Everyone on Kudlow & Company tonite was Bullish.
Everyone.
Sheesh! That’s no way to end a sell-off.
Alex, I’ll take Complacency for $100 . . .
June 5, 2006 5:37pm by Barry Ritholtz
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Definitely a hard day to end with a bullish call, but I think we’ll definitely test the highs before we see a big time sell-off.
Everyone is trading on this 1/4 point hike at the end of the month, so today’s sell-off might just be a short trade and a test of the lows before going higher.
We have a complacency pandemic on our hands–and they always end badly.
Bruce Sherman
Oakland, Oregon
Barry,
Serious question about the show-perhaps tough to answer. I think everyone wants to buy the bullish scenario but the “everything is great” outlook, regardless if it is right or wrong will not hurt anyone.
What will hurt people are the things that can go wrong. No matter when the next recession comes that is a thing to worry about.
Great topline growth, whether we have it now or not, will not hurt portfolios so why talk about it?
Hopegully my point is coming across, my question is does Larry think about this sort of thing? He can be wildly bullish and still explore understand the threats to the market.
What a joke. Today’s show should have been called “Kudlow and Echo Chamber” or – more appropriately perhaps – “Kudlow and Sychophants”.
BINGO! This sell-off hasn’t even begun. Why? Exactly due to the info on this post…complacency. Everyone is looking at TODAY’s nice earnings, and, being the linear creatures we humans are, they are extrapolating that these good earnings extend into infinity. That’s why volume is light (yet point damage is heavy) so far into this sell-off because the “professionals” don’t think there is anything to worry about (yet).
disclosure: I’m short (mostly ’04 & ’05 market winners)
Thanks Barry for running your blog. Extremely informative. Keep up the good work.
Actually I’m pretty bullish, after a 199 point discount it seems likely a profitable point to enter.
But then again my trading compass is about 180 degrees off, so I should be doing the opposite.
VirtualStockExchange account is down 8.16% in the past 20 days! :)
But my real cash is in the moneymarkets
That energy correspondent of theirs (Melissa something) never fails to take every possible opportunity to talk energy down. Did I hear that chick from Forbes make a $40 oil call? Looks like they’ve revised Forbes target for 2005 up $5.
It’s so hard to be bearish on energy when this is the other side of the trade.
Did that make any sense? If these are the best bears they can come up with, it’s hard to be a bear.
Seems like a great contrarian indicator to me.
and cramer was saying to buy , buy , buy …. WTF ?!
Tomorrow could get ugly.
See I don’t know about that. I think we’ll get atleast a pop at first. The trin ended at 2.83 for the day. Usually when the $TRIN ends at a level that high we see at least a small pop the next day.
I loaded up on some ETFs right before the close: QQQQ, SPY & IWM.
Also, it seems like the sell off was so sharp and so quick today that the $VIX looks overbought again.
If nothing else I’m bullish for the first part of trading tomorrow. After that it’s up in the air.
There is a big wall of worry out there. Nearly everyone is afraid of missing the next bounce.
Bearish for housing? USA Today notices mortgages are at 6.66% just in time for 6/6/06! LOL
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/housing/2006-05-31-mortgages_x.htm
5 for 5 Kulow & Cramer guests are OWNED by one Corporate Trading Firm or another, and are MORE than willing to sell Joe Six-Pack up the river, if it scores them some dough… They are whores after their own money, and well, although Joe Six-Pack watches the show, and falls for their BS, the guests are NOT talking to THEM, they are talking to the 5% club of investing America, and HOWLING at the little doofuses who actually listen to them.
GREEEEEEED.
–mf
per Dave:
“If nothing else I’m bullish for the first part of trading tomorrow. After that it’s up in the air.”
If things are not above breakeven for you by 11:00 EDT, then my suggestion is to whistle up the dogs and head for the truck because the rest of the day is not going to get better for a long.
If the market is up in the first 45 minutes (or turning up at the end of that period) it will (barring bad news) probably remain up. If it is down or turning down in that period it will probably continue down. I watch the DIA/SPY for the prevailing direction.
Personally I’d like to see 4 more down days with some volume. That would get us to a real bottom and all you bears could go back into hibernation.