Here’s some of the things I "learned" over the past few weeks:
The economy is great.
Reading comprehension is on the downslide.
Markets have gone up over the past 70 years – therefore, you should always be Bullish.
When you are dead wrong, never apologize. Just change the subject and move on.
Oil prices will come down eventually.
Big caps! No, really, this year, I mean it!
Stupid is as stupid does.
It is
bettereasier to fail conventionally then to succeed unsuccessfully.Jobs are plentiful.
Its good to know who your friends are.
Don’t bother reading — knee jerk responses to headlines are just fine.
Some people need to remove their socks to do math.
Inflation is no worry.
Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life, son.
Trolls are alive and well.
If you disagree with someone, it is an acceptable tactic to misquote something they said to make them look foolish.
Its easier to ask a stupid question than Google for the answer.
About 1/2 (plus or minus) of the criticism Cramer gets is undeserved.
Some people are lazy, others are less than geniuses, still others are outright hacks. A select few are all three.
The Status Quo has many supporters.
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
Bearish projections, but bullish short term posture, and disclosed long positions = Bear.
Why do you hate America?
Innumeracy lives.
People can be quite odd.
Borrowing money against an asset isn’t debt — its income!
Because PERMA-bears have been wrong for long periods of time, anyone who is Bearish is therefore wrong today.
That’s some catch, that Catch-22.
Rationalizations are more important than strategic thought.
Question this economy? You must be a member of the far left.
Behavioral economics is a fraud.
There are people who are chickenshit cowards.
True Contrarian thinking is exceedingly rare.
It is different this time.
Tell me about the rabbits, George.
Some people – despite putting up some pretty shoddy numbers – sure talk a lot of smack.
And that, as they say in show biz, is that.
Barry,
I officially started waving the BIG RED FLAG, yesterday. Go ahead, call me chicken little….
http://naybob.blogspot.com/2006/02/market-soapbox-021306.html
http://naybob.blogspot.com/2006/02/comment-on-market-soapbox-021306.html
OK call me names if you want but I read and comprehend at at least the 3rd grade level and I use a new fangled invention called a calkilator to do my sums (instead of my stinky feet). Here’s my take – the world is not coming to an end – while it is easy to make money in a bull market (whatever that is) it is only hard to make money in a bear market (whatever that is). Point – if you are somewhat intelligent, have an ounce of imagination and a smidgeon of creativity (and no I’m not going to look up the spelling of that word I don’t even think it is a word) coupled with a sense of time – you can make money.
Example – Cramer sucks at picking stocks but sometimes Cramer finds a good one. (ESLR comes to mind immediately). Doesn’t it behoove the wise trader to parse the picks and find the good ones? Since you know that there is already a built-in buying force you know it’s going to be supported. Just pick a target and when it is hit get out and no tears if it goes higher. There is always another trade tomorrow. Don’t be lazy, find it.
Example 2 – I don’t believe gold is a good hedge against inflation because I don’t believe in inflation. But when I see the miners take off doesn’t it behoove me to buy some? Deed it do, deed it do. Should I look at the environment, the economy, the “market” (in quotes because it too is a meaningless concept), or anything else? Nope – the miners are taking off, buy some. I did, made my targets, jumped off and am happy happy smile smile.
Some people look at the crash of 29 and say My God! I look at it and say “My God! Look what it did the next day.”
Point is – don’t let the bastards wear you out – smile, laugh, make money, be happy.
Come now Barry…take your dramamine like a good boy….there now… isn’t that better? :)
Sounds like it was a slow week for you Barry….
These days we seem to be seeing a lot of elaborate explanations of why traditional statistics or conventional wisdom are no longer relevant to the direction of the market or the economy. If those same statistics are backing your view up, you should feel more confident than the permabulls, who are stuck arguing that “this time it’s different” even though it almost never is.
BTW, I’m surprised you didn’t also learn that you shouldn’t stand next to the Vice President when he’s hunting.
I feel that the quality of TheStreet/RealMoney has been on the decline for some time (due largely in part to the attrition of some of its best writers). In fact, Guy, Helene and Barry are the only reasons I still maintain my subscription. However, the most recent exchange between Barry, Will, Cody, Jim and Mike is probably the tipping point for me. Like Barry, I am bearish on the markets over the next few years, but I will remain very short term bullish until my systems trigger long covering/short selling. I may be wrong about my stance, and it is difficult for me to understand the unbridled enthusiasm for the markets on display on certain “professional trading” websites. However, I would never engage in the level of patronizing/condescension I’ve seen from the bulls towards the bears of late, especially over a disagreement of OPINIONS.
“You think the markets are overvalued? Are you some kind of idiot?” seems to be the prevailing sentiment.
The worst part is that even if the markets totally implode over the next few years, many of these “pros” will live to fight another day.
In conclusion…………..maybe “Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life, son” isn’t such a bad thing.
what a refreshing list of true things.
-][
• The economy is great. NOT
• Reading comprehension is on the downslide. HOT!
• Markets have gone up over the past 70 years – therefore, you should always be Bullish. NOT
• Oil prices will come down eventually. NOT
• Big caps! No, really, this year, I mean it! NOT
• Stupid is as stupid does. HOT!
• Jobs are plentiful. NOT
• Inflation is no worry. NOT
• Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life, son. -Drunk and stupid for some of us, but hey, two out of three ain’t bad!
• Trolls are alive and well. -So are Gnomes. They love to take your Gold.
• If you disagree with someone, it is an acceptable tactic to misquote something they said to make them look foolish. -There are exceptions (Bill O’Reilly, George W. Bush)
• Its easier to ask a stupid question than Google for the answer. -I’m not asking!
• About 1/2 (plus or minus) of the criticism Cramer gets is undeserved. -Or, is Cramer half full or half empty? Or, if Cramer cries out in the woods, does he make a sound? (my favorite)
• The Status Quo has many supporters. -I’ve always fantasized about a name change. How does Mr. Quo sound? A China play?
• Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. -Mr. Greenspan, is that you?
• Why do you hate America? -Trick question. It’s because I love America.
• People can be quite odd. -See the Status Quo comment.
• Borrowing money against an asset isn’t debt — its income! -That’s what my mortgage lender told me! She even sent me the article she wrote. (disclosure, I am still renting)
• Because PERMA-bears have been wrong for long periods of time, anyone who is Bearish is therefore wrong today. -Pshaw! Nanook, the Mighty Eskimo Boy, is one of my champions. He walks miles across the frozen tundra and then he sticks a dog-doo snow cone in the fur trappers eye!
• That’s some catch, that Catch-22. -Quote of the day!
• Rationalizations are more important than strategic thought. -Why is that….? Oh sorry, I forgot about GOOGLE.
• Question this economy? You must be a member of the far left. – (little secret – I think most people are)
• Behavioral economics is a fraud. -Agreed! I prefer Jung over Skinner.
• It is different this time. -Always, forever, an absolute.
• Tell me about the rabbits, George. -Please do. I’ll pay to see this one!
Datizdat!
Barry, enjoy reading the blog..keep up the good work.
Bill
STICK TO YOUR GUNS. Yours will still be loaded after the RAGING (baby) bulls have shot their wa..er, blanks.
Congrats on the props from Covel’s site.
KEEP…IT…UP.
-waiting for GLD to hit 52.5-
Did about half of them come from last night’s reruns of “Family Guy”?
Excellent juxtaposition:
– Stupid is as stupid does.
Followed imediately by:
– It is [better] easier to fail conventionally then to succeed unsuccessfully.
Just how does one “succeed unsuccessfully?” Indeed, stupid is as stupid does.
“Some people are lazy, others are less than geniuses, still others are outright hacks. A select few are all three.”
Who you calling ‘less than genius’!?!
You’re gonna need a bigger boat.
Reading comprehension depends in large part on whether it is in the interest of the reader to understand.
Trolls are alive but, not well.
Where there’s smoke sometimes it is just smoke.
Worse than that, there is nobody behind the curtain.
What tax cuts really mean is a loss of revenue. (You wouldn’t do that to your dear Aunty Governor Gregoire, would you?)
A new life awaits you in the off world colonies. Why no, nobody has mentioned emerging markets to me. (In the last five seconds, anyway.)
People can be quite odd but, over time it evens out.
KHAAANNNN!!!!
When you are tempted to throttle a pompous twit for once again missing the point and misconstrewing your words, remember Bertrand Russell’s observation:
“A stupid man’s report of what a clever man says is never accurate, because he unconsciously translates what he hears into something he can understand.”
And then there’s the JS Mill classic, “Better to be Socrates dissatisfied than a pig satisfied.”
Not everyone agrees with Mill — some choose to be pigs. And they usually like to wrestle.
I agree with the poster about RealMonkey.com. The tenor of the site is getting less and less tolerable.
Perhaps it’s due to the long-biased, mega-majority on the site who are bitterly tired of the trading range market of the past 2+ years.
The thing that galls me most is the unwillingness of most of them (hello, Cody!) to acknowledge technical trading. Somehow they believe that fundamentals still rule the roost, despite all evidence to the contrary.
I think the crabby Marcin is the closest thing to a legit fundamentalist. But he only buys cheap. You can’t go too wrong buying cheap so long as you are willing to wait…and wait…and wait.
For those who make fun of technicals, just look at some charts. Then notice that hedge funds now have 2.5x the assets they did at the 99-00 top. These folks often turn over their holdings daily. That has a big influence. I read that 30% of the Nikkei/Japan trading right now is hedge funds. Hedge fund assets—as a pct of total market cap—are now over 6%. They were around 2% in 99-00.
THen look at NYSE member prop trading as a pct of total vol. It’s about 23% right now. It was about 4% in 99-00. Program trading is now 60-70% of avg weekly vol. You think these folks trade on fundamentals?
That’s the market we have. And it’s ALL technical. If you’re a fundamentalist, you’re swimming upstream. You have to buy cheap, or hope to ride the trends until they crash, otherwise you’ll be blown out of the water.
Here’s more fundamental cretinism today from your pal Cody at realmoney: “I’m quite optimistic about the long-term prospects for every country in the world…as the communications revolution (cell-phone teledensity and Internet access) keeps building.”
Hey, who doesn’t luv the Internets?
There have been many breakthru technologies over the past 125 years that have brought people closer together and improved communications—telephone, telegraph, television, satellites, air travel all come to mind.
Did any of those inventions prevent wars and bring us permanent peace?
I didn’t think so.
But of course, silly me, I forgot that “this time is different.”
Oops! I am not alone. Lots of angry people out there.
Glad to see when the revolution comes I’ll have help lining people up against the wall. Phew! And I thought I’d have to do it alone.
BArry-the boys over on RM can be pretty pompous-that Marcin guy….would love to see his performance numbers…the guy pours salt on the wound of all his conquests…his time will come. Cody-I think he just likes to start an argument at times.
Of course things are great. The retail sales numbers beat expectations handily. What that means for the savings rate boggles the mind, though.
I used to think Serenity was peace of mind, but now I know it’s just a spaceship.
http://nasdaqtrader.blogspot.com/2006/02/barry-ritholtz-is-god.html
Barry, you basically said just about everything that has been going through my mind since Jan 1. I am not worthy, so I dedicated a post to you that is appropriately titled.
‘The Status Quo has many supporters.’
Well, they should. ‘Pictures of Matchstick Men’ remains a loopy, psuedo-psychedelic classic. I treasure my scatchy 45 rpm, clung to since I bought it in the late ’60s.
Such a hypnotically stupid guitar riff. Far out.
Markets have gone up over the past 70 years – therefore, you should always be Bullish.
Being less than bullish makes you automatically an UNMURKAN Osama-loving traitor. Conformist demands for unquestioning ‘optimism’ and the contempt for those who dissent is an ugly trait of American culture.
President numbnuts warned us about such manimals in the SOTU…..-The hyena-bull lives!
Cody would be outta there by now if all of us gals didn’t beg RM to keep him around as eye candy.
But Rev – gong him!