Nice interactive graphic at USA Today on housing and the economy, on a state-by-state, county-by-county MSA-by-MSA basis:
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Click thru, then mouse over any state to get msa by msa results
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Source:
How’s the economy in your hometown?
Barbara Hagenbaugh
USA TODAY
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-03-04-local-differences_N.htm
I can tell by clicking on the three states in which I am familiar with the RE market (VA, NC, GA), that this chart is about as reliable as our official unemployment statistics. I guess I believe my own lying eyes before I believe their map.
Pa’s green about to turn yellow IMHO.
BR’s comments are all over the place on paper’s fronts.
The last time papers had negative articles in front was about two weeks prior to the market crashes.
It should mean we are close.
Well, that was a tad ‘optimistic’…I almost get the feeling that prosperity is just around the corner.
The most interesting table is Home Values – clear evidence of how the leftist American media has been distorting the facts. If you read NYT, you will get an impression of American housing market undergoing Armageddon-like severe housing collapse. But the data clearly shows the different picture (suggesting that the housing problem has been greatly exaggerated and overblown by American media)
Facts not mentioned in American media:
American home prices have actually increased in 39 states (76%) and decreased in only 12 states (24%) were there was a high level of speculation in prior years.
Home Values Gain (%)
Utah 9.3
North Dakota 7.9
Montana 6.9
Alaska 6
New Mexico 5.4
Washington 5.4
Texas 5.2
Oklahoma 5.1
North Carolina 4.9
South Dakota 4.8
Idaho 4.6
Alabama 4.5
Louisiana 4.1
Mississippi 4.1
Tennessee 4.1
Oregon 3.9
South Carolina 3.8
Arkansas 3.6
Kentucky 3.5
West Virginia 3
Pennsylvania 2.8
Iowa 2.7
Georgia 2.6
Kansas 2.5
Missouri 2.5
Nebraska 2.5
Vermont 2.4
Delaware 2
Hawaii 2
Illinois 2
DC 1.9
Maine 1.9
Wisconsin 1.9
Indiana 1.5
Colorado 1.4
Connecticut 0.8
Maryland 0.8
Virginia 0.8
Vs.
Home Values Fell (%)
Wyoming -8.3
California -6.7
Nevada -5.9
Florida -4.7
Michigan -4.3
Rhode Island -2.6
Arizona -2.4
Massachusetts -2.2
Minnesota -1.2
New Hampshire -0.6
Ohio -0.4
New Jersey -0.3
It seems quite early in this process to determine the outcome on home prices of credit contraction. Bank lending standards didn’t begin to tighten until late 2007 – and without the securitization process to work its leveraged mortgage magic, we are back to reliance on a pristine banking system for mortgage loans.
A much better guage of the state of state economies would be in tax recipts – how many states are straining to meet spending projections?
I left a comment at USAToday. They show Bakersfield, California in an expansion. Whatever data and methodology they are using is worthless.
Jurgen,
By my count only 12 states had home price appreciation that met or exceeded inflation.
And the world’s 5th largest economy is down 10+%, inflation-adjusted.
Nit-pick: When you click thru, the detail on the map is MSA by MSA, not county by county
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BR: Done
I live in Vermont. If the Burlington area is in expansion, why has the average Asking price on Coldwell Banker Realty (upscale homes) houses for sale in Chittenden County gone from $386,000 last fall to $356,000 now? The chart is optimistic, to say the least.
That chart and the stats are at least 6 to 12 months behind the times.
I live in an exurb of Dallas and trust me, foreclosures are up and prices are down. Inventory sits.
They show Denver-Aurora in the green? Nonsense. That area began tanking in late 06 and no bottom in sight.
Upon further examination, I discovered the the data was from Moodys.
I take it all back.
The source for the map is Moody’s. I guess they found something for the CDO rating folks to do. Case in point – look at Petaluma CA – in beautiful wine country. A realtor friend there tells me they are down to selling one home per week – with a 400 home inventory. Prices are down almost 30% from the peak for upper end homes. Yet on the map it shows up as yellow! Maybe this is the latest tack – if you can’t control reality, control perception.
My numbers:
Utah -9.3
North Dakota -7.9
Montana -6.9
Alaska -6
New Mexico -5.4
Washington -5.4
Texas -5.2
Oklahoma -5.1
North Carolina -4.9
South Dakota -4.8
Idaho -4.6
Alabama -4.5
Louisiana -4.1
Mississippi -4.1
Tennessee -4.1
Oregon -3.9
South Carolina -3.8
Arkansas -3.6
Kentucky -3.5
West Virginia -3
Pennsylvania -2.8
Iowa -2.7
Georgia -2.6
Kansas -2.5
Missouri -2.5
Nebraska -2.5
Vermont -2.4
Delaware -2
Hawaii -2
Illinois -2
DC -1.9
Maine -1.9
Wisconsin -1.9
Indiana -1.5
Colorado -1.4
Connecticut -0.8
Maryland -0.8
Virginia -18.8
Here’s the money quote from the USA Today article that accompanied the map:
Quote: “Businesses and consumers not in areas most affected by the housing boom and bust are not escaping the effects of the housing slump entirely. That’s because in the fallout from the subprime mortgage mess, banks have tightened lending standards for a variety of loans, no matter where the borrower is.
‘The whole key (for the economy) since August has been the credit crunch extending beyond housing,’ says James Diffley, managing director of U.S. regional services at Global Insight.” End Quote.
So, if you have an economy that is based on debt expansion for growth, and then you reduce debt availability, what happens?
Of course, if distorted-facts bullshit could be used as credit fertilizer, there would be no growth problem.
The logic of this methodology stikes me as suspect. The NBER indicators (industrial production, etc.) and weightings thereof may be a reasonable way to describe the national economy, but don’t likely describe local economies well at all.
“The most interesting table is Home Values – clear evidence of how the leftist American media has been distorting the facts.”
Those numbers come from OFHEO, Q4, in a news release titled WIDESPREAD HOUSE PRICE DECLINES IN FOURTH QUARTER referring to the purchase-only house price index. The numbers cited in USA Today are “OFHEO’s all-transactions House Price Index (HPI), which includes data from home sales and appraisals for refinancings”. Even OFHEO headlines the former. So are they leftist too?
It will be fascinating to see how the town property tax people appraise this year. If they use the method of actual sales, then taxes should go down. However, CEOs aren’t the only people paid for shameless mendacity.
Let’s see now, since the projected projection of the rate of rising descent of present value of the demographic wealth contingent is positive, taxes must be raised by 5% ! And furthermore, when the fresh skin of an animal, cleaned and divested of hair, fat and other extraneous matter is immersed in a dillute solution of tannic acid, a chemical combination ensues converting the gellatinous tissue into a nonprotrecible substance impervious to and insoluble in water.
How to make leather by Al the Green Bubble Man.
Given that the state economist of Minnesota, Tom Stinson, declared Minnesota to be in a recession in January, it would see that the chart is a tad optomistic.
Just an observation from the flight deck….
I was in a major (locally based) auto/sports store in (Portland) OR, and was amazed as to the lack of customers (a weeknight) and how the associates (er, sales staff) were standing around talking to each other out of sheer desperation.
The store was brimming with merchandise, but just a handful of customers.
I asked the sales associate if it was ‘just me’ or was there a lot less staff (and customers) compared to a year ago.
The young man readily disclosed that the store chain was hurting, and staff had been cut to the bare bones level of operation since xmas. The concern he expressed spoke volumns about the retailing sector.
Now, what was that question (USA today) about expansion? I sense the perception here in PDX is of ‘hanging on’ to what was.
Noteworthy that Massachusetts, despite the drop in home values, and the gloom and doom of local media, the state continues to rake in more and more taxes, particularly income tax (no tax rate increase). That says that the chart is probably, for now, correct. Mass is in expansion, except for areas in the far west.
If you click on the little blue arrow you’ll see that they tell you how it was computed: ‘four key indicators…employment, industrial production, retail sales adjusted for inflation, and income.’ Housing prices are not part of their measure, which I find MORE useful since it’s easy to layer that on yourself as one sees fit.
I too found the HPI list suspicious and wondered if it was lying with stats along the lines of using averages in skewed data, for example. Touché explained part of it, but for those who are interested, I found this, which explains the numbers look better than people’s experience shows.
“The HPI is a weighted repeat-sales index, meaning that it measures average price changes in repeat sales or refinancings on the same properties. This information is obtained by reviewing repeat mortgage transactions on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac since January 1975. The HPI is updated each quarter as additional mortgages are purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The new mortgage acquisitions are used to identify repeat transactions for the most recent quarter and for each quarter since the first quarter of 1975.” … “is based on transactions involving conforming, conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included.”
cite: http://www.inreex.com/HousePriceInd.aspx
But I’ll take the opposite partisan position of Jurgen and point out that the chart is from a right-wing government agency being republished without question (like everything else the press has published from this government in the last 7 years) by a press too lazy to check what is being said (and or, hoping not to annoy the NAR because ad dollars have grown scarce.)
How is New York in an expansion with all the ibankers and mortgage traders getting laid off? Oddly similar to the national threat level system…
Income taxes are a trailing indicator.
Check out Rhode Island
Where the hell are we going to get 450 to 600 million for the upcoming budget? This state has got to quit shooting itself or it will COLLASPE.
I must assume that though we are seeing many foreclosures, the demand for affordable rental units must be on the rise to accomodate those unable to buy. Is there anway to calculate those stats?