A colleague asks about the "box office indicator" of economic health/weakness:
"Do the current weak openings and poor attendance of recent movies lately mean much of anything? I realize home theaters may be doing damage to household balance sheets as well as the desire to go out for a movie when Netflix and a widescreen TV would make do, and I thought movies did okay in recessions as people wanted to "go numb" a bit and have some entertainment."
We first looked at the issue of declining Movie Theater Attendance this past summer; We know that numerous factors — mostly non economic — were at work. Incidentally, the turnaround time for Netflix seems to be about 24 hours . . .
I asked Mike Panzner of Rabo Bank Securities hsi views on this; Mike observes:
"While movie ticket sales still seem to be in a long-term uptrend, the recent years’ decline amid strong economic growth is a development that bears watching…"
Mike whipped up this chart for us:
U.S. Movie Ticket Sales vs. GDP
click for larger graphic
Data source: Box Office Mojo, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Bottom line: The timing of this economic "tell" is probably too generalized to be of usage for shorter term traders.
Kind of off topic here, but your Netflix turnaround is at 24 hours? Mine was about 4-5 days when I had the service, longer if I didn’t time the weekend right. Must vary widely by location.
If I return something on a Monday, Netflix receives it on Tuesday and mails the next item in ym queue — I typically get the DVD Wednesday.
Note, however, there is a local processing center in Flushing, Queens (NYC).
I haven’t brought discs into work in the city to mail (USPS pickup at 8 am) but friends who do tell me they can get the next movie by Tuesday.
Both figures should probably be corrected for population growth — the GDP will just shift down but the ticket sales number would be nearly level — it’s got a CAGR of about 3% vs. US pop growth in the 2 to 2.5% range for that period. Tickets per POP is more interesting than gross Tickets.
The Big Picture: The Box Office Indicator?
Link: The Big Picture: The Box Office Indicator?. My wife and I went to an early movie last Friday (about 5:30). When we came out, there were hundreds of youngsters lined up to get in to the 16 cinema facility
My Netflix was at 24 hours but lately it is more in line with royce. If I return on Thursday they “receive” it the following Tuesday and then by Wednesday I have a new movie. When they ship it only takes 24 hours but they seem to be sitting on them. I only became aware of the lawsuit they lost for this same thing.
The Big Picture: The Box Office Indicator?
Link: . My wife and I went to an early movie last Friday (about 5:30). When we came out, there were hundreds of youngsters lined up to get in to the 16 cinema facility (Rave). The adults were hard to