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Last year, I asked readers if they were interested in a free six week subscription to the Economist (there’s some filthy lucre in it for moi).
The overwhelming response — 76 comments! — was to please do it!
Here’s your link for the free trial.
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Last year, I asked readers if they were interested in a free six week subscription to the Economist (there’s some filthy lucre in it for moi).
The overwhelming response — 76 comments! — was to please do it!
Here’s your link for the free trial.
Some thoughts
1) Anybody think it is possible the government called around to large Dow companies over the weekend to see who could give them a positive pre-announcement and IBM said yes?
2) CNBC was so desperate to put a positive spin on Citi today…seems like they are in cohoots with the PR dept at Citi even more than I aever thought. They put out rumors of a $24 B writedown, knowing it would be lower so that CNBC could say “C indicated up as writedown less than expected”
3) If this chart is right, how can a Depression be avoided? Someone please discuss. If RE just reverts back to its all-time HIGHS, it must drop 40%. It could drop 60%.
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.large.gif
It appears to me C was insolvent (bankrupt) in Dec. As the press statement says they are now (because of last infusion) in the correct range of the gov’t requirement but in Dec the way I see it they feel below the requirement.
try this link and click on A History of Home Values at the top
http://piggington.com/a_history_of_home_values_graph_by_robert_j_schiller
Regarding the Economist subscription – Haven’t they kind of made the offer moot (unless you want the dead tree version)? Last year, much of the Economist content was subscription only. They have since (wisely) made all content “free”.
I actually think someone (brokerage?) should buy them up, keep the stories free and really build out their in-depth custom stuff like the country briefs etc. and possibly charge for that. (Not that I don’t love them being free!)
DRYS down another 10%…Is anyone alive out there?
Totally agree with Steve as this is the way that the powers that be try to move us from denial to acceptance (that it’s over…not that it’s real).
Don’t know if it was a proactive thing with IBM since they are all interested in “up” so it’s not like you have to have a meeting about that.
I’ve never seen (in the past year) such a concentrated attempt to move a market upwards with the help of the MSM and the FED that are outwardly coordinating efforts to achieve “up”….
Too bad it still hasn’t worked out the ay they wanted.
You can bet that the August lows will be defended should we be allowed to test them again. Watch the SPY chart (that’s for you “dick”)
Ciao
MS
WE already have an overused word for 2008….
Oversold…
How many times have we heard that already?….
Get used to it.
Ciao
MS
Barry – signed up for the Economist trial for home delivery. Will cancel my work delivery (direct bill to company) and submit an expense report to compensate. My way to say thanks (at no expense to myself!)
Short VLCCF and DRYS. Loving today, but I might close the position and take profits. Pigs get slaughtered, especially pigs that are short cyclically exposed businesses when the Fed is moving to a negative real rate…
Muchas Gracias
The Economist is garbage.
Agreed, the Economist blames the US for everything, war, pollution, civil unrest, hunger, poverty, etc, etc,
The Economist has a Euro slant to global events and situations. Agree or disagree, I think it’s worth hearing the other side of things from time to time. Their a damn sight better than some of the daily UK rags which are outright propaganda.
I have to say I enjoy reading The Economist.
But then I’m not in the USA.
Most of the content is free online – which is a good thing because by the time the hard copy arrives its a few months old.
Paper subscriptions only work for magazines that do not have time sensitive information. National Geographic for example. Well worth the wait for that one.
Sorry Barry,
I didn’t mean to imply in any way that your efforts in arranging the subscription were not appreciated. They are.
The big problem with Schiller’s graph is that it is not quality adjusted. Homes today are far larger that the little crackerjack boxes they built in the 1950s and 1960s. So a price per square foot would be a better gauge.
The second issue with Schiller’s graph is it does not take into account that houses are financed (now more than ever). Affordability is based on a monthly payment. With rates for the past years being near historic lows affordability isn’t nearly as bad as looking solely at the inflated prices. If you were to do a chart of affordability based on monthly payment it would have peaked back in the 1980s when a 30 year fixed went for 15%.
The inflation aspect also helps to make the graph more dramatic. In past history real home price declines were attributable primarily to double digit inflation vice nominal price declines. Modest nominal declines like we saw last year (5%) are 9% real declines.
If you add up all of these mitigating factors we could see 10-20% nominal price declines from peak correct real prices 30-40% over 5 years or so. This would be painful but I don’t think it will be catastrophic like the great depression. I don’t recommend stockpiling ammunition and canned goods. I’m not even buying GLD.
Oh one other thing notice the New York Times version of the graph doesn’t start at zero to exaggerate the bubble.