The Onion’s amusing take on the markets (a sign of the times):
If ever there were a reflection of the present sentiment, this is it.
Stock Market Invinciple
October 28, 2006 1:30pm by Barry Ritholtz
This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client. References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. The Compound Media, Inc., an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here: https://www.ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers Please see disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/blog-disclosures/
What's been said:
Discussions found on the web:Posted Under
Previous Post
October Surprise: No Bottom in Housing
this is really superb!
It is amazing how history is repeating itself all over again. It appears that nothing has changed since 1929: the same level of denial, euphoria, and complacency (‘Wall Street Spirits Soaring’ and ‘Citizens Urged to Put Everything They Have Into Stock Market’); the same ignoring of the reality and dangers of getting deeper into debt (New ‘Easy Credit’ Delays Financial Catastrophes until 1930s); and the same tactics of market cheerleading (‘Buy, Buy, Buy!’ Experts Advise). You can see how everyone was thinking that this time it was different, and America was in “the most prosperous period of our nation’s history”. (Hoover Promises ‘Airplane in Every Garage’ by 1935)
It’s amazing that readers of this blog think the above front page newspaper was real. Wow…no one has heard of the Onion before?
LB-
Jokes on you.
Sure LB. I enjoy Onions with my FOOD!
Is…is THAT what you mean!???!
LB,
Maybe the responders to this social satire (The Onion) intentionally used sarcastic language and the posts were intended to make their victims the butt of contempt.
Lovely
I love the headline on the bottom right –
“Anthropomorphic mouse in short pants calls for increased litigation”.
Anybody like the Rydex Inverse Dynamic Dow, dollar, S & P, etc.? Or is there still too much liquidity sloshing around?
Market declines during recessions are usually 15 – 28% from what I’ve found in my limited research time.
I’ve done a bit of reserch into market declines specifically the 4 year cycle low. When the market peaks mid cycle and then trades down into the low over an extended period the peak to trough tends to be greater but when the market trades right up to the low the decline tends to be sudden and steep lasting 2-3 months. The cycle low is due sometime between now and Apr. so it looks like we are probably in store for the sudden violent type. Even though every pundit in the media is positive there will be no recession we have surely had them in the past and these same people were sure then that we would not have a recession. Since they have been wrong every time except in 94 I would say the odds are they will be wrong again. Warren Buffet said “we simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful” I think I will wait till the panic selling starts before buying.
anybody knows a site where we can find the front pages of past (of long time ago) newspaper editions?
Next page: “Pencils for sale!” Then, a couple pages later, FDR: “The only thing we have to fear is a crippling, decade-long recession.”
Or something like that. Unfortunately my copy of Our Dumb Century is packed away somewhere…
I heard a kid say “My Dad said that there was a recession in 2000 and it wasn’t that bad”.
here is another funny thing that is really close to reality
wall street at work…….. / cartoon
http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/10/wall-street-at-work-cartoon.html
Given the bull pump of this market since June, a 15 % pullback would just return the market to where it was a year ago. It is not unprecedented. The build-up to the 1987 crash appeared to be similiar in structure, day after day of mindless levitation.
Day to day, the fundamentals mean little. The great mystery to me is the money and motivation behind this “market” move. I have heard little credible analysis to explain the buying.
Friends of the republican party ? Market domination and short squeeze by the speculator banks ? Both ? A little light on the “mystery money” ( ala Jeff Saut) would be useful.
The scariest thing is how often the Onion calls it exactly right.
“Bush: ‘Our Long National Nightmare Of Peace And Prosperity Is Finally Over’
January 17, 2001”
http://www.theonion.com/content/node/28784
What would fool the most investors/traders? Perhaps the market won’t stay up until election day and this coming week will see the start of a sharp selloff? Friday’s action did not look good to me but end of the month/beginning of the month strength could rescue this one way rally on Tuesday if I am wrong (which I often am). Anyone looking at the charts here? What is the collective wisdom? Have the shorts all covered?
It is still October after all.
Boo.
“Buy, Buy, Buy! Experts Advise”
Few on Wall Street dare to tell the truth, nobody wants to lose their jobs and/or end-of-the-year bonuses.
“Economists employed by investment banks have an implicit interest in being cheerleaders for economic growth. Growth implies earnings growth and stock market gains, and therefore more money for their firms. Investors won’t be drawn to the stock market if they know a recession is coming.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/D4bTmQF92zgHqGJB5TgVnQW?siteid=mktw&dist=TNMKTW
Caught the ref to Edith and Archie… “gee our old La Salle ran great, those were the DAAYYYSSS!
Bullion: BullnotBull currently has a link to March 6, 1933’s NYT => the day the music died.
I am not a sailor but from what I can see the captain of a sailboat does not ask too many questions about the prevailing winds. He (she) might look for gross evidence of a storm and ask “is it approaching or receding?” Is what I am doing likely to take me to my destination?” “Will I make it there on time?”, Can I handle this weather or should I ride it out until I feel I will be able to work with the environment that is presented to me?” Am I really prepared to go forward with my response?
Perhaps those are the questions we need to ask. I believe on the short term much can be anticipated, but the further out we look the more randomness plays into the sum of all possible events.
A strong and steady wind in the direction we are going is ideal.
I feel like Chance the Gardener from the book or movie “Being There”.
I will have more to say, but hate to post a long bit and then have the Turing test, refuse me.
Alexd
greed and fear overpower knowledge. greed and fear are integral to rational/perfect markets. I am glad that Mr. Ritholtz has the discipline to keep up the enlightened contrarian thinking. It helps me stay sane to know that not everybody is always jumping on each new bubble that forms in various investment classes. Thank you, John Wellman
Invinciple?
I reject bullishness… I reject bearishness… I reject common contrarianism… I reject any form of predefined status of philosophical thought.
I don’t come here for it and I don’t think BR represents it. If he did, I’d be gone. But… to where?…. Unbiased objectivity is a priceless commodity.
I think, Alexd, you are on to something with that last post that you should follow up on.
Chance was a perfect illustration of what I’d like to be in many aspects of objective thought… not just in investing.
Chance was single minded and purposeful about what he wanted, although he innocently lacked objectivity. However, the lack of objectivity of those who interacted with him derived from their biases and erroneous assumptions about who Chance was.
Bushsux,
If you are looking to go short you could put a stop at the recent high. The first down day after a seris of 4 or more up days often marks the change of trend in an intermediate move. Fridays action showed many similarities to the top in May. First down day after a string of up days and a distribution day in the Dow. So I would say Monday morning would give a low risk entry. Any close above Thursday’s high would mean the run probably isn’t over yet. I would be looking for a break of the well defined trend line to confirm that the trend has changed.
The media is quite bearish on housing, and is cautiously pessimistic about the stock market. People are scared witless re: the budget deficit, the trade deficit, the housing market, the fallout from the war in Iraq, North Korea, the midterm elections, etc. Furthermore, despite the recent run-up in the Dow, it is still far from a peak when viewed from an inflation-adjusted and global-currency-denominated perspective.
I would say that it is a good time to stay invested.
What a lovely way to describe MickeyMouse.
Thank you eclectic.
I am afraid that how clear and sharp I am at any moment varies so there is no guarantee I can equal my performance at any given time, but here goes.
I really am not sure that I write for the reader or myself. I suspect that I am writing in an effort to nail down my own responses to my investments and the markets in which these investments flow. Hopefully I will improve.
Since I utilize a hybrid approach where value stocks are screened with a technical approach, I often find myself divided in my thoughts. This is due to my own impatience . But this is the interesting part. For it is always an interesting situation, as I learn to find the correct balance between price variation and time.
Sometimes I notice the market looks just like me.
How do we find out what is true?
Be well