This is the regular gig : Today’s Kudlow & Company, is on CNBC today at 5pm. I’m scheduled to be on from 5:20 to 6:00 pm.
Today I am gabbing with regulars John Rutledge of Rutledge Capital and Herb Greenberg of MarketWatch. Also appearing: Jeff Saut of Raymond James (who I mentioned the other day) And I think we may see Michael Thompson of Thomson Financial
Subjects will be W&R (whackage and reversal).
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UPDATE: June 8, 2006 8:54pm
That was interesting . . . I like that Kudlow pulled Jeff Saut from here. (The raw Power! Who shall I push for next? Muhoohoohoohaha . . . erg ackk — where was I?)
I’ll try to highlight some other players whose work I like in the coming weeks.
Also, there’s this good news: With the Apprentice toast, Kudlow & Company will take their time slot, starting next week — that’s right, you can see the show prime time, from 8pm to 9pm.
So that means that the K&C Index for tonight should be 100% bullish. Kudlow will find a way to ask the question so everyone is a bull. What does that make the index?
Volume preceeds price. Unless a lonely Fed member opines openly on any topic, it’s over. The rise to S&P 1320, more or less started tonight. See you there in about 3 or 4 weeks.
Me, I’m selling my stuff at about 1310 – 1315. Regardless, there will be another fall in late July. That one will be minor. That will be a time to go long and sell again, maybe around S&P 1325-1330? Then the big Fall drop. Woo Woo.
AAII survey today down to 25% Bulls from 55% a month ago, 10 to 1 down/up volume, retesting the lows near the 200 day, along with these long dangling Hammer candlesticks are the main reason for the long trade.
Note that on RM, alot of commentors are eschewing bottom calling — Cody, Alan Farley, Bob Marcin, Cramer — I thought that (after the fact) was interesting
I used to read John Rutledge’s blog but his posts devolved to mentioning the shows he was going to appear on, and he doesn’t allow commenting on his site without approval (meaning he has to approve of your ideas too).
I’m no longer a reader of that blog. Thanks for substance here, Barry, and keep up the good work!
BTW out of curiousity what is the average age / profession of readers here? I’m 25 and don’t have much experience, so I mostly lurk here, but I’m amazed at the wealth of knowledge. Hopefully I can catch up, despite being an engineer by trade :)
-TexasHippie
I wish someone on Kudlows ‘production staff’ would slip him a tranquilizer (preferably in 1 pound tablet form), or maybe administer him with a shot of some type of muscle relaxant about an hour or so before his show, to take care of those erratic — convulsive head movements when he’s spewing his bullish outlook on the market and economy. While the convulsions, gymnastics, involuntary muscular contractions or whatever neurological disorder it is that is ailing Kudlow provide some comic relief, ultimately it’s becoming very distracting.
Rutledge and Kudlow got too into having a political axe to grind. Once someone goes that route they lose all perspective and objectivity – and alot of credibility.
Re: the merry band of bullish pundits reluctance to call a bottom.
It indicates they are scared that this is not the bottom, which is reflected in your AAII stat on bullish%. When even the permabull camp are soiling their pants to the point that none of them will call a bottom, the bottom is probably already in.
Notice that “bullish pundits” is too close to “bullshit pundits” for mere coincidence.
“erratic — convulsive head movements when he’s spewing…the convulsions, gymnastics, involuntary muscular contractions”?
You think it could be a “neurological disorder” eh?
I would venture that the years of hard core substance abuse have something to do with it. And a mutated chromosome #22 (aka the “Clown gene”).
cramer has called a bottom at least twice now, hasn’t he? last week he was fonduing his squeezy bears and cutting into them with an electric knife. what a waste.
i just dont see a bottom yet …. the volume up today was pretty weak…. technicians please reply
Well, Kudlow is biased on bullish side, but he is also very knowledgeable. No need to make a personal attack on him. It seems to me he is much more knowledgeable than Maria B. and Bob P.
I don’t see a bottom either. If this really is liquidity driven then every time we get a tightening the market is pretty much going to go lower.
I’m with Larry on gold. Its going lower. Too many people think BB has inflation under control. Iran and others may buy gold but its not going to break the previous peak UNLESS BB gets behind with inflation and I don’t think that is going to happen now. Who knows, maybe BB uses gold as one of his signals and maybe it is targeted now.
I’m cringing every time I hear “long term secular bull” and “commodities”. I think that is broken, I just don’t think the market realizes it yet. With declining liquidity/inflation its a different story than it was in the ’70s.
Alaskan Pete-
Don’t all bulls “snort”? ;)
A/P-
You were heavily into the metals weren’t you? What do you think of this action? I bet you have been out for awhile (as I have been).
I was out earning money and working and enjoying parenthood so I only saw the last 30 seconds. What I saw was sad. Sad for Larry Kudlow.
You say you see difficulties going forward fully acknowledging rearview reported earnings, Larry Kudlow says “So you are calling for 1933” and your “No, 1973” rejoinder gets buried in the exit music.
Whatever else may have transpired you deserve better.
I wish Barry would ask Kudlow to bar Jed Baboon from the show. That guy is too much like Ben Stein.
me2200,
Bill Cara has many excellent comments about gold. It is not only inflation. Until we get out this double deficit, and G-20 gets their act together, people will realize dollar/euro/yen is just “paper” money. S&P has warned that US could lose top rating by 2012. Now, everything can happen, but I believe the case for gold is quite strong.
yc32: I hope you are right. I rode gold from $560 to $720ish this time. I’m waiting for a bottom, but I am leery its going to repeat.
If BB keeps hiking rates, the US dollar is going to be fine. Demand for gold will be minimal as a safe currency. I’m assuming there isn’t going to be a liquidity crisis. If I’m wrong, let me know.
Next question. How high are interest rates going to go ?
Next question: does anyone think the rebound we saw at 11AM today was due to an emergency injection of liquidity somewhere ? Sure seemed to turn around quickly…
“Next question: does anyone think the rebound we saw at 11AM today was due to an emergency injection of liquidity somewhere ? Sure seemed to turn around quickly… ”
Just as fast as this liquidity came in …. i can see some people wanting to lock in profits on any bounce.
still shorting every bounce.
“Next question. How high are interest rates going to go ?”
Quite a bit higher. My WAG is fed funds to 6%
Whack-A-Mole!!!!!!!
We may get a relief rally here, but every time the indices peak their heads up whack-em with all you got!!!
Nice interview. Think Kudlow did a good job moderating. It’s plainly clear nobody can predict the future. I love how they’ve all called the commodities speculative bubble now that gold is off $100. It’s comical.
My oppinion (which is worth what you’re paying for it)…. Liquidity is drying up. Wealth is being destroyed. Margin calls have to be met. Derivatives are exagerating the selling pressure… Sell the rallies until it proves you wrong.
Mark,
Yeah I dumped all the metals and O&G plays on short term trendline breaks and inventory builds respectively. Was about a week early on the O&G plays and about a week late on the metals, but it’s hard to argue with the end result.
A/P-
Where do you see yourself re-entering the miner trade? Until they disconnect from the market , its hard to see getting back in them. Put on a spec play yesterday at the lows and got it stopped out today. Ouch! Overall though they have been “Berry , berry good to me.”
stay away from the miners and stick to the commodity, namely gold if and when the goldbugs get nervous and capitulate. although the price of gold has risen substantially over the past 6 months or so, the miners profits have slipped due to the cost to get the gold out. that ratio should change in the next few months or so, but don’t be surprised to see some pretty sub-par earnings come july. the gold price minus extraction costs have hit a new low this week since november. i would stay away from the miners.
erik-
That explains their weak performance on that unbelievable move off the March lows. They never got out of second gear. In the November to February period they were smokin’.
I agree that the goldbugs are nowhere near capitulation and won’t be as long as gold has a 6 handle on it. Move it into the 5s and a lot of people will get real sick.
25% Bulls from 55% a month ago?! Nice conviction bulls… local authorities would be posting guards at the sides of bridges on a 10% decline for sure! Glad these people don’t live in Brazil right now.
Sure BB can keep raisining rates and prop up the dollar…..if he wants to throw us into a massive recession. Just the effect on the housing market alone will be catastrophic. And what about the deficits?
But then again, if they don’t keep raising rates, we’ll have a dollar fall and tons of price inflation.
The way I see it, they’ve gotten us into a no win situation. In the end, they will choose low rates because of our deficits, and to benefit the debtors (us) at the expense of the creditors (foreigners). And it will be painful. Gold is still a great buy, but I wouldn’t be suprised to see more declines in the short term.
oh, but don’t worry about it. The white house says everything is going great!
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060608/bush_economic_forecast.html?.v=4
The most fascinating part for me is how this affects Europe. Although a completely uninformed opinion, I think if we get a decent recession Europe comes with it. If we get a mild recession with monetary expansion, it seems the Euro is a good long term investment. More informed opinion would be appreciated.
I think BB’s desire to keep the interest rates low is what is causing him to act hard NOW rather than later. The worse the inflation gets the more rate hikes will be needed to get it under control.
If he acts hard now, maybe he can get inflation under control without resorting to really high interest rates. Sure, the economy might go into recession, but given the liquidity everyone was used to, I think that was inevitable.
everyday it seems more liquidity is being removed …. the sell off is not over. with all the money coming out it is not going to be placed back in the market just yet…. probably after BB raises 50 basis points…
the amount of volume the first 1/2 of the day was a lot greater than the 2nd 1/2
Alaskan Pete and Mark you guys are cracking me up.
I can’t read this blog at work anymore without giggling and then everyone knows I am shirking.
Thanks.
Ned-
Yes, my trading is a tragi-comedy the last 3 days….. :)