The Fed assumption made by many is that its a sure thing that Bernanke and the FOMC are going to give into the whining and pleading and crying and begging and beseeching and howling and weeping (In Yiddish, its called "kvetching") from the anti-free market cry-baby commies currently residing in positions of influence on Wall Street and the media.
Therefore, goes this line of thinking, we should expect rates cuts in September and beyond.
Not so fast, says the WSJ’s Marketbeat. They assembled a short list of 5 reasons as to why a rate cut won’t happen — least not at the September meeting:
Why the Fed Won’t Cut Rates
1. Official on-the-record Fed commentary: St. Louis Fed head William Poole and Richmond Fed head Jeffrey Lacker have loudly argued against it. with Poole saying a “calamity” is required first, and Lacker noting the impact on consumers is “relatively small."
2. Off-the-record whisperings: Fed reporter Greg Ip wrote: while “officials acknowledge conditions are far from calm,” they cited stable stock prices, “a pickup in issuance of jumbo mortgages and other factors as evidence that in recent days conditions have improved, though gradually, instead of worsened.”
That doesn’t sound like a monetary policy committee that’s ready to lower rates.
3. What’s Been Done So Far: Through open market operations, the Fed has maintained a lower funds rate than the 5.25% target for the last couple of weeks. In addition, the Fed reduced the fee on lending from the System Open Market Account
4. Key economic indicators: Official household unemployment rate in July was 4.6%, which was up from the yearly low of 4.5%. Generally, it takes at least a change of 0.2 percentage points in this rate for the Fed to act, notes Ashraf Laidi, head of forex strategy at CMC Markets. Meanwhile, the year-over-year rate of consumer inflation still remains above the Fed’s upper target of 2%.
5. Moral hazard: Comments by Messrs. Poole and Lacker and the Fed suggest they are reluctant to be seen as bailing out hedge funds and other Wall Street players who became too intimate with leverage.
Go read the entire thing.
(Coming later this week: 5 reasons why they will cut rates).
>
Source:
Five Reasons: Why the Fed Won’t Cut Rates
David Gaffen
Marketbeat, August 22, 2007, 12:02 pm
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2007/08/22/five-reasons-why-the-fed-wont-cut-rates/
Any one of these headlines would send a “normal” market running for the exits:
http://www.bloomberg.com/
When you can hand over the title of someone else’s boat as collateral to the fed. for cash…none of those reasons for or against matters one damn bit.
Ciao
MS
You mean they would risk another tantrum from Cramer?
You mean they would risk another tantrum from Cramer?
That would be a moral hazard, esp. for impressionable young children.
Barry you see the other blog on there under real time economics where they grouped types of views on the fed into 4 categories. One of the comments calls you out specifically into your own 5th category. What say you?
MS,
when you said
“When you can hand over the title of someone else’s boat as collateral to the fed. for cash…”
I have this burning image of the Skipper and Gilligan handing over the SS Minnow to the FED.(LOL)
As for the Bloomberg headlines…OUCH!!!!!
Here No Evil, See No Evil, Speak No Evil.
An odd question would be(In The New Economy)
Is “Foreclosure”
the new code word for “Merger” and/or
“Takeover”????
If they cut, run for the exits IMO!
#5 doesn’t fly. Since when does the Fed care about moral hazards?
Perhpas they cut, perhaps they won’t. Doesn’t really matter. Below from another blog. Sure as hell hope this is incorrect otherwise it’s going to get “fugly”. Not cutting,….. not likely.
“Coventree noted they were not able to place any of the $268 million in A paper that matured on Aug. 16.
The problem goes far beyond small players like Coventree. About $550 billion in short-term ABCP is rolling over in the next couple of weeks, and the bond traders say there is no bid for any of it.”
One commentator today spoke of a 70’s style correction and I thought:
Just think how much richer we’ll feel if we can buy stocks for only half what they cost today!
It sure looks like it is being priced into the market…..
But I can’t imagine it happening that soon. The broader economy does not support a cut.
sorry for repeating myself again and again.
but this is my take home message:
nobody in the world wants USA economy to tank, if necessary they will lend upto 2 trillion dollars (Europeans, chinese, brazil, india etc..) for this party to go on.
so why do we still whine when that happens….yes its not a fair game….the bulls have it on a platter….but the bears will have to claw it using real unbearable market/economic conditions…but thats how it is.
i would never bet my money on the short side….knowing how everyone wants the bulls to win at any cost…
The big question one has to ask is why are the main banks hoarding all the dough. I would like to know what chain reactions are set in motion. Whomever sent T-bills prices to the moon knows what they are or thinks they do. The fed is going to cut, but will it matter. Doubt it.
A cut will not restore confidence in toxic “assets”, which is the manifestation of the crisis today.
However, when it is clear to even the Fed that the loss of the housing related input for the economy is a calamity, it will be cut.
The only question is if it will be this week or by the end of the year.
It seems to me that while an inter-meeting cut is unlikely, a cut is coming soon nonetheless. There are too many powers that be calling for one and it’s mostly symbolic if the effective rate has been manipulated below the official target lately anyway.
One important variable is what other central banks are doing? If they all cut, then they maintain their rate differentials and currency values might remain relatively stable altho I would expect the commodity based ones like CDN and AUD to gain over time. In other words they can collude to do whatever they want with rates without much immediate negative impact.
==whipsaw==
Why the Fed Will Cut Rates
“1. Official on-the-record Fed commentary: St. Louis Fed head William Poole and Richmond Fed head Jeffrey Lacker have loudly argued against it.”
Jeffrey Lacker is not a voting Fed member this year and nobody cares about his opinion. William Poole was not invited to the discount rates cut meeting because of his “calamity” comments; suggesting Bernanke and other Fed member wanted to distance themselves from the Poole and his “calamity” comments
“2. Off-the-record whisperings…”
Simply because the conditions have improved somewhat does not mean the problems have been solved. The Fed needs to cut rates to make sure the improvements are permanent
“3. What’s Been Done So Far: Through open market operations, the Fed has maintained a lower funds rate than the 5.25% target for the last couple of weeks.”
It shows that the Fed realizes that the lower rates are needed – supporting the Fed is preparing for a cut.
“4. Key economic indicators: Official household unemployment rate in July was 4.6%, which was up from the yearly low of 4.5%.”
This is the past. Today mortgage job cuts surpass 38,000 and there will be more job cuts in the near future
“5. Moral hazard: Comments by Messrs. Poole and Lacker and the Fed suggest they are reluctant to be seen as bailing out hedge funds”
Oh please, what hedge funds?
It has nothing to do with the hedge funds.
It is about bailing out the economy. (What the bears are now saying that the economy is strong and does not need any stimulation by the Fed?)
!!! Bonus (via Bloomberg TV):
Even though Greenspan has denied it today; nevertheless, a number of people who were present at Deutsche Bank dinner last night confirm that Greenspan said that he would already cut rates if he were Bernanke.
Hear! Hear!
Though perhaps the more important one that has gone missed:
If economic activity elsewhere in the world has increased the global marginal product of capital, then both the slower growth here and the higher global interest rates are entirely rational.
Specifically, with improving global economies, more capital is flowing to other parts of the world. Slowing capital imports slow productivity and wage growth and settles the US economy into a lower growth rate.
Nothing in that statement implies that the interest rate is wrong or that there is something fundamentally illogical about the slowdown. But people who don’t understand that capital markets reflect the global productivity of *real physical capital* are going to assume that a slowdown implies the need to cut rates.
Inflation is the key indicator because it tells us when slowdows are rational (inflation remains at the high end of comfort zones) or irrational (inflation falls to the low end or below the range).
So long as we’re at the high end of the comfort zone, a cut will only generate inflation (and bigger problems in the next cycle). Any policy that doesn’t recognize this fundamental truth is just “special interests” advocating their own best interests.
1. Official on-the-record Fed commentary
It’s not a problem.
It’s contained to subprimes.
It’s contained.
Surely you jest, yes?
I do not jest. And don’t call me Shirley.
And the number one reason the Fed will not cut rates:
French maid costumes with crotchless panties don’t come in Ben’s size.
Back after a long absence. What did I miss?
My take: Bernanke is an academic wonk. Academics with backbone trust their models. There are no “gut” decisions. Bernanke acted last week in the face of a credit market seizure — not because equity markets dropped.
It appears that the credit markets are moving again — in this case, models projecting risks of inflation continue to be top priority for an academic.
I expect the Fed to hold rates steady at the next meeting and indicate a neutral bias not by dropping the worry over inflation, but by raising the worry over smoothly functioning credit markets.
In effect, the Fed will equity markets to go do what they please — he is not cutting rates unless another seizure in credit occurs or his models for future inflation show drops.
I have a question about all this rate cut business. If cutting rates will 1)lift the stock market, 2)rescue the hapless fools that bought way too much house and cant pay, 3)make worthless CDO’s and other paper golden again, you get the idea. If all that is true, why not just cut rates to 0% and have a super stoked economy on steroids? No points for the old “inflation would rage uncontrolled” line, we have seen that asset gains can offset inflation in the things that dont go up in price that the FED tracks. have at it!
It’s so sad looking at that unemployment rate figure and then looking at the state I live in (Michigan) :(
is anyone watching the financials and XLF since the close of trading today? they’re screaming
From MRAP Delay to Alan Watts
‘What the clever people in this administration seem to miss is that there is no one in Iraq who will do any better at stabilizing the country than Maliki.’ Patrick Lang Out and About on the Net ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Five Reasons
BAC injecting $2 B into CFC, takes back 7.5% preferred convertible at $18/sh. yowza
Damn. Shorts appear to be set up for another massacre at the open. I put some on today so I’m not taunting. I don’t really buy the anti free market if the fed cuts rates arguement though. They raise rates when things get too hot, they lower when there’s trouble. You can argue not having a central bank engaging in monetary policy but that’s not where we’re at. On another note, BAC buying convertible pfd doesn’t resolve this debt cap mkt issue by itself imho.
Barry, when will you do the 5 Reasons It Doesn’t Matter?
Sorry for repeating myself again and again.
but this is my take home message:
nobody in the world wants USA economy to tank, if necessary they will lend upto 2 trillion dollars (Europeans, chinese, brazil, india etc..) for this party to go on.
so why do we still whine when that happens….yes its not a fair game….the bulls have it on a platter….but the bears will have to claw it using real unbearable market/economic conditions…but thats how it is.
i would never bet my money on the short side….knowing how everyone wants the bulls to win at any cost…
Posted by: techy2468 | Aug 22, 2007 4:35:25 PM
Timing is everything. You can be right but early and get killed. Understand that everything and I mean everything must revert back to the mean. Regardless of market sentiment, at some point it must roll over. The market will dictate to us and not the other way around regarding when it will happen, but happen it must. We each have our own ways of measuring for this change. It’s what makes it interesting, but none the less a rigged game. The only thing that ever brings these people down is outright gluttony. The term, “pigs get fat, and hogs get slaughtered” is a perfect metaphor for what we have wintessed.
sasso said:
“Damn. Shorts appear to be set up for another massacre at the open.”
Very possible just looking at futures and the Asian markets that have opened. A lot can happen between now and then, but I think that running short is just too stressful and doesn’t carry a very good risk/reward in this environment.
I am not sure what the story is with BAC and CFC, that’s a lot of dough to put into the preferred of a broken company. So I assume that either BAC is either already upside down on previous loans to CFC (I have not bothered to check) or smells blood in the water and thinks that is the best position to be in altho I am not at all sure that I understand how that could be.
The one thing that I am sure about is that the Big Boys are playing for keeps and will twist all of this to their advantage if humanly possible. It will not pay to cross them regardless of how strongly you believe that markets should go down or how right you may be.
==whipsaw==
Rate cut = more socialism for the rich.
Total Public Debt Outstanding:
08/21/2007 8,976,291,703,795.34
The legal celing is $8.965 TRILLION, so we are technically in default, but hey who really cares at this point. Trying to keep this flying pig going is more than enough to say grace over.
One reasons why the Fed won’t cut rates.
I think “Oceania’s recent decisive victory over Eurasia” was premature. The predominant policy of the Fed is their concern that inflation Will Not moderate.
However, as George Orwell said “Sanity is not statistical” so the Fed can change statistics or sanity.
This is true; today, Eurasia ( Russia & China) has called for a revolution in world economic dollar, with a new competitive basis of people (China) and resources (Russia) against Oceania. (I kid you not)
Therefore, Bernanke can not lower rates or Oceania will lose to Eurasia.
If the Fed means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they must hear.
“If it be now, ’tis not to come. If it be
not to come, it will be now. If it be not now, yet it will come” Hamilet
Translation, everything will work out as it is destined. If something is supposed to happen now, it will. If it’s supposed to happen later, it won’t happen now.
big boys… blindsided (like me today) and on the run. cfc may have been better off paying 12.5 on cp than this. wondering why Warren B would want it this way? thought he’d want the entire asset at lower levels. maybe this is bac in isolation. exposure is a good qestion though. swaps are a major unknown, potentially ticking time bomb out there. I know many people have had no problem transacting with the cfc securities side recently in more liquid mortgage products, but the bilateral nature of swaps and the counterparty risk that comes with it may have bac scared. should have everyone scared by that measure given the chain reaction that could result.
BoA just put up $2billion to bail out countrywide
….
BAC, my ass.
As I recall, Morgan, CIti and others just pulled 500 million times 4 and more from the fed discount window
This is likely a Fed bailout of Countrywide, which has had people doing a sort of run on them
THE CAT IS OUT OF THE BAG, AND NONE OF THE ABOVE CAN PUT THE CAT BACK IN THE BAG.
Read on to see why:
I spoke to a qualified legal authority who read the categories of a top rated commercial paper instrument to me. It is made up of 9 percent mortgage backed and 91% over the counter derivative credit and default specific performance DERIVATIVES. I would say if that was not rolled over and went into liquidation, it would result in 6% good assets and the other 94% would be totally without value.
This is the problem. The system is loaded with trillions and trillions of dollars of ROTTEN paper, better known as over the counter credit and default derivatives.
Right now the tool of choice is financial public relations, some liquidity and leaking of a further reduction in the discount rate with the Fed window open for business. That is the stuff that rallies the stock market with a great deal of help from its friends.
The mistake is that this is not an equity market problem. Bulling equities will not make a credit problem of this sort go away. While time is being wasted trying to PR the problem to death people are for the first time taking a look at what stands behind commercial paper.
I would prefer the problem to just go away but it will not. Even if they manage to sneak through this one, the rot is still there and now too many people know it.
As Justin said yesterday so well, the dollar market will tell you how these derivative problems are rolling out. If the dollar goes to a new low, which it will, then it says the Fed playing the market perception hand lost this one. If we lose the battle to keep credit and default derivative in the dark, hidden and not understood, then the problems will require so much liquidity that the world will drown in it.
I had the backing of a commercial paper instrument in terms of categories read to me today. What I had long believed is absolutely true. Our financial system has by default been set on a stage of unfunded special performance contracts upon which the financial viability depends on the balance sheet of the LOSER in the arrangement.
Just a reminder:
The REAL problem is not sub prime loans. That is a cover word for the first melt down in credit and default derivatives as withdrawals from hedge funds demand liquidation of instruments that cannot be liquidated. Commercial paper holders have become inquisitive why they got a 9% return when the best return of the same time term was 5% lower. Looking into the backings of the Commercial Credits even of the highest possible credit rating revealed financial weapons of mass destruction credit and default derivatives to be the slam dunk majority.
Because of this the commercial paper market went into a catatonic state.
Over the counter derivatives now totaling more than USD$20 trillion floating in the category of only credit and default around the globe are:
Without regulation.
Without listing on public exchanges.
Without standards.
Therefore not in the least but transparent.
Therefore without an open market of the bid/ask type.
Dealt in by private treaty negotiations.
Without a clearinghouse.
Unfunded without financial guarantee of any kind.
Functioning as contracts of specific performance.
Financial character or ability to perform is totally dependent on the balance sheet of the loser in the arrangement.
Evaluated by computer assumptions made by geek, non market experienced mathematicians who assume religiously that all markets return to their normal relationships regardless of disruptions.
Now in the credit and default category alone considered by accepted authorities as totaling more than USD$20 trillion in notional value.
Notional value becomes real value when the agreement is forced to find a real market for ending the obligation which is how one says sell it.
I think I will stop at 13 as it only gets worse from here.
Jim Sinclair
citi et all.. I’m not sure how the proceeds would be divided amongst banks if it wasn’t bofa alone on this. they didn’t buy common though…
Whoa whoa whoa Jim. What is the cp program you refer to? I agree on the basic premis that we have serious problems but what cp buyer out there was getting 9% and had no clue what they were buying? What cp program offered anywhere near 9%? If this was some kind of “money market” fund that was pushed on retail that would be one thing, but cp is another story all together. Who’s going to offer cp at 9%? If somone did, it’s a very very small portion of the market. There’s still troubles, but what you describe is an outlier. What’s the issue? I’d like to have a look. Thanks
Total Public Debt Outstanding:
08/21/2007 8,976,291,703,795.34
yet, the legal celing is $8.965 TRILLION.
How is one able to exceed?
I just read Jim’s comments and I don’t think it stated the cp was yielding 9%, rather 9% was referenced the portion backed by mortgages.
I posted an earlier comment on Coventree not moving a single dollar of $260+ Million in paper that matured Aug 16th. I could now certainly see why.
When Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, got a slap on the back, he thought he would get even, by lowering interest rates to far, thus today’s problems.
I kid you not, Bernanke can not lower rates because Russia and China are nipping at our heels.
“Cry “Havoc!” and let slip the dogs of war, (economic dollar)
That this foul deed shall smell above the earth
With carrion men, groaning for burial.” Shakespeare
If the Fed means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they must hear! This is real, it’s our time to stand.
Jim Sinclair seems to be going overboard lately with his comments. He took the Lehman Brothers news and added unnecessary confusion.
Lehman Brothers closed down their subprime mortgage division today. This was the subprime lending group of direct lenders in middle america.
“Lehman Brother is one of the 5 dealers of the total 14 in credit and default derivatives that count. The question now is what did the subprime mortgage division of Lehman do. The answer, is in all probability, they negotiated credit and default derivatives. Subprime mortgages have been a cover word for credit and default derivatives. Wouldn’t it be nice to get some news without spin?”
I keep thinking techy is right. So, despite all the risks, I’m still “bullish” on nominal increases in stock prices. (And if I can manage to obtain any “real” increases, all the better.)
No one wants this charade to end.
Stuart. Not sure how you infer that. Read again. the spread he mentions (5%, but that’s a little wide) is another tip off.
Coventree – I know the situation fairly well. I guess it’s old new though per se and was previously priced in (1 handle 1 mo bills). The question is whether it is contained, quarantined, whatever at some point.
The New Century is now here … created by the Greatest Generation and for their benefit, isn’t that how it works? … what’s their kids plan? Milk whats left and turn over empty balances to XYZ.
Uugg.
Stock up. Rice, water, TP, duct tape and plastic sheeting. Maybe a sword.
Still … be thinking of a FDR like master plan.
yen in a stand off just under 116 as i type on an 8-1 unch vote. could that 1 put another bid on it? we’ll see…
If we have to return to interest rates at decade low levels just to keep the national economy from crashing, what does that reveal about the true state of the economy ?
.
From techy2468:
“i would never bet my money on the short side….knowing how everyone wants the bulls to win at any cost…”
I disagree: Lots of people want the bulls to win…provided that Professor Pain, the Teacher Extraordinaire, does not abuse his proverbial whip. Because when He does, watch out below!
It is useful to remember where does the actual pain come from; quite simply, there is no bid for a lot of assets, since investors do not know what’s their freaking value. Such a lack of transparency is just what a “free” market does NOT need.
BY “free” I mean markets that are free of the worries that comes with a regulatory system (read FED, SEC, and my favorite whipping pet, Congress*) that is deficient and just refuse to do its job of providing a minimally decent level-playing field to a majority of participants.
Francois
*Mark Twain was so right:
1) “No citizen’s assets are safe while Congress is in session”
2) “Suppose you were an idiot. Suppose then, you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself”
Here’s evidence the Fed is fostering moral hazard. Exceprt from August 23 WSJ article “Banks step up to Fed’s window” by Robin Sidel et al.:
“One factor that provided a powerful incentive for the banks to tap the window: The Fed granted them a narrowly crafted exemption from a cumbersome rule that constrained the banks’ ability to use discount-window borrowings to finance certain securities purchases by their investment-banking units, said people familiar with the situation.”
With this action the Fed shows itself as a willing particpant in sanctioning reckless moral hazard. The Fed is a disgrace. Congress needs to investigate the Fed.
All the banks have to do is pullback on lending again and it will give the FEDs a logical reason to cut rates. This is all great drama playing out for your viewing pleasure. In other words, it’s contrived.
speaking simplistically…..what if i say that professor pain can be kept at bay if you use $2 trillion. and inflate everything.
which is what they are trying to do, they dont care about inflation…..they need this party to go on very very badly….
so we will see….right now my investment strategy is 35% in the market and 65% in cash. so i dont care much which way we go.
Sasso, I see what you referring too now. Missed it at the bottom. Right, 9% is quite the cp. thanks.
The Fed will cut simply because that is what the bond market has been screaming for (link).
Unlike the myth they like to project, the Fed follows the bond market rather than dictate to it.
I think you need to blog and title an article “Why the fed better not cut rates”.
Total Public Debt Outstanding:
08/21/2007 8,976,291,703,795.34
yet, the legal celing is $8.965 TRILLION.
How is one able to exceed?
Posted by: Stuart | Aug 22, 2007 10:06:37 PM
That is one fine question. Someone might want to ask/sak the Treasury Sec. who said we wouldn’t need to raise the ceiling until Oct.. It’s so much easier to just ignore it, and have no one comment on it.
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ETNX&t=3m
…Barringo, if you’ll take a look on your trusty Dick Tracy two-way radio wrist watch (or, knowing you… some equivalent form of Apple love toy), the little hand says August and the big hand says 23.
And, yes, shopper Barringo… your task… should you elect to take it on, is to drag Mrs. Big Pic, fightin’ and screamin’ all the way… to the nearest Tarzchey and look for a chicken cluckin’ suit that fits.
…Fits you BTW, not her… haha.
I recken ukin g’head and buy it, since I don’t recken you’ll be a’needin’ a re-fund before Festivus-For-The-Restofus:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eaeQz5HwfoI