Apologies for forgetting to post this prior: A quick programming note: I appeared on “Neil Cavuto’s Your World,” on the Fox cable network, 10/28 at between 4:20 and 5:00 pm today. The subject matter was the Fed Meeting, last week’s pull back, the outlook going forward, and the “Curse of Dow 10,000.”
Fox is an interesting channel, and has been generating tremendous ratings. They were surprisingly tolerant of a less-than-totally-Bullish perspective.
I did manage to squeak out a notice to the Big Picture email list; If you want to be added to the list (for either 2 market commentaries a week, or for special notifications only), just email me at britholtz-at-maximgrp-dot-com (put in the subject line:
“subscribe market commentary,”
or
“subscribe special notifications only.”
Of course, E-mail addresses will never be shared with anyone else.
Follow up:
Your World w/Neil Cavuto, October 28, 2003
I go crazy every time Nancy Polosi declares that 3 million jobs have been lost during the Bush Administration. I would like to call your attention to the September 26, 2003 edition of the WSJ and the article, “A Jobless Recovery?” by Allan H.. Meltzer
To quote from the article, “There are two sources of labor market statistics – The Establishment Survey and the Household Survey – both conducted by the Labor Department. The first asks manufacturing and service sector companies how many employees they have. The second asks a sample of people whether they have jobs.”
Further, “For the year ending in August, the Establishment Survey shows a loss of 463,000 jobs. The Household Survey shows that the economy added 313,000 new jobs in the same period. The Establishment Survey also shows the much discussed job loss since the Bush Administration took office – 2.7 million jobs. The Househild Survey reduces the loss to 220,000, not good but far more typical of a period with recession and slow recovery.”
I think an intreview with an expert on this situation would be very illuminating and, if legitimate, should be brought to the attention of the public. The article also indicates that many of the employees who lost jobs still work at the same place, but for a contract service company.
I would appreciate any comments about this and hope you will addres the article during one of your programs. If you decide to look into this, I would also appreciate knowing when you might present the program so that I could record it.
Thanks for youur attention,
James P. Toler III
Albuquerque, New Mexico
I’m familiar with Meltzer — (his work is unimpressive) I saw the WSJ piece when it came out last month, and I was unimpressed. I have little patience for statistical gamesmanship, and that’s what Meltzer was doing.
On the other hand, Thursday’s new unemployment claims were surprisingly positive; As long as we don’t find out next week that the “seasonality adjustments” were too aggressive, this is very positive. It suggests at the least that new jobs will start being created at 50-100,000 per month. That’s enought to absorb new hires andalyoffs, so at the least the unemployment rate should remain steady.
But to better unbderstand handle why the job loss issue is so signiicant, check out the charts at the Cleveland Fed — http://www.clevelandfed.org/ or the ones I referred to here: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2003/08/unique_recovery.html or this chart from the NY Fed: http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci9-8.html
They will give you a better sense of the employment situation. The issue isn’t whether unemployment is potentially a problem — at 6.1%, its not bad — but the concern is that the typical recovery by now has been creating 150-250k additional jobs per month for a year or so already. That’s what makes it a self-sustaining recovery.
Oh my… Neil,
What a discussion on your show today about the United Nations and Ms. Nancy Skinner’s opinion was an eye opener.
No offense meant to her but, she is out of her crock. The UN is so cowardly, greedy, and against the USA we need to deport the members to Alcatraz, or better yet to some other remote rat infested island far, far away from our borders. Just think of all the money we could save of our tax dollars with all the costs to host them in our great country.
They just “expect” our courtesy and our continuing to play dumb and stupid (duh).
WAKE UP AMERICA! We do not need nor do we have to seek approval from a group of …well lets just say inferior folks, to act on the behalf of our own country.
Put it to a vote from the American people. They will pitch them out so fast their heads will spin right off their necks.
I dare you to read this and get a response from the American people!
I watched your show this morning with Cumo & Dullton, Al. What a mess……. Why don’t you put together all the insidiuos inuendoes against
Presidednt Bush made at the Democratic (Socialists) convention. What a crock, when every time one of them came up to the Podium they bashed Bush. It is a mystery to me how any educated person can believe the garbage coming out of their mouths. I guess,as the saying goes, there are educated people and then there are educated fools.Pls forgive any sp errors, I’m not able to use spell check.