Michael Panzner draws our attention to the Fed’s Regional surveys — which have been showing signs of ongoing weakness.
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"This week two out of three regional surveys of economic activity
flashed early warning signs that U.S. economic growth may be poised to
On Monday, the Empire (New York) Federal Reserve Survey declined
sharply, coming in at a much lower-than-expected -11.1. Today, the
Philadelphia Fed Factory Index also fell, again surprising the market
with a near two-year low reading of 7.3.
A quick read of the relationship between year-on-year growth in U.S.
Gross Domestic Product and those two surveys (plus the Chicago
Purchasing Managers Index, due out on May 31) suggests these regional
surveys may be worth paying especially close attention to."