 1.7%, less than the 2% expected gain but still hit 18-month highs.
6. Revised Q4 GDP came in at 2.2%, down from the 2.6% initially estimated but better than the 2% expected revision.
7. U of Mich consumer confidence came in at 95.4, higher than expected.
Negatives:
1. Chicago PMI fell to 45.8 vs expectations of 59.4, lowest since July 2009.
2. Existing home sales fell 4.9% m/o/m vs expectations of a 1.8% decline
3. US initial jobless claims rose 31k to 313k last week vs 290k expected.
4. Dallas fed manufacturing index fell to -11.2, down from -4.4 in January and below the expected reading of -4
5. U.S. oil rigs decline for the 12th straight week.
“3. Case-Shiller home prices rose 0.87% m/o/m and 4.46% y/o/y, both above estimates.
4. Core consumer prices rose 0.2% m/o/m vs +0.1% expected.”
This to me illustrates that there’s something very wrong with how we calculate inflation in this country. If you look at the spending of the average family in this country then maybe a third of that is housing. So a 0.87% increase in housing price should on its own bring 0.29% of inflation assuming everything else stayed constant (which it definitely didn’t). Of course all houses aren’t equal and maybe people were simply buying a 0.87% larger house on average this month than last month (doubtful).
~~~
ADMIN: How often do you buy a house? If you rent, how often do you renegotiate your lease?
“U of Mich consumer confidence came in at 95.4, higher than expected.”
I believe that is the expected value. Consumer confidence surged to 102.9 in January. A 7-year high. In spite of Obama’s socialism. :p
Not sure it qualifies as a negative or a positive but the House couldn’t get its act together and Homeland Security is no longer funded so if you are interested in how a major government agency shuts down this apparently will be the governing document.
U.S. Department of Homeland Security: Procedures Relating to a Lapse in Appropriations
During a federal funding hiatus, or lapse in appropriations, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) must be able to cease its government operations in an orderly fashion. Only those functions and activities that are exempt from the work restrictions specified in the Anti-Deficiency Act (ADA) may continue during a lapse in appropriations.
The ADA codifies the Constitutional requirement that “No Money shall be drawn from the Treasury, but in consequence of appropriations made by Law.” Federal officials are prohibited from entering into contracts, incurring obligations, or performing activities without having a current appropriation, unless authorized by law. The Act further restricts acceptance of voluntary services or personal services beyond authorized levels “except for emergencies involving the safety of human life or the protection of property.” As a result, only activities that qualify as exempt may continue to operate during a lapse in appropriations ….
NB: At a mere 46 pages it barely qualifies as a summary much less nuts and bolts but it is interesting to see the overview of each division as well as how many are exempt from the funding “lapse.” This really is a bureaucratic monstrosity though. Can’t really imagine it materially improves on performance of the semi-independent agencies it amalgamated and frankly find it easier to imagine the opposite in most cases with the possible exception of the TSA which is such a disaster that just about anything could be an improvement.
Latest word is the House managed to pass a “continuing resolution” to fund DHS for one week but that’s actually neither here nor there — congress is clearly a dysfunctional madhouse run by asshats and fools — the document itself remains a rather interesting read; even if you don’t have a geeky bent it reveals a world of complexity that you’ll never get from the daily news feed.