This is the regular gig:
Today’s Kudlow & Company, is on CNBC today at 5pm. I’m scheduled to be on from 5:00 to 6:00 pm.
Its almost the regular crew: is Marketwatch’s Herbert Greenberg and John Rutledge of Rutledge Capital. Noah Blackstein is back in rehab, and replacing him is David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors.
Topics will include the China, China and China. Also, the market rally, rates, Gold and Oil. And China.
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UPDATE: April 21, 2006 5:46am
I watched the show late last night, and it was pretty good — at least I didn’t stammer, and my wild gesticulating hands did a minimum of flailing.
In the heat of the moment, I forgot or didn’t get to a few things:
1) I have to pull the Ned Davis research on earnings that shows by the time we get to great earnings, (Mother’s milk! Arggh) its way late in the cycle. Ideal stock entry points are when earnings go from really awful to merely bad. By the time we are seeing double digit positives, most equity gains are already banked;
2) Special hat tip on the Short Shorts goes to Crossing Wall Street (and of course I blanked at that moment — sorry guys!)!>
looking forward to your thoughts on the market. hopefully kudlow will moderate a decent discussion this time.
by the way, i think i found cody’s senior photo. check it out…
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v121/hogarth/roadcody.jpg
Yeah, yeah, yeah but what about China? The last time we got worried about this it was Japan, Japan, Japan. But of course, it is different this time.
well, that was an hour of my life i’ll never get back. anytime someone began to say something insightful kudlow cut them off. the currency trader was the best of the bunch imo.
no offense, but you have an interesting spin…. you espouse all these bearish indicators on your site yet you’re always a bull on kudlow (at least in the near term as it’s convenient when the dow hits new highs)…. hmmmmmmmm… keep that rain dance going, sooner or later you’re gonna be right and it’s gonna rain.
Kudlow needs a big red lightbulb in front of him which starts flashing when he fillibusters more than 15 seconds.
I think an lobotomy would be more suitable.
Youknowme:
My position has been very consistent since the beginning of the year — 11,800 Dow and Nazz 2600 1st half, then ugliness.
I did previously think we could top in March, but late in that month, I pushed that out to May (See “One More Time?”)
China? IRAN!
Just got through CBC’s documentary on Nuclear Jihab. Interviewed were big names including Condoleeza Rice.
The machine has been turned on… we’re being prepped or brain washed if you’re a cynic.
Nuclear Jihab? Jihab is what they wear; Jihad is what they do.
Oh the brainwashing spin already started with that BS “they can have a nuke in 16 days!!!!” trash coming out of State Dept. Yes, they could IF they had 12x the number of linked centrifuges that they actually have which took them a decade to get up, these would have then have to be running non-stop, they would need enough mid grade uranium feedstock to put into them, and a missile capable of delivery across half the globe NONE OF WHICH THEY HAVE.
(Israel has nukes, it’s mutually assured destruction, they won’t strike Israel even if they had a nuke)
We all know Kudblow the Klown is nothing but a winger shill who got run out of Bear Stearns because he was a raging cokehead. Sorry Barry, I know the weekly gig puts food on your table, and you have incentive to appease him, but I calls em like I sees em.
How about this Barry, I’ll just stop commenting on all things Kudlow. I obviously have nothing good to say about him, so I’ll stick to topical threads from now on and keep the nasties to myself. Don’t want to stink up your blog, which is a good one btw.
Alaskan Pete , the self-censoring commenter starts a new craze and the blog traffic falls off a cliff. Nice neat and tidy blogs everywhere…Ok better stop commenting on commenters from here on out.
Over
This is a Great Blog. Some friends and I have been following it for over a year or so and have found the Straight Up analysis quite helpful in trying to understand this Markets behavior.
A couple of things I’m continuing to having difficulty with is that in the midst of increasingly higher Oil prices (and from the $wtic chart they look like they’re going higher– after a nice pullback), increased liquidity, or ‘money printing’ by the Federal Reserve, the MEW’s over the last couple of years, how the Federal Goverment and Federal Reserve can report (but more importantly Act) as though Inflation is benign. It would seem that with all of this money floating continuing to be pumped into the economy and the high costs of Oil factoring into to the price of goods and services Inflation would be much higher than what’s being reported.
However, for the last couple of years it seems to me, that nearly all of the economic numbers have and continue to look too ‘Stellar’ to be believable. Being that whatever Wall Street looks or hopes for — it seems to nearly always get.
I agree with one of the articles that was posted here some time ago– that the Federal Government is ‘Juicing’ some of the Data — but also on wages, productivity, retail sales, rate of employment etc. — and Wall Street just seems to Gobble it all up, or they Gobble up the ‘CNBC /BLOOMBERG Headline Numbers’.
So we have the Federal Reserve worried about taking interest rates too far, but increasing them nevertheless because they’re worried about Inflation (are they really???), and we have the Federal Reserve continuing to pump up the money supply (M3’s not being reported anymore right?) into the economy through repurchase agreements (Repos), outright transactions, etc. and we have some concepts I’m still trying to get a handle on — M2 and (M3) “Velocity”.
Maybe the increased levels of M2 or M3– the money supply (and Velocity) do not affect the overall performance of the Stock Market. (Perhaps a well documented long term Chart compared to a long term Chart of the Dow/S&P 500 would be helpful).
But if not, in the Midst of sustained higher Oil Prices, higher consumer debt, higher interest rates, higher Inflation (Energy, Healthcare, Education, Food etc.), the increasing costs of the war in Iraq, the rebuilding costs of Katrina, the growing issue with Iran, I’m having a very hard time understanding just what is keeping this Stock Market going higher (another ‘Leading” economic indicator) and the sentiment on Wall Street living in this all too Rosy/ Goldilocks scenario.
Or maybe, as some have repeatedly said, it’s just Denial.
Ooops! What a laugh. More preoccupied with nuclear vs. atomic than the d!
John is referring to “Juiced Data”