Chart of the Week: Import Prices as a Leading Inflationary Indicator

November 16, 2004 11:24am by

PPI came in stronger than many economists expected today. However, it is no surprise to readers of Mike Panzer’s research.

His work suggests that import prices are a leading indicator of U.S. inflation. Import prices were up 1.5 percent in October, the 4th consecutive monthly advance and largest increase since May.

Inflation_import_prices
Source: Michael Panzner

This suggests that inflation is far from dormant, courtesy of increasing import prices.

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  1. cb commented on Nov 17

    Great chart, but it’s not necessarily true that any rise in producer prices are ‘courtesy of import prices.’

  2. Kurt Landefeld commented on Nov 18

    Interesting chart.

    Do we know what fraction of that price spike can be attributed to oil?

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