Barron’s picks up “Short-Term Pop?”

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Last Week’s RR&A Market Letter was picked up over the weekend by the print edition of Barron’s; Here’s what they ran in the MARKET WATCH section:

Short-Term Pop
RR&A Market Letter
Ritholtz Research &
Analytics

230 Park Ave., New York, N.Y. 10169

Aug. 16: The past quarter’s data show raw materials rose at an annualized rate of 43%. You read that correctly.

So where does that leave us today?

The consumer-price index today showed more inflation than yesterday’s producer-price-index headline; but the core (inflation ex-inflation) was a little light. We prefer to rely on the trend, rather than the outliers, and this number broke the trend of four-straight higher CPI numbers. Since the market chose to ignore the actual basis for the dis-inflation yesterday, today’s action may very well be a tell: If the markets rally them anyway, look for owners’ equivalent rent to become the excuse. [The Dow rose 96.86 points Wednesday.]

The reality is that it is an options-expiration week, and traders seem to have higher prices on the collective hive mind….There’s too much pent-up energy, index shorts are too crowded, and we suspect there are too many funds that are underinvested. Thus, we have the makings of a short-term pop, which could last from four days to four weeks. These are the times where data [are] irrelevant-to paraphrase Thin Lizzy, "When the boys want to play, you better let them."

— Barry Ritholtz


Source:
Short-Term Pop
ANITA PELTONEN
MARKET WATCH, A Sampling of Advisory Opinion   

Barron’s MONDAY, AUGUST 21, 2006   
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB115594229184139923.html 

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Discussions found on the web:
  1. yc32 commented on Aug 21

    Somebody on Kudlow & Co. mentioned that US had one recession every decade or so. After googled the US GDP rate on internet, I found that was almost true.

    Barry, do you have any perspective, or data on this? It seems that a slower economy with temporary bear market is more likely than a recession, given we just had one in 2000.

  2. Barry Ritholtz commented on Aug 21

    From 1921-2006, there were 16 recessions:

    1921
    1923
    1926
    1929
    1937
    1945
    1949
    1953
    1957
    1960
    1970
    1974
    1980
    1981
    1990
    2001

  3. mh497 commented on Aug 21

    In terms of a recession every 10 years, notice the situation in the 1970-81 time period, where we had 4 in an 11 year period.

    What was going on during that time period?

    Oil shock, war, inflation, rinse, repeat.

    Sound familiar?

  4. Bill L commented on Aug 21

    If we compute GDP and CPI using pre Clinton computations I would argue a consumer led recession is hear and now. Nix exotic financing and your default/foreclosure statistics go parabolic-end of the illusion?

  5. yc32 commented on Aug 21

    Thank you all for the comments! I sure hope we don’t go to a recession.

  6. Mark commented on Aug 22

    Good lord Barry! How did THAT get in?

  7. Leisa commented on Aug 22

    I thought that all of the links were to illustrate a point…the reliance of easy credit and maxing out one’s borrowing ability. Instead, it’s Credit Resources Attacks! Take cover.

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