I am en route back from La Jolla, California, so no linkfest this week. However, here’s the generic version — you guys can fill in the numbered links and general topics yourselves in the comments!
Uh-Oh: That was a _____ week
Something from Barron’s Trader column. Snarky observation about some underperforming sector, but noting new record market highs.
Where to begin this week? The Market? The Dollar? Yields? Housing? No matter — we got it all covered:
INVESTING & TRADING
1 • Lead Story of the Week
2 • Bullish article on why the rally can continue
3 • Bearish article on why its almost over
4 • Big Picture post
5 • Something Technical Analysis related
6 • Mark Hulbert/Dan Gross column
7 • Another Big Picture post
8 • Video from Bloomberg/TSCM/WSJ
9 • Academic Research
10 • Something Quirky Market related
The Wall of worry continues to build:
11 • Major Econ release(s)
12 • Big Picture Econ tear apart
13 • Caroline Baum trashes something
14 • Another Big Picture Econ tear apart
15 • Retail is worse than you think
16 • Housing is bad.
17 • No, really bad;
18 • And, Its getting worse.
19 • Something idiotic from the NAR and/or David Lereah
20 • WSJ Real Estate Journal advice on selling your house
21 • Bernanke/Fed Governor jawboning strong growth and weak inflation
22 • Greg Ip/John Berry column
24 • Things are so bullish its bearish
25 • Actually,things aren’t so bullish at all, and the individual investor is not participating.
26 • Something from Doc Steenbarger’s TraderFeed
27 • War in Iraq: Turns out, its not going so well
28 • Energy story about solar/wind/geothermal
29 • Media story on something absurd about the Media
30 • The Administration did something not very bright
31 • Thomas Friedman column
Technology & Science
32 • Google is great
33 • Apple, too
34 • but Microsoft sucks
35 • Tech: Wow!
36 • Science: bigger wow!
37 • Internet: hmmm, that’s interesting
38 • Tech just keeps getting cooler
39 • Science something odd and surprising
40 • This Internet thingie is gonna be big one day
41 • Quirky geek something or other
Music Books Movies TV Fun!
42 • Music something new to listen to
43 • Music older — Jazz, classic R&R
44 • Movie in the theater worth seeing; Also, this DVD was good
45 • Book about economics/market/investing
46 • Guess whats on TV this week?
47 • Humor — pretty funny
48 • Video — man, thats weird
49 • Time awasting web based video game (time suck)
50 • Another YouTube/Google Video
51 • Quirky: Man, THATS weird
52 • Hilarity ensues
That’s all from here, where _______ involving weather/ sports / shopping in the NorthEast, where (something I dont know what) is coming this week.
is this funny, or do I just feel like laughing?
Okay, I’ll handle ‘•21’ this week, since it immediately ties in to my last posting.
and then here:
…and take a quote from the article which itself quotes Fisher regarding the greatly deserved reputation of Milton Friedman:
“Fisher said. ‘We consider him the patron saint of the Dallas Fed.’ ”
Now, go here:
…and take a quote from Fisher regarding Paul Volcker:
“Paul Volcker, who is considered by many to be Zeus in the pantheon of central banking gods, studied at the London School of Economics as a Rotary Foundation Scholar.”
With all due respect to Mr. Friedman (I admired him greatly), I wholeheartedly agree with those two quotes, however, I would suggest that a better worshipfulness would be achieved by substituting the mythological for the religious, and the religious for the mythological.
18. Housing market
Collapse of the mortgage market
Also click on my name, I’ve posted a lot of that stuff recently
You already covered all of Investing and the Fed with two sage words BR.
Well, I’ll offer up my early Saturday column, because 1) I referenced Barry’s GOLD column, 2)it’s technically applicable, and 3) I don’t have ads, so I’m not profiting from it.
5 • Something Technical Analysis related
Chart of the Day Feb 23rd:
Here’s something for time-waster game and irritatingly cute as well: Double Jeu
Of course its French! (Hey! I love the French!)
Description found at WSJ’s Time Waster Column. (sub. req.)
For books, check out James Buchan’s “The Authentic Adam Smith: His Life and Ideas” For those of us too lazy to read Wealth of Nations, quirky Adam Smith, originator of the idea of the “indivisible hand” of the marketplace. But, he also said, “government…is in reality instituted for the defense of the rich against the poor.”
Ha! B.R you have been on fire the last couple of days!
look at the hang seng and india stock market both trading down triple digit. This rally cannot last forever, eventually it will sell off and when it does its not going to be pretty.
copied this post from another blog and agree fully.
To follow up on Lurker’s comment India’s eqivalent index to Dow jones ( BSE 30) is down 600 points in a day that’s roughly 4%.That market certainly has topped.Inflation there is over 6% well beyond the RBI comfort zone and the RBI (Equivalent of FEDERAL RESERVE) is going to raise interest rate.Looks like party is over there as technically it’s a very bearish pattern as it broke down thru all support zones.So when the music will start in Dow jones and S&P? When emerging markets like these start cracking one after another big guy ( US market ) and this time he’s sick himself will start feeling the heat very soon.Inflation is heating up and that means all global finacial markets are on edge.Strap on your belt guys.We are in for a wonderful ride.
Spectre of global liquidity:
Chinese liquidity problem:
Indian liquidity problem:
US economy/ Housing
# 15 seems to be an appropriate spot, but Barry you can move it.
It appears the Starbucks “leaked” memo is actually true, as it is being carried by all major media at the same time. You can read the total memo at http://www.starbucksgossip.com, an interpretation of it on my blog, and then for enjoyment and a few laugh, YouTube, http://www.squidoo.com/StarbucksinDecline, Miss Swan at Starbucks.
for ‘hilarity ensues,’ I nominate Mr. Sulu’s response to Tim Hardaway’s homophobic comments:
Barry to quote Greenberg “If investors learn nothing else from the debacle now known as NovaStar Financial, it should be that no matter how the financial markets have changed, no matter how smart people may think they are, no matter how much it may feel that this time is really different, one basic rule of investing stands: The higher the reward, the higher the risk.”.I nominate this as lead story of the week.
This was the first full week that the new One Dollar Presidential Coins Series was available. You can read all about it at the U.S. Mint website:
United States Coin designs, with some exceptions such as the St. Gaudens Twenty Dollar Gold Piece and the Buffalo Nickel, are nothing to write home about, but I think this new design reaches a new low even by U.S. Mint standards.
As far as the design itself is concerned, “awful” doesn’t go far enough, and “terrible” doesn’t quite capture how I feel. “Absolutely dreadful” is really the best way to sum it up, in my view. Here are just a few of the reasons I already hate this coin:
1. The coin looks like play money or something put out by a third world country. The “$1” notation of the denomination on the reverse is particularly annoying and reminds me of the peso coins put out by Mexico during the ’70’s and ’80’s as it was debasing its coins. And, of course, the whole concept of the “golden dollar” is a product of the constant, pervasive inflation which has characterized our monetary policies since about 1930. I used to call the Sacagawea Dollar the “Clinton Penny” because it is about the size of a large cent, and it is worth about as much as those coins used to be when they circulated. However, at least the Sacagawea design was well done. The design of this coin looks like what it is: a unit of currency which as been deeply debased, and an insult to its predecessor, the silver dollar.
2. The date, mintmark and slogans “In God We Trust” and “E Pluribus Unum” are placed on the edge of the coin (not on the surface near the edge, but actually on the edge). That makes them hard to read. I don’t care about the slogans, but making the date and mintmark hard to read makes the coins hard to collect, which is the whole point of this series from the government’s perspective. It will be interesting to see if through circulation (if these coins in fact circulate, which I doubt) the date and mint mark wear off.
3. No where on this coin does the word “Liberty” or the bald eagle appear. Admittedly, the reverse shows the Statue of Liberty, but an archeologist unearthing these coins 1,000 years from now might not know what that monument is or what this country is supposed to stand for. In my view, these omissions are extremely telling because they show that we Americans have begun to forget the values on which our nation was founded.
This coin is a fitting symbol of what the United States has become: the world’s largest debtor and an imperial power that has lost sight of the ideals on which it was founded and which made it strong in the first place.
My guess is that, notwithstanding the government’s attempt to spin it as a success, this coin series is going to be profoundly unpopular. The dollar coins for, say, Millard Fillmore and Herbert Hoover are going to be extremely valuable collectors’ pieces.
4. George Washington looks like a blockhead.
For 43 • Music older — Jazz, classic R&R
Barry and his blog readers who appreciate live classic rock need to check out concerts.wolfgangsvault.com. Free streaming files of live music! There are some amazing shows on this website and best of all its legal. All of the music has been purchased, so the site is essentially internet radio.
Here are a few ideas. I’ve split them into separate posts so that the typepad spam filter won’t trigger.
#5 & 25 Something Technical Analysis Related / Commercial Trader Positions
“The Dumb Money Gets Dumber” 2-13-07
This article warns about the signal built into Merrill Lynch [MER]. I looked at the chart and found it interesting enough to take a short position late this past week. Note: This may may actually be “dumber money becoming more dumber”, as a trade of mine is involved, which should be utilized as a contrary indicator.
(SMA, 50, 200)
(MER vs. S&P)
#9 (Sort of) Academic Research + Free as in Beer Software. Go Win yourself a Nobel Prize:
After taking econometrics at university, I’ve all but ignored what I learned and let this set of skills rust. Digging around recently I found that there is a free Econometrics application available called “gretl” [Gnu Regression, Econometrics and Time-series Library]. No sexy charts, but hard data crunching.
Marry it up with http://www.gnuplot.info/ and you can have your hard data along with sexy charts.
Windows, Linux, Mac OSX versions available.
This tool set could be used to audit the truth-iness of the correlation your “gut” observes in the chart I just posted above:
#’s 27, 30, 45 all rolled into one. A Book Report.
Gorge Soros: The Age of Fallibility: Consequences of the War on Terror, published in 2006, before the November elections.
I think the link above will work and route a few nickels in the right direction.
Love him or hate him, he has some interesting thoughts. I found myself skimming over the dense sections with philosophical dissertations but found other sections illuminating. He offers up thoughts on History, Trading, Energy, War, Politics, “Far From Equilibrium” conditions, Iran, and so forth. It is interesting to read this now that the 2006 Elections have come and gone. Used copies available on Amazon from $3.04.
#33 The Apple Mac Mini. Buy Now or Wait?
I’ve been drooling over the Mac Mini for a long time now. So long that I’m afraid the the very second I shell out the $600 that Apple will release an updated version with more RAM, a standard DVD burner, and an even faster Intel processor, leaving me with the old version. Any one wish to place odds or make predictions when a newer model will be released to the market? Also, how long did it take you to feel comfortable with the interface, in terms of personal productivity, when you made the switch to Mac?
I’m good for one Caroline Baum column.
Caroline responds to feedback from readers on her Feb. 20 article on inflation.
Spiraling cost in healthcare and its growing contribution to the gdp finally seems to be registering with the BLS. It’s certainly an important political issue, but doesn’t seem to have entered the patois of financial economists. It’s something that interest rate adjustments probably can’t influence, so perhaps they are wise to ignore it.
Barry, your being facetious indicates you had some fun. I’m glad you did.
I’m also in the market for a mac. FWIW, I think that it might be worth waiting at least until Leopard to come out in the spring. It’s only a guess on my part, but I suspect that that is when Apple would change the configuration of their machines. Apple has not announced a ‘firm’ date, but rumor has it being March 24.
Thank you for the Mac Mini feedback. I’ll wait until after March 24th, which is just around the corner.