Nonfarm Payroll data: 15 year chart

The Online WSJ has a nice index of reports in their Economic Calendar, which I believe is not subscription only (let me know in the comments if I am wrong).

Have a look at this chart — if you follow the trendline, it suggests that 200k is a very doable number for the February jobs data.

click for larger chart


Source: WSJ/

The number is released at 8:30am — when I will be in a meeting; I’ll try to get a comment up (regardless of whether I am right or wrong) when I get back.

Something amazing about long term charts of anything: the day-to-day gyrations, which at the time cause so much anxiety, seem almost "orderly" when viewed from a distance with a moving average.

Even the 1987 crash is just a small blip on a longer chart . . .

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  1. rich commented on Mar 4

    it is a subscription link

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