For those of you who may not have been paying attention Friday, we had another below consensus Jobs number. Drilling beneath the headlines, we see the data is actually more discouraging than it appears at first blush.
Note that as I write this, I expect the jobs issue to have little impact on my recent intermediate Bullish comments. If anything, it will be spun positively, rationalized into a convenient excuse for Mr. G and his band of merry fed Governors to continue their monetary "accomodation" and ongoing measured pace.
The latest BLS report is always at this link; The December Jobs data can be found here (html or pdf)
For those wanting a little analysis with their data, here’s a few recent comments and additional sources on the Employment situation and the Unemployment Rate:
Employment Report: Let the Rationalizations Begin!
Job Gains: How have past Presidents fared?
Lost Jobs Found: Elapsed Time, 46 Months
This should keep the economic wonks busy for a few hours . . .
Good sense of bay area tech economy from CNet interview with Stephen Levy:
Silicon Valley lost 1.3 percent of its jobs last year, and average pay went down by 1 percent. Is it a sign that the high-tech economy is in trouble?
A: The job levels have fallen really substantially. The headline is that since 2000, Santa Clara County lost over 200,000 jobs. It lost a little over 20 percent of its job base, and by comparison, that’s the largest amount that any metropolitan area lost since the Great Depression. So 2004 was a very modest continuation of those losses when other areas were turning around.
You expect 2005 to be continuing somewhat better trends?
For the companies. I’m not sure there will be a lot of employment growth. If you’re in, you may be able to do better. If you’re not in, it might be hard to get in.
http://news.com.com/In+Silicon+Valley%2C+help+not+wanted/2008-1022_3-5571238.html