"Don’t fight the Fed."
Remember that phrase? Apparently, quite a few people don’t, especially the "One & Done" crowd. Those nincompoops finally got their comeuppance; Its a shame so many other people had to get dragged down along with them.
The Nasdaq fell for sixth straight sessions, and is now at a seven-month low. Since the recent highs in May, the Dow has dropped 6.5%, Nazzie is off 8%, and the SPX slid 5.5%. YTD, the Dow and the S&P are barely above water, while the Nasdaq 100 is off about 6%. With the markets finishing their worst week in a year, investor nervousness is now considerably higher.
But enough of that stuff. Its Saturday morning, and you know what that means: Linkfest !
• Good riddance! With Zarqawi Down, that leaves Bin Laden and al-Masri to Go; There’s an untold anti-terror success story is to our North: The RCMP foiled dozen plots in past two years;
• In Barron’s, a not nice trader’s joke complains we got "The Wrong Guy"
— i.e, Zarqawi instead of Bernanke. I started out on a trading desk,
and I know harsh gallows humor reveals that its tough out there (duh).• Liz Rappaport says the Market is suffering from Too Much Information; While Bernanke takes all the heat, a new Consensus is Developing: Blame Greenspan;
• Also in Barron’s, a look at a 100 year chart of the Dow (via Rydex) showing post crash markets. (if no Barron’s sub, go here). Readers of the Cult of the Bear will recognize that chart; the chart in Barrons is misleading. This chart is more instructive than the flawed Rydex version.
• While I am whining, the usually excellent Floyd Norris makes what I think is a bad read of CPI’s Owner’s Equivalent Rent in his column Friday. I tihnk this is a better way to think about this.
• James Stack (whom I’ve been reading for years) says in Forbes a Recession is Dead Ahead; Smart Money offers suggestions as to what to do in the Bear Necessities
• From a trading perspective, Jeff Saut explains How Long These Selloffs Typically Last; Mark Hulbert notes the mixed sentiment picture, and suggests We may not have seen market’s bottom yet;
• A few weeks ago, I told Forbes "Art of Investing" why Japan was a short, big cap tech is dreck, and 30% SPX corrections are far more common than most investors realize. (Video)
• The Art Market is still red hot, and "Over time, there’s a high correlation between auction sales and financial indices."
• Imagine what would happen if the Federal Government kept its accounting the way Enron did? Bad news, kids — according to Mallon Associates, they already do: Government by Enron;
• In last Sunday’s NYT, Dan Gross had a good article on When Sweet Statistics Clash With a Sour Mood; We take the analysis a little further here: Statistical Measures Fail to Capture Reality;
• Speaking of Dan Gross: "John Snow will have a replacement, and he may very well come from the
corporate world. But if it’s an A-list Wall Street CEO, I’ll buy a copy
of Dow 36,000 and eat the first chapter." So wrote Gross last month, and true to his words, he eats them here.• A fast round up of some good Trading issues:
–Charlie Munger’s Ideas That Will Make You Money
–The Greatest Emotional Problem Facing Traders
-Be Your Own Rocket Scientist: five advanced technologies for traders
• I always make it a point to read people whose styles and/or outlooks differ from mine, and you can do alot worse than Rev Shark. Even though our methodologies are night and day, I always find something of value in his trading diary. I strongly disagree, however, with his view that the Big Picture — broad theories or themes — are unneccessary for traders. (As to trading off of forecasts, however, I completely agree)
• Some odd and interesting stories about Hedgies: Hedgestock is Woodstock (The Who included) for Hedge fund managers, held at a "gargoyle-encrusted mansion north of London." In Greenwich CT, Vanity Fair looks at the excess of Outrageous Fortunes complete with Google Earth snaps of Hedge fund mansions. The NY Review of Books disucsses The Rich and Everyone Else.
• Jim Rogers disucsses Emerging Markets; Alan Greenspan opines that Pricey oil no big deal, yet; One explaination for the rise in Gold is Russia’s stealth demand
• The war between Google and Microsoft escalates. I suspect Google is taking aim at Microsoft’s P/E: Now We’re Getting Serious
• Speaking of Mister Softee: This mash up of MSFT CEO Steve Ballmer and Young Frankenstein is hysterical; My personal favorite remains the Ballmer’s Developers-remix.
• 5 words: Don’t Cross the Debt Bitch
• A good collection of the 25 top Music sites;
• I love it when this sort of stuff happens: An obscure band/solo artist I really like — Jonathan Bates, recording as Mellodrone — has this great song Fashionably Uninvited, off of his EP, A Demonstration of Intellectual Property, that no one has ever heard. (I used it in a mix in 2004). Anyway, Bates has fleshed out the band with a guitarist, keyboardist/bassist and drummer. Best part of all, they released a new disc which includes the forementioned tune, freshly remixed. You can download the MP3 from the band’s site here: Fashionably Uninvited.
• My more recent musical find was the 4 disc set, This is Reggae Music. It is a tour de force, a history of Reggae (and by extension, hip-hop) going back half a century. If your only exposure to Reggae is ska and Bob Marley and the Wailers, then you need to check out this set. Some of the covers (Ken Boothe’s cover of Bread’s Everything I Own, and Tony Tribe’s cover of Neil Diamond’s Red Red Wine), and originals covered by pop artists are astonishingly fresh, despite their age. I have been playing this to death all week. This is already the frontrunner for best set of this year.
• The new season of Entourage kicks off Sunday night, along with a few other HBO comedies. From last season’s show, I found I Changed My Mind by Lyrics Born via You Tube (animated music video) — its the best hip hop tune I’ve heard in a long time (maybe cause its sung and not rapped).
• While lots of new movies are opening this and next week, let me suggest an overlooked gem: The Fabulous Baker Boys. It only did $17m in box office in 1989. Its a terrific movie, reminscent of a 1940s romance. In addition to the great music and all around terrific performances, the showstopper is Michelle Pfeiffer, "clad in a slinky dress, rolling around on top of a piano while she purrs out a languid version of "Makin’ Whoopee." Don’t miss it.
• What book do you wish you read 20 years ago? My nominee is the Richest man in Babylon (not to be confused with Thievery Corporation’s trip hop CD, The Richest Man in Babylon) — a deceptively simple but rich set of parables about finacial
management and personal finance. Evenmore surprising is its original
publication date: 1926. I cannot recommend this book highly enough.• This R/C Airplane demonstration is astounding !
Thats all, folks!
But but but….. “There is no inflation” sez Lying Larry Kudlow..
So people who disagree with you are nincompoops? Do you apologize, directly, by name, when the “nincompoops” ae right and you are wrong? Or are you one of those guys who have never been wrong?
Neither investment nor the world in general runs better on chest thumping and trash talk. Why stoop to doing it?
BR: No, the People who have been insisting for 9 months that you MUST own US equities because the Fed is “One and Done” are nincompoops — which is actually a much nicer word than what I was actually thinking . . .
When are the nincompoops and buffoons ever right?
Explain why the history of reggae is by extension a history of hip hop?
No, the People who have been insisting for 9 months that you MUST own US equities because the Fed is “One and Done” are nincompoops — which is actually a much nicer word than what I was actually thinking . . .