Barron’s ran with Monday’s "Five for ’05"
Having spent the weekend reading a lot of other people’s predictions, I’m not terribly disappointed in my 5 possible disruptive issues. I somehow managed to stay away from all the cliched issues . . .
How’s that for a tag line? "Not terribly disappointing."
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Source:
Five for ’05
Barron’s MARKET WATCH TODAY
January 10, 2005
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB110514117384220423.html
What are other people’s predictions which you’ve been reading? I think Barrons is a full of crap (and corporate shills) so have no intention of reading that article. Nothing against you Barry, as your blog has fast become daily reading for me. I find your perspective informative.
Regarding your 5 issues …
My opinion is that #3 on your list is overblown. I’d substitute Sarbanes Oxley. Just watch how many companies with bad results use compliance w/ 404 provision as an excuse for poor results (likely due to management’s own lack of control and preparation). Also, watch the drumbeat to roll back all or some of Sarbanes to grow louder as more and more companies find it to be a convenient excuse for their own failures.
Your #4 should be expanded beyond patents to intellectual property (IP) in general. I predict Microsoft starts wielding patents as weapons against the competition of open source software in 2005. But, I’d expand the issue to not only patents but copyrights and trademarks as well. The latter two have longstanding traction, and should come as no surprise. More interesting will be how the battle lines get drawn. You can bet that China has no particular interest in full compliance with US IP issues, nor should they IMHO. We’ve gone totally off the deep end, and our justice system is straining under the load.
Your #5 is a wildcard of sorts, but unfortunately probably a safe bet.