If you want to understand why I diss Wall Street Economists so much, have a look at this chart:
click for larger chart
I am shocked – Shocked! to discover inflation in these premises!
Oh, THAT Inflation!
October 6, 2005 11:21am by Barry Ritholtz
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Barry…I disagree w them too…could you explain this chart a little as I am not too ta savvy… Also, whats up w Fed fisher??? He seems to be the messenger… any thoughts on Mar Dia puts?
You know they re-jiggered the CRB just a couple months ago. Not sure if the intentions were sinister or not.
Thanks tim, thats helps me in some respect too.
hey, Barry: i know you were looking for bull to continue until sometime ’06 (BR: November/ December), but question, is this it? stocks falling even tho energy falling? inverse relationship starting to break down? is this the signal that affordability crisis has spread from homes to stocks? eventually to bonds? Wall St economists may have just discovered inflation but i think the Fed-heads have known for a while it was out of control, just didnt want the little people to catch on and freak. believe the freaking may be upon us
BLR: I don’t think so — this is not typically how markets roll over — We may sell down, and then rally up — But I would be surprised if this were it . . .
Barry-
If I read the CRB website correctly, it appears that the CRB index is far more volatile than CPI and may therefore not be very useful for translation into an inflation measure.
Scorpio:
I don’t think so — this is not typically how markets roll over — We may sell down, and then rally up — But I would be surprised if this were it . . .
well, u got that right: somebody stopped the drop, dont know if it was real buyers or my bete noir — the Plunge Protection Team — but what looked like beginnings of Oct crash definitely on hold for now
Rich–
Ignore this “volatility” stupidity keep talking about–it’s an excuse used by the Fed and its sycophants to exclude anything that’s going up in price.
If volatility truly worries you, just use a moving average to smooth it out. You’ll still see a HUGE uptrend in inflation.