A very quick-post NFP hit tonight on K&C (opening 5 minutes). It is a review of what to make of the upside surprise in jobs Friday — a good but not great employment report.
Regardless of how you rank that NFP, it most likely takes any Fed cuts off the table for the next 6 months, barring the next really bad econodata.
A few quick points on NFP:
added 180,000 jobs in March — though most of the higher-than-expected total
was due to surprisingly good weather.
The Licsio Report adds::
* These gains were rather narrowly distributed,
however. The old standbys, health care and bars and restaurants, together
contributed more than a quarter of the gains. Nearly a third the total gain
from construction – but most of that from specialty trade contractors, who mostly finish buildings rather than start them.
Retail added 36,000
(and was the source of about two-thirds of the upward revision to February
employment); this is a burst of strength from what had been a lagging
* Professional and business services, the heart of the post-industrial economy, fell 7,000, its first decline since November 2004,
and a sharp contrast with its average gain of 37,000 in the previous six
months. Declines in this sector are rare outside recessions; this is one of
the things that keep us from reading this as a truly strong report.
* Diffusion indexes
confirmed the narrowness of the gains, with the one- and three-month
measures actually falling, an unusual contradiction of the headline payroll
number’s month-to-month expansion.
UPDATE April 9, 2007 5:21pm
There’s a lesson in that kids — never go on TV doped up on allergy medicine.
Not only do I look stoned, but I have no clue what-the-hell I said . . .
Good appearance on LK.
MOS missed their number?
After listening to BR on Kudlow it appears BR loss some of that bear zest? Could be wrong. Frankly just when I feel I have committed to the risks outweighing the rewards of this current market something comes up that makes me think things might be ok afterall then I wake up the next day and change my mind again. Frankly, it feels like we are at an inflection point, I just can’t figure out where the compass is pointing and I don’t think anyone else can either.
Cold Medicine or no – you sounded fine. It was a weird segment though. Not much actual information imparted, seems Larry just wanted to argue but didn’t have much to argue about.
Larry made a convincing argument to go long … on Kool Aid.
Little wonder Barry you coudlnt keep a straight-face in Larry’s “knee-deep crappola” intro.; what gets a bigger
1). Family Guy Re-Runs (“Dig-Digity”)
2). Colbert’s quips
3). Kudlow’s cheerleading and pimping oh i mean pumping; all that blow back in the 80’s botched his brain!
It probably doesn’t make any difference what you say on Kudlow. He (and probably most of his audience) simply wants to hear bullish commentary. CNBC, like all businesses wants to increase its revenue. And a bullish tone will increase their ratings, which in turn will increase their revenue. As for the facts, well, that’s another story.
no matter how “good” the nfp numbers are, job and wage growth based on service industry and temporary construction jobs is’nt something to brag on.what are our goals? create the best house boys and bartenders the world has ever known?the market did’nt exactly set the world on fire today so i guess they were’nt to impressed either.
Barry was fine on the show, despite the standard hammering and banter.
His comment on the birth/death model was not clear, and it is time for a more lengthy analysis on this topic.
Meanwhile, on my site I posted a bad dream where Barry wrote the account of a White Sox victory in the style of his NFP reports. It might be worth a laugh:)
BR, I’m sorry I missed the appearance.
Please tell me what I can take to make it through the special theme on CNBC tomorrow: “Now is a great time to buy a house!”
Are they kidding?
hello from germany,
here are some more excellent insights from paul kasriel / northern trust
“an autopsy on the march jobs report”
the link is pdf!
That opening segment with Larry, Barringo and Dennis was about the best example of a debate where each participant made quality points. I would’ve given all 3 of them an A-plus.
I was laughing so hard at Larry… I thought for a minute he was going to tell Barringo, “So… you got knocked off your asshat on the road to Kudlovia and it spoke to you and said ‘Why are you persecuting me… whyy?… come to me, come h-o-m-e!'” Too funny!
But let’s look closer.
The reason for each of the three having excellent points is because part of the economic dilemma the U.S. is absorbed in has not been fully detected yet. It’s a matter of perspective. Here’s part of the blow-by-blow followed by ***my perspective:
Larry – 180k a blockbuster.
Barringo – Good, but hardly a blockbuster.
Dennis – Good because it doesn’t have to be a blockbuster because of technological productivity (my interpretation of what he said).
***Dennis is right from the perspective of the U.S. consumer until his sources of credit run out. They are beginning to bleed out, but the pace of consumption has not slowed enough (if it ever does) to reach into the service sector jobs that have fueled the retail trade construction build-out that has partially off-set the residential constuction down-turn. I’d remind him that business and professional services jobs showed a decrease in the recent BLS… and that’s not a future indicator of economic health.
Worldwide Economic Expansion:
Larry – Booming, and he says Barringo cherry-picks bad news for TBP.
Barringo – Asia is booming, U.S. is just lagging, job quality not up that of prior expansions. Profits slowing.
Dennis – Be optimistic because things are pretty good now.
***Optimism is a good and useful attribute in and of itself, but our individual opinions and our personal expressions of optimism are only mere commodities when it comes to macroeconomics. In fact, it’s a corollary of the most important rule of economics (self interest) that it is very often in one’s best interest not to do the things others are doing for their own best interests.
I can remember a number of times that Barringo has presented rather optimistic opinions on a number of subjects. And, let me say how I feel in this way: Were you (reader) and I to discuss the price you’re asking for a used auto sitting in front of your house, and if I don’t agree with the price you’re offering it for, it doesn’t mean that I’m not optimistic. However, until our perspectives on the price were to match perfectly, you’d always assume from your own perspective that I am merely pessimistic. I might be the most optimistic person you’ve ever met, yet just not optimistic about agreeing with your price.
The panel presented a mixed bag of opinion.
***Read my theories presented on this blog regarding the failure of monetarism, and understand that all the way back to Smith’s and Hume’s time, they were both explaining that monetary expansion is not the core reason for an economic expansion and that the money supply only reorganizes itself to fit the then-current level of transactional demand. In other words, the Fed can only restrain, but never stimulate, because the money supply simply readjusts in value to effect the transactional demand of the economy it serves.
As you know, I missed Kudlow last night–it rarely happens, but there was a rerun of a particularly good America’s Funniest Home Videos on, and I’m only one man. So I don’t know precisely what was said on the jobs front. But the birth-death model, alluded to in one of the comments above, was responsible for 128,000 of the 180,000 jobs. And I can only view the 56,000 construction jobs as being weather-aided and representing the completion of projects long in the works. As you know, half-finished homes are anathema to the builders. So I’d expect that number to fall off one of Mike Panzner’s cliffs pretty quickly, and certainly would not view it as a leading indicator.
TIVO people. There is no excuse for missing Kudlow. A wise man once said it is the Greatest Story Never Told. Set your TIVO, check Kudlows RSS feed for guests and have your finger on the fast-forward button when Reich/Moore, Leslie Marshall, Art Laffer, et al appear. It shouldn’t take more than 15 minutes to watch most episodes.