This past week saw a lot of Real Estate related data, all of which fits our long term thesis about the macro economy and what’s to come over the next few years.
For those of you who may be newer to the site, we have been dicussing this for quite a while: starting in December 2004, we noted how Real Estate was a prime driver of the economy, and in Spring 2005, how new hiring was overly reliant on the Real Estate Sector; in August 2005, we called that Housing was beginning to show signs of cooling, and that this would eventually wreak havoc on consumer spending. In the Fall 2005, we noted how dependent GDP had become on Mortgage Equity extraction. You can find all of these by using the site search function, right sidebar.
Now as of March 2006, most of these concepts have become widely recognized and (mostly) accepted — but when they were first introduced here, there was no small amount of incredulity and pushback surrounding them.
Looking forward, I see rates rising, housing cooling further, the consumer cutting back, and the stimulus driven economy slowing, if not slipping into an outright recession.
Home Sweet Debt By WALTER KIRN
Does taking on greater financial risk to own a house prevent you from bonding with it?QUESTIONS FOR BRUCE KATZ Battle for the ‘Burbs Interview by DEBORAH SOLOMON
The metropolitan-policy expert talks about the decay of older suburbs, the merits of long commute times and why the suburbs might endanger democracy.
FREAKONOMICS Endangered Species By STEPHEN J. DUBNER and STEVEN D. LEVITT
Why the boom wasn’t more lucrative for real-estate agents — and why they may now be heading for extinction.
AMSTERDAM HOUSE This Very, Very Old House By RUSSELL SHORTO
What the story of one 400-year-old house in Amsterdam can tell us about today’s housing market.
SPECULATOR Après Le Deluge, Moi By GARY RIVLIN
How Patrick Quinn is trying to become the Donald Trump of New Orleans.
TAX BREAK Who Needs the Mortgage-Interest Deduction? By ROGER LOWENSTEIN
Most people think of the tax break on mortgage interest as fair social policy intended to make respectable homeowning citizens of us all. They are wrong.
VACATION-HOME HUNTER Club Med for the Multimillionaire Set By SUSAN DOMINUS
Tim Blixseth, founder of the exclusive Yellowstone Club, wants his superrich club members to unwind, even if he can’t.
THEORIST Home Economics By JON GERTNER
Why do houses cost so much when there’s plenty of land to build on? Is public housing a good thing? Why do people still move to Detroit? Ed Glaeser has some answers.