Lots of good looking infographics in the papers today:
First up: The Wall Street Journal. This solo chart starts out simple, looking at but one factor over time: NFP
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10 Year NFP Chart
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Next up: The New York Times had not one but two interesting graphics.
The first is similar to the chart above, only its a three-way — it adds S&P500 price data, as well as Home Price Changes (y-y):
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Signs of Trouble
click for larger graphic
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Finally, we see this giant pictograph, conveying an orgy full of info, all at once:
Labor Picture in February:
click for larger graphic
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Sources:
Jobs Data Suggest U.S. Is in Recession
Largest Payroll Fall In Five Years Spurs New Stimulus Talk
SUDEEP REDDY
WSJ, March 8, 2008; Page A1
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120489597965119543.html
Sharp Drop in Jobs Adds to Grim Picture of U.S. Economy
EDMUND L. ANDREWS
NYT, March 8, 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/08/business/08econ.html
End to the Good Times (Such as They Were)
DAVID LEONHARDT
NYT, March 8, 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/08/business/08recession.html
Barry,
I have posted a chart of the yr/yr % change of Employment in Services ex Health & Education.
It looks like a bouncing ball losing momentum. An 8-9 year cycle is apparent and
the deceleration taking place is suggestive of another bottom expected to take place within a year or so.
See “Services: Cyclical and Losing Momentum”
I just got my repricing notice for my 5/25 mortgage. It resets this year for the 1st time and will reset annually until I pay it off.
My monthly payment went DOWN 1 cent.
That blessed 1 year t bill. I love it.
I was going to pay it off because I thought the payment would go up unconscionably. Until the CD matures that I was going to use, I am still making money on the spread. God, what a great bank.
Yup. The country is going to hell when all these damnable mortgages reprice.
Tell me again how bad things are. I need to laugh out loud.
One more thing …
I am a smug son of a bitch right now.
It must really suck when reality smacks you in the face like a big ugly fat lipped fish. The country isn’t sinking in quicksand. Roubini really is a paranoid.
Money will not be sucked out of consumers pocketbooks when this horrible repricing occurs. If mine repriced a couple of weeks later, I would have had pocket money left over.
It’s only an unpleasant downdraft and an exceptionally great time to stock pick!
Maybe some of these horrible tranch loans are not really so bad after all.
Tel me, has anyone ACTUALLY worked the numbers, or is everybody just repeating the same scare stories about the sky falling when loans are repriced. Everyone should be so lucky to have their loan based on the 1 year t bill rate.
I am shaking my butt and doing a happy dance. I am shaking my butt and doing a happy dance. I am shaking my butt and doing a happy dance.
Sorry to threadcrash, but I missed the appearance on Bloomberg on Friday (boss just would not be happy if I took part of the morning to watch TV) So I was wondering what BR had to suggest for places to put money during recession.
Cinefoz, my contrary indicator.
Glad to have you back. Thought you went down with your dinghy load.
Good idea not paying off the old homestead. Borrow against that CD, man, and get it in the market pronto!
If I were you, I’d refi into a 15yr fixed while the window is still open. You don’t want to adjust when T-Bills hit 10%.
Seriously you do have a point though. I know of a lot of resets coming at Libor plus. With Libor under 3%, a whole lot of folks will breathe easier. I call it a half trillion dollar aspirin/mitigator for the few.
so some people are gloating right now.
Apparently they have good paying jobs,
or they aren’t being foreclosed,
and they don’t have to buy bread and milk and stuff like that.
Just got off the phone with my brother-in-law, who works/has worked for Roadway, for over 20 years – it doesn’t look good.
Ross,
No, I just used discretion and moved into the shadows. There are too many bad news fanatics here to argue with.
Whenever anything comes along to bolster their belief that the end is near, the nuts really come out of the woodwork and I can’t cope. The news of the past few days has been enough to make the average bad news enthusiast cream their shorts.
Imagine orca fat, sweaty, disgusting lumps of self indulgence frolicking in public doing things normally done in private, and not cleaning up afterwards, just because they think they finally won something.
I can’t deal with that shit.
Fortunately, reality has cursed the damnation they sought to spread through their pessimism and selective reasoning.
JustinTheSceptic,
One of THE BEST indicators of the economy is intercity truck tonnage. I used to follow Yellow and Roadway in olden days. I know they are a merged company now. We used to call them “Roadhog” and “Yellow Dog.”
Any elaboration or observations from the B. in law would be welcomed. This is a good company in my opinion and at some point might be a good investment idea. I have done well with them in the past.
Cinefoz,
Lots of luck with T notes. Those bills do function on demand. You really expect demand to climb ? Demand for Treasury notes will materialize when the premium overcomes inflation plus 3%. You really should try running some real numbers some time.
Speaking of real numbers, the BLS (Burritos of Lying Statistics of course) will publish the employment numbers adjusted for reality as opposed to the birth-death model for 2007 on the 11th of March. Get your shorts in folks. It’s going to be a high VIXen day.
>> Imagine orca fat, sweaty, disgusting …
Cinefoz, that was a bit unnecessary.
I would like to know more about your reset though. New fixed mortgages are around 6%. So, what’s your newly reset ARM rate: 5%?
What do bearish posters think of this? If people’s payments don’t increase, what do those ARM reset charts look like now?
“what do those ARM charts look like now?’
No doubt lower ARM resets will help a lot of people. If we still had State usuary laws, it would help a lot of Credit Card debt holders as well. To CC companies, the guys that pay off monthly are known as deadbeats. Can’t earn a Vig from a prudent man.
The problem as I see it is that we have become a tote the note society. Thinking has gone from ‘can I afford it’ to ‘can I make the payment.’
Artificially low interest rates allowed more folks to think they could afford it.
Stretched out repayment schedules helped many to make the monthly.
In the 1950’s VA and FHA loans were amortized over 20 years max. You also could not borrow for appliances, air conditioning or pools as these were not thought to last 20 years. Car loans were typically 2 year.
I am not argueing we return to yesteryear. The point is that the rubber band breaks at a certain stretch.
WHEN interest rates return to normality AS credit standards are tightened, a lot of folks WILL be forced to get their rides from Friendly Sam the Tote the Note man.
Lenders in the 50’s and 60’s knew from experience that house prices could fall and yes, lending was more local.
Bank lending officers would meet at the end of the year and guffaw at the guy would had the highest loan losses. Poor boy would then look for a new job. Today you loot a bank and get $50 mil for your efforts and if you really really stink, the Fed will allow you a do over.
I’m beating a dead horse here. I’ve got GWS, global warming syndrome. We had 5 inches of snow in N. Texas yesterday.
retrospect to New Years 2003
lets make a toast to the military industrial complex and MEW …
may the party continue without burning up the weapons and bankruptcys
>>What do bearish posters think of this? If people’s payments don’t increase, what do those ARM reset charts look like now?
What do I think of it? 1 anecdotal case. And this is why people are screwed up…what are we talking about here, the value of the asset or the montly payment? Let me say this for the unteenth time: this is an asset price problem. Just because cinefoz’s payment didn’t go doesn’t make the problem any less severe. And I would like to know how the terms on his note went.
cinefoz’s posts always remind me of the ramblings of a gambler. he never tells you about his bad bets, he just glories in any good ones. How much is his asset worth? How much could he now sell it for? If he didn’t sell at the top, then he is less wealthy by definition no matter what his montly payment does. THAT’s the problem here, and he pastes over it. The issue is the equity vs. the debt. His post reminds me of an analyst on bubblevision…surely most of you realize what the actual issue is here.
Would to god that he goes back into hiding or gives us some trenchant anyalysis of the issues instead of ancedotal crap.
How This Economy Is Going To Play Out
http://firedoglake.com/2008/03/08/how-this-economy-is-going-to-play-out/
One of my prouder moments in life was when cinefoz called me a retard.
cinefoz, I’ve got a 5% fixed mortgage and rental income that pays it for me. I’m rich. I’m under 40. I’m crushing the market this year. I don’t work (aside from considering reading your idiotic posts as such)
Things are going really great for me. So using your logic, they must be going great for everyone, right?
Also, I’ve made a very nice return shorting the market and on gold, since the time you called me a retard.
By all means, go long.
Your retarded friend with the fat returns.
“Would to god that he [cinefoz]goes back into hiding or gives us some trenchant anyalysis of the issues instead of ancedotal crap.”
NO, NO, NO! PLEASE don’t chase cinefoz away again. Every time he calls a bottom we get a new low.
He’s GOLD Jerry, GOLD!
Cinefoz: Agree with wunsacon on your questionable prose there.
Addressing your subject:
I sold two plots of residential land in December and paid off the mortgage. Land was on the market for 6 months and it moved at my price. New owners paid cash and plan to BUILD this spring. Contractors are begging for work… they’ll do well.
I had a 4.5% 15 yr fixed but paid it down anyway. It just feels good to have it over with.
Busy as hell at work too… (a MANUFACTURING concern).
The sky is NOT falling. I’m long large caps.
It’s anecdotal, yes… watch the Americans adapt… it’s what we do best.
I admit I’m hedging in one way…. we’re putting in a vegetable garden… got my guns too. Burn firewood (zero carbon footprint :-)
ross: 120 inches of snow here in Vermont so far. A record. Global warming.
LOL
Barry, great website. Good idea for the overlay chart of NFP, S&P 500 & house prices. It sure looks like we’re on the verge of a long down market.
I wonder, though, if 2008 is the same as 2001. Prior to 2001 we had a huge stock market bubble whereas now we’ve had a housing bubble. Will we have another 9/11? I’d like to see a similar chart for a more similar period.
The chart does show how the market turns before the NFP numbers do. Things look bad now, for sure, but what are the signs of bottoming out and start of a new cycle. What does the market look like after steep Fed rate cuts (whether you agree with them or not). If the US (and Japan and probably soon Europe) is going into as bad a recession as expected, then how can export driven emerging economies continue to grow and commodity prices continue to shoot up? Won’t the dollar stabilize once other countries start to slow, too?
cinefoz is right in that that is one of the games the Fed is playing. Since a certain percent of loans are tied to T-bills and LIBOR they have driven those rates into the ground and this will help some of the real estate “investors” who got in over their heads… as long as they can keep those rates low for the length of loan or at least as long as the equity is negative. It does not help those who are making neg-am payments on option arms, those whose rates are tied to other things, those who had 2% teaser rates and were counting on a refi, those who need to sell for any reason and don’t have equity. And how long, exactly, can the fed keep rates that low? Who knows? Definitely the Fed driving the interest rate low has “helped” a lot of people who can’t afford their house stay in it for a little while longer. And cinfeoz things this is a good thing. This tells you something about cinefoz.
Wouldn’t it be cool to be one of the ranch owners across the street from George W. Bush’s ranch? A true a-hole would turn his ranch into a gigantic trailer park. I wish I could be that guy.
Cinefoz:
People here aren’t pessimistic. People here are realistic, and they’ve put up with that slander (a Rovism if there ever was one) for a long time. Being realistic means they have a very good chance of being correct. They have been, and continue to be both realistic and correct. Don’t tase them for it, bro.
To hear you tell it, the economy is fine, the Stock Market is run by Men of Sterling Character whose word is their bond and who would sooner give their worldly fortunes than to have their honor questioned, gold is worthless, fundamentals – like deficits – don’t matter, and it’s still Morning in America.
Good to hear your mortgage went down. Affordable mortgages are important. Now, when the underlying asset is priced at 60% of peak, I’ll be able to get a really good deal on the asset and the loan.
BTW: How are your bread prices? Gas? Inventory moving at the local car lot? Have you visited a Home Depot lately? Seen those unemployment numbers? (they’re skewed, ya’ know – the government don’t want nobody ta know the truth – it’s all very hush hush).
Realism.
Philip don’t forget that the LIBOR decoupled from the Fed rate for a long time and only got back in line once they started the $billions of “T”AF (I think the temporary part is obsolete now).
Yes things are peachy.
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/03/financial-crisis-third-wave.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN0832645120080308
>> Just because cinefoz’s payment didn’t go up doesn’t make the problem any less severe.
It *might*. I have to at least entertain that possibility. Let’s take a quick look at recent rates:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/
So, rates are coming down. Not just for cinefoz but for all.
Six months ago, when we all looked at the ARM reset charts showing huge bulges in resets scheduled for 1Q08, we all thought “hey, more foreclosures coming”. But, one of our assumptions at the time was: people’s rates are going to jump from 4% to 7%, which is almost doubling their payments. Well, that’s not the case any longer. (Or is it?) So, are our bearish expectations developed 6+ months ago about housing — and the economy — in 2008 going to be met? If people’s housing payments don’t rise, why won’t they continue spending on other items?
Here’s what *might* happen to sink housing/economy anyway:
– Food and energy inflation might continue eating into everyone’s budget. With less left over, people might have to cut down on other purchasing anyway.
– Without the wealth effect of rising house prices, people might reduce discretionary spending (or spending growth).
>> And I would like to know how the terms on his note went.
Yes…and “what percentage” of ARMS are based on “what terms”.
>> ross: 120 inches of snow here in Vermont so far. A record. Global warming. LOL.
You do know “global warming” theorists expect an increase in just a couple of degrees over the *next* century, right? For the most part, it hasn’t happened yet. GW hardly affects today’s weather.
It’s the beginning of March. Snow and cold are still normal parts of the weather cycle. The fact that “we still have winter” doesn’t discredit GW theorists’ models.
if it works this way then what we need is
Bureau of Labor Statistics, (2005). “Labor force projections to 2014: retiring boomers”, Monthly Labor Review, November 2005.
Congressional Budget Office, (2004). “CBO’s Projections of the labor force”, September 2004
wunsacon,
My reset remains at 4.875. Their calculation somehow lowered the payment 1 cent. It’s probably a rounding error in my favor. The repricing rate would be about .4% – .5% lower if it repriced this week.
Re the ‘questionable prose’
A 2×4 and a kind word works much better than a kind word when making a point. Sometimes kind words aren’t even necessary. Why use what you don’t need to use?
Besides, the cloistered group of doomsters who use selective reasoning and selective facts to express mutual admiration for each other are just too easy to piss off. All you need is a little logic and facts that don’t support their uninformed group think.
There seems to be an entire industry focused on bringing you the bad news. I suppose these people are the mirror image of those who said there was no limit to up a few months ago. A few voices in the background threw buckets of cold water on the former. I am just pointing out the uncomfortable obvious to the later. Things will be getting better much sooner that the doomsters wish for.
Cinefoz,
So I beleive in your first post, you called a bottom again today? Just curious. Sooner or later you are going to be right. To bad you put the rest of your cash to work on that last bottom, you could add to your postions tomorrow. You have a conforming loan that you got in 2003 based on the T-bill. A little unusual. most loans in 2003 were based on Libor. If you purchased in 2003, then you are probably still slightly ahead on equity, but not much. Only 3 more months till the housing bottom, right?
B.B.
It’s the same bottom. I bought low and averaged down when things fell a little more. On last Thursday, I was at break-even YTD. Considering I have a longish view, but will probably sell if the S&P has a rally in a few weeks, I plan to make a lot this year.
Stock charts are very useful for tracking company financial and market trends, but there are a lot of differences in the many charts available.
Google Answers has a very useful overview of free stock charts, and compares their features, such as history, earnings dates, download functions, and so on.
Worth a look, for anyone still searching for their favorite stock chart tools:
Stock Charts on the Internet
http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=554448
.
>> My reset remains at 4.875.
Holy smokes! That’s *got* to make a difference.
>> You[, cinefoz,] have a conforming loan that you got in 2003 based on the T-bill. A little unusual. most loans in 2003 were based on Libor.
B.B., even Libor is down considerably. Look at those Bloomberg rates.
What am I missing? Why isn’t cinefoz’s bottom call right — or not “incredibly wrong” — now that the ARM resets won’t double everyone’s payments?
The most important piece missing from this thread: for the years 2004, 2005, and 2006 25% of ALL mortgages were interest-only or negative-amort. How many of those people do you think were paying off any equity into their homes? Even if their ARMS reset this year and the rate stays the same it’s only a delay before next year’s reset. They won’t be able to refinance with negative equity in their home.
Will the FED be able to keep rates this low next year? If they do what will become of the dollar and the price of commodities?
These pics are priceless when put side by side.
The Signs of Trouble series reminds us that there is a large percentage chance that we might see the S&P exhibit further decline before this is over.
Keeping in mind this is a Market, not an “absolute auction” that so many individuals in the media would like to have us believe.
Cycles make the world go around!