This was a good — but not great — NFP report. In fact, its one of the better reports we’ve seen. It points to an ongoing improving economy, and continued Fed hikes — possibly for the rest of our natural lives, or until the next recession, which ever comes first.
The market is obviously concerned about the ratcheting up of rates, especially now with real rates above zero. As MFR’s Josh Shapiro explained:
"Average hourly earnings were up a m/m 0.4% in July (above market expectations of a 0.2% gain) after increases of 0.2% in the preceding two months. The y/y increase was steady at 2.7%, which continued a string of y/y gains that have been essentially flat for many months. However, the 0.4% m/m change definitely caught the eye of the bond market, and the Fed will be keeping a close eye on wage data in the coming months."
Thats more fuel for the Fed fire.
Since I’ve been such a curmudgeon lately, let’s dissect the data, looking for some hair on the deal:
Here is a Surprise: Temporary Jobs were flat — and have been since
April. We like to see temp work tick up, as cautious employers tend to
use temps prior to hiring. An uptick in temp #s often precedes an
uptick in permanent new hires.
Retail was a solid +50k, which surprises only so far as knowing what we know about the Challenger, Gray data, showing big layoffs in Retail. BTW, Retail in July was not bad — only below Wall St expectations. Maybe the stores that did well (Target, Costco, WalMart) made up for the ones that missed (Abercrombie, Nordstroms, Gap). Perhaps GM Dealers had to hire more bodies to help them give away cars at cost.
A few other items of note: Leisure and hospitality: of the +33k positions, 30k was food and drink; These tend towards lower paying McJobs. Also of note: 26k new Government employees.
Lastly, MS Howell’s & Co. Chief Market Strategist Brian Reynolds notes that Aggregate hours worked were far less than you would expect in a plus 207k report (with 64k upwardly revised new jobs).
Barron’s reports the net effects from the auto industry.
“Service jobs rose 203,000: retail jobs showed soared 49,800 as jobs at vehicle dealers, who were struggling to keep up with the stampede of customers, rose 6,000 to more than reverse a 2,000 decline in the prior month. Construction jobs continued to show strength, up 7,000.
But manufacturing jobs extended their sorry string of disappointment, down 4,000 with auto-related jobs down 11,000. The outlook for manufacturing auto jobs is uncertain given financial troubles at GM and Ford.”
A bit of good news on the labor market
Most of today’s BLS news release was pretty lukewarm. The unemployment rate was unchanged. Payroll employment up just over 200,000–which is on the short side of being just enough to hold our own with population growth. The employment/population ratio …