Today’s media fun is CNBC’s Closing Bell at 3pm.
Maria Bartiromo and Dylan Ratigan will be interviewing me about the economy, some stock selections, and the market’s near term prospects today at 3pm.
Between the credit crunch, $99.50 oil, and the strength in Technology names, we should have plenty to talk about . . .
~~~
UPDATE February 19, 2008 4:10pm
So weird to be on the floor of the exchange — alone! No one is there — its nothing like the old days when the floor was a hive of activity . . .
Update:
Make that $100.00 oil Barry…
Throw them some raw meat.
“This is so 1974 and I’m wearing the same sweater to prove it.”
Ross,
IIRC, by 1974 or so it wasn’t just a matter of the price of energy, but of the supply of energy at any price. We aren’t quite there yet. It could get much worse.
I think we’ll be at an energy shortage sooner that you think, and it will be more complex than a Middle East boycott. Cheap oil is just gone.
if you can avoid Marias sorority giggling you might accomplish something.
Street Creds,
Depends what you mean by cheap. There’s lots of reserves in unconventional (tar sands, coal to liquids, etc.), and a lot of that is very economic if conventional stays in the $100 range. Alberta tar sands alone rivals Saudi oil reserves.
That said, these sources take time to develop, and a shortage of conventional could easily develop.
I hope Barry didn’t get any grease from Dylans’ hair on himself.
Sony Blue-Ray? Toshiba HDDVD? I don’t know.
But this blurb from a Kodak fact sheet has me reeling. Google the title and it hits for me top spot.
The Afterlife Is Expensive for Digital Movies
From The New York Times on the Web
The New York Times Company
December 23, 2007 Scene Stealer
By MICHAEL CIEPLY LOS ANGELES
To begin with, the hardware and storage media – magnetic tapes, disks, whatever – on which a film is encoded are much less enduring than good old film. If not operated occasionally, a hard drive will freeze up in as little as two years. Similarly, DVDs tend to degrade: according to the report, only half of a collection of disks can be expected to last for 15 years, not a reassuring prospect to those who think about centuries. Digital audiotape, it was discovered, tends to hit a brick wall when it degrades. While conventional tape becomes scratchy, the digital variety becomes unreadable.
Estragon,
Remember when the Alyeska pipeline broke down? The joke at the time was that it was the worlds longest candle.
But yes you’re right. There was plenty of oil back then. My 69 Impala only got 16 mpg. Price is the master decipliner. (is that even a word?)
The Alberta tar sands aren’t cheap due to pollution, gas usage, and practically unquenchable water needs. Now, throw in new Canadian taxes, along with the need to custom retrofit each refinery since its not really crude oil anymore, and you can kiss $100 oil goodbye. Besides, they are producing 1 mil bpd, with a top of 4 mil bpd.
Street Creds,
I don’t know where you get your sources, but the tar/bitumen sands are viable at $40/bl and up. The main obstacle is a shortage of labor and materials. Steam-assisted gravity drainage recycles almost all water (95%), the return-on-energy-invested is 6:1, which is very good, and is expected to rise to 9:1 in the near future. Canadian tax laws actually encourage the sands exploration, except the incentives ended in 2007, which is not necessarary at this point at oil $90/bl. Canada and Venezuela tar sand reserves are roughly equal to the total conventional crude reserves, there are also large deposits in the USA.
Street Creds,
You’re entirely correct that oil sands (for example) aren’t cheap to develop. At $100, they’re economic though, and that’s just one non-conventional source.
What’s missing is confidence we won’t see really cheap (as in sub$50) again. If the US and/or Europe and/or Japan were to commit to long term pricing around current levels on the basis that conventional sources are now too risky to rely on, you’d see non-conventional supply get developed fairly quickly. Maybe if we do see an actual supply shortage, that’s what will happen.
Max,
Is the $40 CAD or USD? One of the problems with Alta tar sands is costs are largely CAD, but revenue stream is USD.
I vaguely recall a breakeven of around $40 a few years ago, but with the strength in CAD, it may now be more like USD55-60?
Nice talk on oil but I call Bullshit on $100 oil. No doubt there are reasons for higher oil like technological costs and demand but the main one I see is speculation. I also think many firms need to raise cash and pumping and dumping commodities looks like a good bet.
Perfect example is today when a bird took a shit on a refinery and it blew up, sure , right. Smells a lot like Enron.
Can we make the analogy that the fed lowering rates is now similar to price controls on food?
If the banks can’t charge high rates (high prices) why lend (produce)?
The more you lower rates the less likely anyone will lend money.
tbapple
Oil won’t get cheap again until about 2012, when we’ve tired of our flirtation w/ newly-printed greenbacks (oh, the smell…), and realized (again, like say we did back in 1980 or so) that real growth doth not come from having more flimsy pieces of paper…
ken h,
Maybe you’re right about oil speculators.
Then again, when with speculating on oil is that, unlike Enron shares, you need somewhere to store the stuff. Specs can juice futures in the shorter term, but over longer periods, buyers need to take delivery or the pseudo-oil ends up back on the market. Also, sustained higher prices tend to bring marginal supply online and suppress marginal demand.
No offense…but I guess in that trifecta you would be Larry? Be sure to tell us all about it.
Estragon,
I was referring to Enron when they where controlling California’s Electricity causing rolling blackouts “Grid Failures” “repairs” etc to drive the price of electricity up.
To be clear, your undertanding of the oil markets is probably leap years above mine but I still feel the fundementals I understand don’t….support 100 dollar oil.
On the otherside, I think it’s good for us in the long run as we find other sources of energy that are a little more friendly. I would be willing to bet when that happens oil will tank and the supplies will be huge. Remember when we where running out of coal. Shoot, Carter said we would be out of oil in a decade.
I do hate Maria’s giggle but she is still my favorite grapefruit smuggler. she just needs to bounce when she giggles now,..and flip her hair.
Max,
“A return on energy invested is 6:1 and expected to rise to 9:1 in the near future.” Get on a bus and tell them that in Alberta. They are wasting all their natural gas and water from the Muskeg River ( they use both in synthetic crude in huge amounts ) to make synthetic crude. As for tax laws encouraging exploration, the citizens of Saskatchewan thank the politicians of Alberta for chasing the exploration into their province through their enlightened tax laws.
Worries of a long time energy bull.
Market no like $100.10 crude. Energy markets and stock markets are increasingly correlated.
Can the broad indices stay up without rising oil and resource stocks? Trading action the so far this year says no in my subjective opinion.
Aren’t the energy and raw material sectors cyclical? Peter Lynch says that you sell cyclicals when they seem cheap.
If the price of oil drops won’t OPEC cheat
more to fund their welfare states? Aren’t refinery outages a negative for crude oil demand?
What happens if the big long term trend followers get stopped out of their long energy positions? Is the exit just as illiquid as dot.com was?
Enough of the nonsense. Does Maria have a “Fuller”, figure?
BR – CNBC’s analyst recap/summary points screen has you pegged as someone who feels “the rally still has legs” …. um, I wouldn’t describe your position in the same way. Did you sign off on those points CNBC broadcast, or do you feel CNBC has erred in describing your position?
For the sake of context, the recap screen also mentions that BR feels the market has yet to price in proper weakness (i.e. a bearish outlook).
I love the smell of rising futures in the morning. They smell like buckets and boatloads of money. Free for the taking. They smell even better when foreign markets agree, such as today. Buy today before the bargains are gone.
Talk about genuine bargains. Just look at the stock market. It’s on sale.
Posted by: cinefoz | Feb 19, 2008 8:47:17 AM
In the video title:
“…with Jeremy Zirin, UBS Wealth Management….”
Ha ha haaaa! What a sick fucking joke that is. Those assholes are one of the biggest peddlers of that subprime crap.
Seriously Mr. Obvious, It can’t. Cheesfuz is just around to give just a little reasonable doubt. Probably trades for a large company with other people’s money.
He is fun though. Little laughter never hurt anyone.
Eric, A “Fuller Figure” is where it is at!!
I totally screwed up when I said my “favorite ” as my WIFE is my favorite as she is a proud full figured Italian(The friggin best already). My wife is my favorite and I am just partial to Maria because she reminds me of my wife.
Ken H.,
Dont kid yourself. Cheesfuzz is a young kid who is trading with a $10,000 account.
B.B.,
I thought the same exact thing because he acts just like my 15 year old(without the 10,000).
But.., I did notice yesterday he had a lot of extra time to post during the day. Holiday for most traders so I concluded that he was a young kid ….at a big company..trading with somebody else’s account. Extra points with the boss posting in a bear den.
Anyway, have a good night everybody, Maria..uh I mean my wife is yelling at me to check the bread?
if you can avoid Marias sorority giggling you might accomplish something.
Posted by: hal | Feb 19, 2008 3:07:57 PM
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Leave maria alone, she’s hot.
Ken,
You answered your own question. Your 15 year old had yesterday off to I bet. School holiday. And I was being nice with a $10,000 account at E-trade. Have a good night buddy.. Maria is nice looking but I agree with the other poster, she is putting on some weight.
I would like someone who is being interviewed by her to just say, “hey shut your pie hole”
There is NO way that oil should be at $90 let alone $100 with inventories at 16 year highs.
Try to wrap your head around the similarities of today and 16 years ago……it’s pretty obvious that the premium in oil is manufactured.
End of cycle for the Bush’s both times.
Ciao
MS