Lately, I am getting asked about our market calls more and more. Rather than trying to constantly recreate them, I have pulled together the major calls all in one place.
A few caveats are in order: First, what we do is not “Market Timing.” Rather, it is a form of risk management — we reduce exposure in times of high risk, low probability outcomes; we increase exposure when we believe risk is lower, opportunities plentiful, and valuations are attractive.
Keep in mind, this is a weighted evidence approach — it is part Art, part Science, part luck. The goal is to make the highest probability calls using the best data we can while ignoring the noise.
There is plenty of subjectivity to the process, as well as to this admittedly cherry picked list. But it is also useful for evaluating major calls at major turning points.
Here are all the Contrary Indicators and the Psychology/Sentiment work:
• January 2000 Sell
(This call, not picked up by media, was actually made for the wrong reasons — tax considerations. It worked out anyway);
• October 2002 Buy Tech calls (no media)
• Contrary Indicators 2000 – 2003 Bear
Written Spring 2003; Published August 2003
• Placing a Wager, On the Chip Sector
WSJ, August 3, 2004
Maxim Strategist Ritholtz, Sees Tax-Incentives Sunset, Picking Up Semiconductors
• Getting to Dow 6800
TheStreet.com, Jan 2006
The third part of a series that forecast a spurt higher, than collapse. The analysis was based on a fair value of the Dow at 9800, and a 3000 point panic collapse when the markets broke 10k.
• Placid Times Ahead?
Barron’s August 2007
(Long in 2007, Ritholtz wants to live in a cave the next few years hoarding gold)
• Separating The Seers From The Seersuckers
Dow Jones January 2008
“Be that as it may, kudos are still in order for a strategist who hit the bull’s eye in 2007. Barry Ritholtz came eerily close to guessing the year-end S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and 10-year Treasury note’s yield on the nose at 1475, 13250 and 3.975%, respectively, and also managed to pick the best-performing large stock of the year, Mosaic Co. (MOS), which rose 336% . . .”
• August 2008: Sucker’s Rally Alert: Dow Going Below 10,000
Yahoo Tech Ticker Aug 12, 2008
• 10 Bullish Charts, Signals, Indicators:
Published October 10th, 2008
Specific data and charts that can provide some insight as to how extreme these present levels are. All these suggest to us that we are increasingly close to a bottom that can be purchased for an upside trade of 20-30% from these levels.
• March 9th 2009: “Big Bear Market Rally Coming,” Says Noted Bear Barry Ritholtz Yahoo Tech Ticker, recorded March 9th webcast Mar 10, 2009 08:35am
• When Barry Ritholtz Talks, People Listen
Freakonomics, March 9th 2009
The Cover your shorts and go long call the day before the market bottomed in March 2009
• Famed Market Timers Say Rally’s Getting Sleepy
Dow Jones Market Talk, October 27, 2009
Many market observers predict tops and bottoms, but few successfully get their timing right. Jeremy Grantham and Barry Ritholtz sit in the latter category, so when they offer their forecasts, investors would be wise to take note.
• Tech Ticker’s Best of 2009: Guest of the Year, Barry Ritholtz
Yahoo Tech Ticker, January 2010
After the bottom call in march 2009, we recommended staying bullish the rest of 2009
• Ritholtz Has Gone 100% Out Of Stocks And Into Cash
Business Insider, May 6, 2010
In May 2010, we moved to 100% cash — the day before the 1,000 point flash crash
• Yesterday’s Big Winner: Barry Ritholtz
Business Insider, May 7, 2010
We told you earlier in the day yesterday, that blogger and money manager had gone 100% into cash based on technicals and market internals. Well, let this only add to his market-timing legend . . .
• Bear Days of August Might be Over, Says Barry Ritholtz
Yahoo Tech Ticker Sep 02, 2010
• Lightening Up on Small Caps, Emerging Markets (August 1st, 2011)
• Tactical Shift in Portfolios: Reducing Cash (October 21st, 2011) More equity into expected Fed action
• Time to Reduce Equity Exposure . . . (October 26th, 2012) raising 25% cash in case things turn south
• Our advice is to Substantially Reduce Apple Exposure . . . (November 26th, 2012) Sell some (or all), buy puts, tighten stop losses
• QE4 vs Dead Cat Bounce (November 29th, 2012) QE4 means putting that cash back to work
• Apple Could Fall to $350 But More Likely a “Bear Trap” (January 16, 2013)
• QE4 is bullish for stocks (January 17, 2013)
• Give the Market the Benefit of the Doubt (May 17th, 2013)
• Gold Overdue for a Bounce (July 1st, 2013) At $1200, Gold is technically oversold and can be traded for a few 100 points.
• Gold Bouncing Towards $1400 Creates Selling Opportunity (July 2nd, 2013) If gold gets to $1450 sell it.
That’s my long term run of calls through 2011 — some were really good, some were way early, and some were damned lucky.