Ouch. A pair of painful days in a holiday shortened week. Way to start the new school year. The biggest surprise was the continuing lack of volume. Anecdotally, I have heard of many fund managers people still on vacation. I supposed the week after Labor Day is the real start of the Fall? When did that happen?
No matter. Once we geth thru a crass orgy of 9/11 commercializations (a comedic novel? A commerative coin?), we will get down to business. Crude was down 4%, Gold was down 2%, all the major US indices were negative.
But its the weekend, and you know what business that means: the festivus linkus!
Investing and Trading
An overview: Bullish, Bearish and Neutral factors to watch;
• Lets have a bit of a Yin & Yang today:
• Chart Attack: FTSE, SPX, Copper, Gold
• Pretty good guide: How To Start A Hedge Fund
• The Dow’s average performance for each calendar month since 1950 shows the strongest upward bias in stocks has historically occurred during the November-January time frame.
• Have you recently looked at the World Equity Returns?
Oil, OPEC & Energy
• OPEC meets Monday, with Oil at 5 month lows. If it drops towards support near $60m, might the cartel curtail output?
• The Folly of Forecasting: You already know my views on this, and now we have wquantitative evidence. Nouriel Roubini points out 95% of Forecasters Predicted No Recession in 2001 (Too Bad the Recession Had Already Begun). Crossing Wall Street shows just how inaccurate economists GDP forecasts have been.
• The BBC gets melodramtic with The end of the American dream?
• August had a big uptick in Layoff announcements
• The good news about the Housing Slowdown is It May Let Fed Stay on Hold; The bad news is the Builders are imploding; What does this say to those who like to buy cheap P/E cyclical stocks in front of a slowdown?
• A survey by the Fed found a Big Surge in ‘Non-Prime’ Mortgages in ’05
• In Detroit, where many industrial jobs have been lost: Thousands of homes swamp the market.
• The Key is a new NYT property/real estate magazine
• I haven’t seen much evidence of a correlation between the US and Japan’s Housing markets, but I found this Cautionary Housing Tale from Japan interesting nonetheless.
• Shiller’s Graph on US Home values, 1890-2006 (What the hell happened in 1997?)
Technology, Science, Internet, Fun
• The new Web geniuses: How slackers with one dopey idea are getting rich;
• What some people have called the best TV ad ever made.
• Robotic Frisbees of Death: They are real, and they are hunting for bad guys.
• Popular Mechanics (?!) Debunks 9/11 Myths
• Real Estate fraud turns violent (Warning: Graphic Video) Here’s a simple moral: If you are accused of fraud, its probably not the greatest idea to physically attack the reporter on camera.
Music Film TV Books
• Interesting new book: This Is Your Brain on Music: The Science of a Human Obsession
• Steve Colbert on the increasing nichefication of pop culture: Crumbelievable;
• Since when does Al Franken have a new movie?
On a personal note, I am already sick of the 9/11 "celebrations." Can’t we have a more dignified way to honor our dead?