NYC Temp: 11 degrees

I wake up early this morning, send Max out to get the papers, and look at the Oregon Scientific thermometer.

11 Degrees.

Watch energy prices today — oil and nat gas in particular. While local temperatures should have little impact on global energy prices, sometimes the psychology impacts traders.  And Chicago is utterly freezing also.

Is this rational?

Not at all — but sometimes, us monkeys ain’t so rational . . . 

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Discussions found on the web:
  1. Street Creds commented on Feb 11

    In Chicago, we officially have no degrees. Not a one.

  2. Ross commented on Feb 11

    You want irrational? I’ll give you irrational.

    Putting Chevron and BofA in the Dow?

    Talk about contrary indicators………..

  3. Toro commented on Feb 11

    Hey Barry?

    Where’s you awesome weekend link list?


  4. commented on Feb 11

    It’s so cold in the Windy City, the neighborhood flasher can only describe himself to passerbys…

  5. mat commented on Feb 11

    Paris, France also is at 11 degrees…. but celsius ;-)!

  6. Barry Ritholtz commented on Feb 11

    No linkfest this weekend due to a funeral.

    I probably could have cranked one out, but i just wasn’t in the right headspace for it . . .

  7. Street Creds commented on Feb 11

    Hey, my wife is so cold, when she uncrosses her legs, the furnace kicks on.

    Thank you Rodney

  8. Stuart commented on Feb 11

    This won’t help thawing out any chill in the markets…

    AIG Discloses `Weakness’ in Credit-Default Swap Accounting

    By Hugh Son

    Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) — American International Group Inc., the world’s largest insurer by assets, said auditors found a “material weakness” in how the company values its credit- default swap portfolio.

    AIG hasn’t yet determined the decline in value that will be stated in its 2007 financial statements, the New York-based insurer said in a regulatory filing today.

    AIG is caught cooking the books with their $500 billion CDS portfolio. AIG was claiming these are insuranse contracts which do not have to be marked to market. The auditors are telling them they are derivative contracts which have to be marked to market.…211/aig8- k.html

    AIG has been advised by its independent auditors, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLC, that they have concluded that at December 31, 2007, AIG had a material weakness in its internal control over financial reporting and oversight relating to the fair value valuation of the AIGFP super senior credit default swap portfolio.

  9. Walter Thatcher commented on Feb 11

    Very true. People have a hard time acknowledging that their own experiences might be representative of the population as a whole.

  10. Don commented on Feb 11

    It’s sunny and warm (high about 65 degrees) here in Alabama. Too warm for running the marathon/half-marathon we had yesterday–at least for me–I’m not a good sunner runner.

    We have basically three seasons in Alabama (since long before the global warming nonsense gave everyone a psuedo-scientific reason to bitch about the heat). The seasons are Almost Christmas (late October thru the Christmas/New Year holidays), Almost Summer (Jan–Feb/Mar/Apr, depending on the year) and Summer (the rest of the time). Almost Summer is almost over it seems. Whew–I hope this summer is a bit less miserable this year than last, but things aren’t looking too good if Almost Summer is any indication.

  11. Ross commented on Feb 11

    We Texicans have only two seasons.
    Huntin season and fishin season.

  12. michael schumacher commented on Feb 11

    Since Friday it has been over 80d here in SD.
    85d in my backyard…..

    I get paid back in spades in the summer though, sometimes you need an astronaut suit to go outside in Aug.-Sept.

    Alot nicer than what most of you are dealing with today though…


  13. DavidB commented on Feb 11

    Putting Chevron and BofA in the Dow?

    The town pump and the town dump?

    So can they officially call the index the pump and dump index?

    I don’t know where I’m getting the dump part from but the first part is accurate

  14. bluestatedon commented on Feb 11

    “…us monkeys?”

    uh oh, Barry, you’ve done it now… get ready for the onslaught from the Creationist stock marketers out there… where would Jesus invest?

    …and I’ll gladly take the wintertime zero degree weather up here in Ann Arbor instead of the tropical mugginess in the summertime deep south. I wouldn’t last a week in N.O. or Atlanta in August.

  15. Vermont Trader.. commented on Feb 11

    -13 windchill this morning.

    Interesting news from AIG this morning. I read Hussman’s essay every MOnday and his essay this morning was timely… here’s a quote

    “The main annual reporting period for financial companies will occur over the next few weeks. If this is going to be a problem, the first indication will be observed as either a) a delay in the financial report of some mid-size financial corporation, or b) the appearance of audit opinions that are not entirely “unqualified.” While it’s generally not problematic for an audit opinion to include a fourth paragraph noting a change in accounting method, those changes should always be interpreted by asking what, if anything, a company might have gained by doing so. Expressing a material uncertainty, or going so far as to express an adverse opinion or disclaimer of opinion, could potentially be a major blow not only to the company in question, but to the stock market as a whole. These reports will be worth monitoring. ”

  16. E commented on Feb 11

    Everybody talks about the weather, but no one buys out of the money puts on it.

  17. Stuart commented on Feb 11

    THAT’S IT!!!! The lousy markets, all the credit market dysfunction.. it’s because of the weather.

  18. Ross commented on Feb 11


    You have a butler named Max?

  19. Al Czervik commented on Feb 11

    No big deal Barry. We’re back in the 40s by Wednesday.

  20. Mike C commented on Feb 11

    Not sure it is irrational for NG to be reacting to the cold weather. In fact, it is probably very rational.

    NG, unlike crude oil, is primarily a domestic market. Supplies in other parts of the world are pretty close to irrelevant to U.S. pricing as the majority of supply comes from the U.S. and Canada, and the role of imported LNG is miniscule.

    The cold weather and thus increased heating demand is leading to higher then expected drawdowns and we are getting closer to the 5-year average after a long time period of being well above it.

    Bottom line, big difference between crude and NG and weather is a primary demand driver for NG so higher prices are a rational response.

  21. Toro commented on Feb 11

    Thanks Barry.

    Sorry about your loss.

  22. Eclectic commented on Feb 11

    Hey Barringo,

    Fuck you and your 11 degrees. It’s springtime where I am.

    New subject: Funeral

    All my sincere bests to whomever should receive them.

    Next new subject: Amy

    What a waste! What a miserable waste!

    If only somebody could help that poor girl control herself, and if only somebody could get her off the shit lyrics and into the proper orchestration, that girl could rewrite the nature of blues, jazz and stylistic pop. Nobody can hold a candle for her, not even Sinatra himself.

    Handled properly, she’d make people forget Billie, Ella and Frank.

    Barringo, tell me I CAN’T compartmentalize!

  23. Eclectic commented on Feb 11

    BTW, Barringo:

    It was a bigger dud than the Al Capone’s Vault fiasco was for Geraldo, in case you didn’t think I noticed.

    Lame… lame… lame.

  24. michael schumacher commented on Feb 11


    en fuego!!

    orchestration?? Nahh who needs that when I can….hey is that a crack pipe??


  25. Don commented on Feb 11


    down here in Alabama it’s always fishing and hunting season so long as you’re related to the game warden…and well…this is Alabama, you know.

  26. Walker commented on Feb 11

    My propane bill last month was $5/gallon. Spring can’t come fast enough for my pocketbook.

  27. Pat G. commented on Feb 11

    I lived in Fairbanks for three years. I remember watching the evening news in the dead of winter and having the weatherman say, “tomorrow’s high will be 44 below and the low will be 52 below”. I would yell at the TV and ask who in the hell could tell the difference? And then laughing. I live in a much warmer climate now which I prefer.

  28. badhaikuguy commented on Feb 12

    The rain festival
    From Sept. one to Aug. three one
    Here in Seattle

  29. Hmmmmm commented on Feb 12

    Probably Global Warming ;)

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