Great set of charts via the fabulous WSJ graphics department:
Delinquency Rate
Its interactive, so when you mouse over a specific town, the details pop up
Click through for the change in Delinquency Rates and change in Relative Median Home Price
After the Mortgage Boom
September 20, 2007 12:35pm by Barry Ritholtz
This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment. The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client. References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. The Compound Media, Inc., an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here: https://www.ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers Please see disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/blog-disclosures/
What's been said:
Discussions found on the web:Posted Under
Previous Post
Fears of dollar collapse ?Next Post
Ways to achieve a painful, early death
Riverside County needs to be paved over and start again as all the speculative money from LA went there and are now stuck in houses that are not worth half of what they were bought for.
Sacramento and surrounding counties are a close second.
But “it’s contained”
Ciao
MS
“Riverside County needs to be paved over and start again as all the speculative money from LA went there and are now stuck in houses that are not worth half of what they were bought for.”
Wow MS; it looks like you and Cramer actually agree on something!
I guess but for very different reasons though……..
I was almost part of that county (and problem)and I’m glad I had reservations about buying in late ’05…….best decision I ever made.
Ciao
MS
MS,
yes that was. I was a mortgage loan officer in Los Angeles, up to Oct 2005. I saw what was happening, sold my 4450′ ft home in 1 day with 4 offers all over asking price. Moved to Colorado bought a bigger home for 1/2 the price. Figured I would still take a hit here, but it wont be nearly as bad. I know of few people that bought around that time, I tried to warn them all(including some of my wife’s family), they didnt want to listen. They still dont understand the trouble isnt over yet.
Looks like Idaho is hot potatoes w/median prices rising from 120 to 149.99%. Is thar gold in them thar hills, or something?
My mom is trying, and I emphasize trying, to sell her home in Commack, LI. her property type was selling for 625K or so 1-2 years ago. We started at 650K and are now down to 569K and STILL no traffic!
Every time we lower price, 5 more houses come on aggressively priced! Just NO buyers! Absolutely brutal market that fed move has no impact at all on.
I wonder how many local markets are like this out there! Is been almost 6 months now and broker has never seen the market this bad in 35 years of doing business. She is a manager of local CBHK office and the most active broker in the entire neighborhood. We thought that would help our cause, but apparently nothing else but price matters now.
Well that’s one great graphic that they will need to do an update to in 6 months. Going to be alot more brown on it……no am not going further with that…
I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard on radio and TV since Tuesday that all consumers need to do is ” open up your mortgage bill and credit card bill to see that the fed has lowered YOUR rate by 1/2 a point”
It’s so dishonest………however that is the perception they want. That they are helping you keep your house….
Oh and Goldman’s earnings?? come on…you sold a power company and were that much smarter than every other broker???
I bet…..
Ciao
MS
MS,
The saddest irony is all those poor homeowners stuck in ARM’s looking to refinance into a lower rate fixed mortgage who cheered “Ben Dover’s” big 50 bps cut.
Well, now the other shoe has dropped; the yields on the 10 and 30 year bonds are soaring!
As Bankrate.com is showing, mortgage rates have actually increased since the fed cut.
(and they’re likely to head higher from here)
yes I see the irony of it as well…my wife is a loan broker and we both shook our heads when it happened. What’s missing is that the move in the bond is without any china pressure…..wait …
How many trips is Paulsen going to have to take in the next six months?? I bet he’s going to be very busy.
But the bulls crow on about the global economy…….growth in europe is all but dead based on euro. Don’t even start with the pound and we should have parity with the loonie about now.
What a great economy…….not
Ciao
MS
Last night on Kudlow and Company, according to Jim LaCamp, the bankruptcy laws must be change to allow the refinancing of the “underwater mortgages” to stop the bloodletting on the homeowner.
BTW, BR, really enjoy your spots on Kudlow..and would appreciate your wisdom on adjusting the bankruptcy laws to stop the massive foreclosures that are coming down the pike.
change the b’ruptcy laws??-Yes they were changed alright….not in favor of anyone who is currently facing a foreclosure though.
Two things happened about the same time last year:
1. Change in law making it MUCH harder to file for B’ruptcy (thanks GWB!)but I understand why it was done as it was too much of an easy out for people who were irresponsible in the first place at many levels above a potential foreclosed home
2. The FASB “creates” a new level for accounting standards…level 3 which makes it far easier to place a make believe value on the books (think CDO, SIV, etc.) as opposed to a real value.
BSC, GS, ML, MS, LEH all lobbied VERY hard for this to occur.
Minyanville has a quick look at earnings from GS and LEH….
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/LEH-MS-BSC-GS-bank+earnings/index/a/14179
Coincidence that both of those changes have a very real affect on what is currently happening now?
Not a chance..
Ciao
MS
The bankrupcy laws do need changed, otherwise, all 2million forclosed buyers will not be back in the market for another 8 year or so.
All that supply of homes (new and used) without any domestic demand for the next decade.
I thought residential mortgage loans were generally non-recourse in most states. Is this incorrect?
Wow Josh. Astute observation. Looks like they unwittingly did bite the hand that feeds.
Poll Shark — You aren’t kidding. Long bond futures were recently down a whopping 1 24/32 in price. That came on the heels of a 1 point decline yesterday. Today’s rout is equal to 1.57% — the worst daily drop (on a percentage basis) that I can find going all the way back to September 22, 2003. If you’ll recall, we were just coming out of the deflation scare summer at the time. In other words, the long-term fixed rate mortgages that were supposed to be the solution to all those people stuck with crappy ARMs are getting more expensive. I suppose anything can happen, but the market is definitely giving Ben’s helicopter drop a big thumbs down.
This just says it all:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aIu0j8.UJCS0&refer=home
“We’re fine……sorry about you”
Ciao
MS
“Riverside County needs to be paved over and start again as all the speculative money from LA went there and are now stuck in houses that are not worth half of what they were bought for.”
That’s why CAT has been so good over the years. We’re going to need lots of bullddozers.
If we had a clue, we would start worrying about watersheds instead of housing developments.
Forget paving things and start protecting watershed areas, or California (among other places) is going to run out of water.
We may have bigger issues to worry about soon than the housing crisis.
off topic:
did anyone analyze goldman’s earnings….seems like they made a ton in short trading…..isnt it nice to be in power and in the know and use it to beat other institution..
http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/20/magazines/fortune/eavis_goldman.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007092017
“Riverside County needs to be paved over”
If you’re referring to that big brown chunk in CA, it’s mostly San Bernardino county. Riverside is the smaller one just beneath it.