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The anti-bailout backlash has already begun: It turns out that Renters and homeowners without mortgages are 60% of the population.
These folks want to know why Congress rushing to bailout speculative builders and high-flying borrowers and their lenders with sweetheart government loans via your tax dollars. . . .
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So true. Bail out what and whom?
for the same reason the feds bailed out all the farmers in the 80s with the special chapter 12 bankruptcy provision that allowed farmers who were bankrupt to keep the land and are now sitting on gold mines.
the squeaky wheel gets the grease.
‘Xactly. I understand the impulse of the Democratic politicians who want to spare some people pain–and also think it’s less heinous than bailing out the loser financials–but it’s not a great idea.
I’m a renter, by the way. Not angry, either. Resigned is more like it. It’s all par for the course.
Finally. Why the hell should I bail these people out? Politicians act like it’s the right thing to do. Fact the hurts: The vast majority of homeowners in distress were either greedy or stupid.
Once again the irresponsible are bailed out at the expense of the responsible. Boy, am I getting tired of these f’ing pols buying votes and campaign contributions with my tax dollars.
This one has also been going for awhile:
http://www.petitiononline.com/bailout/petition.html
And this group of bubble bloggers also have this site now:
http://www.stopthehousingbailout.com/
Welfare for the wealthy. Peanuts for everyone else.
Off topic but sort of related. Anyone see the PBS show on universal healthcare the other night?
Japan, Germany, Taiwan, Switzerland. Universal coverage, happy consumers, half to two-thirds the percentage of GNP we have here. Where hundreds of thousands of people file bankruptcy every year to subsidize champagne and caviar quality healthcare for the rich.
Bob A. – One BIG item always forgotten when speaking about the lack of universal health care in the US is this – guns or butter! The country’s mentioned in the PBS show do not spend nearly the budget percentage on the military as the US.
Want universal health care in the US without a tax increase? Easy – reduce military spending in the US down to what Japan spends as a percent of their budget and presto! Free health care for all.
I have a mortgage, but I’m in the “backlash” category anyway.
All of this bailing out is going to contribute to a bigger deficit, which will mean higher taxes down the road.
I joined the dark side today. I made my money. I’m up year to date a few percent. (Only a very few people can say that, so I guess some bragging rights are involved.) And now I’m back to 100% cash. I might have been a little early, but profit is profit and greed kills.
Stocks are not going up very far. The growing commodities bubble will raise prices for necessities and keep discretionary spending low, resulting in lowered profits for many companies. This is no environment for rising stocks anywhere in the world.
There is no Bernanke Put and there never will be. The ‘stock market floor’ that is being perceived is really a cover over an abyss that sealed up when creative central banking saved the world last month. The cover is not necessarily fixed in position at the current level. That being said, it will probably always cover the abyss.
The falling dollar will sustain the commodity bubble in spirit. Economically, a 1% fall in the dollar should not create a corresponding 10% increase in the price of oil. This is bubble-economics, firmly in control. Oceans of money need to go somewhere, and the stupid money is chasing ‘hard assets’ now.
Also, the TED spread is telling a story. I just learned of the TED spread today. Having looked at it and having read about it, I think another shoe is about to drop soon. It might be from another wave of credit problems. It might be from lenders being afraid that good money is going to be wasted on commodity bubble investing. Or it might be from a perception of a coming change.
I suspect interest rates will come to the rescue soon. The Fed would be wrong, and possibly stupid, to lower rates again at the next meeting. Higher rates via market forces and stable rates from the Fed (for now), would shock the commodity bubble into submission. Stocks will nosedive viciously for a short time, but liquidity, as supported by the Fed, would probably not suffer too badly. The dollar will strengthen as a side benefit, causing all manner of imported items to fall in price.
I probably won’t get back into the market until I see some wreckage to sift through.
I signed this petition, and here is my basic grievance.
I am still renting. I am still renting because even though I have a great credit rating and a sizable down payment, I can’t afford homes in the areas where I have lived and worked (Seattle and Bay Area). And I can’t afford homes in these areas because of the housing bubble, a bubble created by greed and fraud.
And since I am still renting, I am basically throwing my money into a hole in the ground. I will never see this money again. It is gone.
So … what I am wondering is, where is MY bailout? If it wasn’t for the Housing Bubble, I would be in a home right now, paying rent to _myself_ (and to the bank) instead of to some stranger on the street. Who is going to reimburse me for all the rent money I poured into a hole while Mr. and Ms. Bubblehead flipped houses and played make believe rich people?
I am pretty pissed, I have to say. I will never see that money again, and all these people crying and whining right now about money they lost while driving the rest of us out of the market on an orgy of greed and fraud. These people don’t need a bailout. They need to be in jail. And they need to write me a check.
-Angry Frank
cinefoz . . . welcome to the dark side :-).
that’s not the real cinefoz….
If it were you’d know it…
Ciao
MS
Homeowners without mortgages aren’t likely to object too much to a bailout. There folks, particularly the older ones, are going to understand the bailout helps support the value of their mortgage-free property.
Renters, as is true of taxpayers generally, will assume somebody else is paying for it unless there’s a specific offset attached to the program(s). Not likely.
Neither group has effectively objected to the mortgage interest deduction in the past, so what makes anyone think they’ll object effectively now?
austincompany, the pbs show about healthcare said those other countries spend less and get more on healthcare than we do, regardless of guns. so that old bs is just that. and i’m sure the japanese and the germans are worried about someone attacking them.
It’s a damn good question actually. Why should we bailout Wall Street or the speculators? Anyone who took out an exotic and now claims they were victims is more full of shit than a Christmas Turkey! Oh, and in fact many of the imbeciles backed the exotic up with a HELOC or second but now claim victimhood. Welcome to the world of speculation where an in the money call may or may not pay off fools.
These folks want to know why Congress rushing to bailout speculative builders and high-flying borrowers and their lenders with sweetheart government loans via your tax dollars…
So Wall Street types don’t have to eat a bunch of bad mortgage debt?
Bob A.
PBS dropped the ball by not discussing the subject of medical underwriting. I assume these other countries charge one universal premium regardless if one is young or old; healthy or sick.
The point is free market economics will never produce efficiencies in healthcare.
I agree with MS,
if that were the real cinefoz
he would be talking about GOOG +$68 a share
after hours (took ~30 minutes)
looks like the break to the upside
for all the major indexes just occured (After hours of course)
What do you think the headlines will be tomorrow? another 400 point rally should be impossible, but then again…
based on Goog’s celebration of itself I fully expect the real cinefoz to show up and gloat about how Goog’s Qtr. makes an entire market.
I fully expect the futures to be cooked right after C drops it’s bomb and is ignored in favor of Goog and it’s implications of higher costs to achieve those results ( see there is a drawback to “growing” )
Ciao
MS
no idea Mark however I am positioned for both eventualities.
And on cue as the market breaks upwards (again as you pointed out in AH of course) we get the jaw boning fed talking about how concerned they are about inflation…..
This is just ridiculous and is doing far more damage than any short term gain(s) can ever compensate all of us for.
I guess Goog is now on the good list after it was allowed to fix the ad rate biz via the FTC rubber stamping an illegal monopoly.
Wild, Wild West out there…
Ciao
MS
Didn’t I tell you to cover ASAP?
Google blow-out earnings!!!!
Google is knocking the cover off the ball and putting the final nail in the bear coffin.
Google hit the ball out of park and raised the guidance.
Mr ASAP-
Coming in here on the whim of one (1) companys earnings and screaming “I am right” when you most certainly had every chance to do it BEFORE 3 minutes ago is just a little too easy for me….
But go ahead and think that GooG results make an entire fundamental market.
You and what little money you have will be parted on that sort of “advice”
Ciao
MS
>>Google hit the ball out of park and raised the guidance>>
That’s funny how on earth can a company that provides NO GUIDANCE raise what they do not provide????
Fool.
Ciao
MS
I am a renter and I object to the bailout because it is bad policy. I don’t particularly care about tax dollars being wasted on stupid people who made bad financial decisions. Given the economic situation we are entering, the government is going to spend a lot of money helping stupid people. All the mortgage bailouts have been so small that they won’t have a noticeable effect on the US government budget.
The problem with all the proposed bailouts is that they are making the problem worse. People are acting like the problem is the high foreclosure rate, but the real problem is that houses are too expensive. We will not leave this recession until houses and other assets have fallen relative to wages. Given how rarely wages increase during recessions, the only way out is to let house prices fall. The more the government fights falling home prices, the longer and more painful this recession will be.
The least painful option is controlled high inflation. 10-15% per year for 3-4 years (while assets stay at current prices) should fix things pretty well. But the inflation has to include wages for it to work. And we have to maintain control over it. Which would be very tricky. The only government policy that is likely to lead to the required wage inflation would be massive increases in government hiring. It doesn’t even matter what people are being hired to do, they just have to be given jobs that pay above market rates. Some useful jobs that could be created would be infrastructure repair, better teachers, and renewable resource development.
I’m a mortgage-holding homeowner (yes, I bought long enough ago, and put enough down that I still have considerable equity) who joins the “Angry 60%”.
Not only should the gubmint not bail anybody out; the fed should be RAISING interest rates to protect the savings of those of us who behaved responsibly.
We have a name for ‘homedebtors’ who can’t afford their mortgage payments; we call them “Renters.”
A bailout in an election year is probably a given, however, in my opinion they should wait until the depth of the foreclosure/walkaway problem becomes more apparent. What’s worse than a bailout? One that occurs before the bottom is near and misses the ones that hung in there until the bitter end. The other risk is that the bailout is either ineffective or does not take place. We could have an entire slice of the population that looks at housing differently, i.e. ain’t never gonna make that mistake again. When I decide to dell myu fully paid for house, I would like to see some buyers out there. Ideology has gotten us nowhere in the past seven plus years.
Nope, I don’t follow Google.
My reading is that there is a solid foundation in the economy, Google being a representative example. There are also significant weaknesses, and the parasitical commodity speculators will erode the strengths if allowed to. But a responsible central bank would not subsidize commodity speculators while penalizing the rest of the world by mindlessly keeping all rates low. Short rates, OK for a little while to shore up credit in general. Long rates need to go to the moon, and intermediate rates need to follow proportionately. The resulting panic will be refreshing and reinvigorating. Time to fix the dollar.
This will probably cornhole a few hedge funds that want to profit from the misery of others. Cry me river.
Obviously, creative means would be required to have an effect on long and intermediate rates. International cooperation would probably be required. Not lowering rates at the next FOMC meeting, and announcing that current low rates are only temporary would rattle a few cages. Making liquidity available on condition of ‘acceptable use’ would be revolutionary, but a pretty good idea.
The alternative is FOMC subsidization of commodity bubbles and the resultant rape of all affected.
Whoe are you, and what have you done with the real cinefoz?
MS said:
“But go ahead and think that GooG results make an entire fundamental market.”
No, but after much argument on these boards about whether “tech” is less exposed to the credit crisis, we now have Intel, IBM and Google reporting decent to outstanding quarters.
Jury is still out, but some very major data points. Large cap US “tech” companies including services, semis, hardware and internet, seem to be weathering things well. And that doesn’t mean you should dive into them hoping for another year of 20% stock returns, but it does suggest that they can weather pretty severe dislocations…
The really sad thing (imho) is that almost everyone seems resigned to the idea that politicians will always do things which are moronic. Maybe it is an idea for a long-forgotten age that our leaders were supposed to be intelligent, and make intelligent decisions for benefit of everyone.
I, like most other people, think a bailout is a terrible policy, but is inevitable. The best I can do is express my view to the politicians who supposedly represent me (haha) that I don’t want a bailout, and vote for whatever candidates appear most against a bailout (which, in the presidential case, would be McCain as far as I can tell). In the meantime, I’ll keep wishing for a country where the candidates get votes because they would be good, and not just the least-bad. Unfortunately, I don’t know how to get from here to there, and it’s so far away it has vanished into the horizon of idealism.
Common Cinefoz,
You are disappointing me. Why are you 100% in cash? Are you nuts?
I thought you were a rational thinker (not like these chronically depressed gloom and doom boneheads)
I have been 4x levered since S&P 1280-1285 (read my prior posts) and not selling (only trading 25-50% around the core position), plan to go 8x levered if S&P cuts through 1400 and holds there for a few trading days.
The bears are extremely complacent and extremely over-shorted the market. We are setting up for a Dow 2000 points run.
What follows is identity theft. Please show some class and don’t forge my name.
—————————————
Whoe are you, and what have you done with the real cinefoz?
Posted by: cinefoz | Apr 17, 2008 5:40:03 PM
Just trying to gauge the consensus….refi a fixed 15yr mortgage now, or wait and hope the rate comes down further??
I bet the vast majority of current mortgage owners are also happily chugging along and are in no need of bailout.
Didn’t I Tell You To Cover ASAP?
Assuming you are for real,
If oil was not $115 and going up and if the dollar was not international toilet paper I would be waiting for a big payoff. Right now, the FOMC is subsidizing a growing commodity bubble. The only thing making stocks rise now is short covering, I suspect.
I preserved capital and made some money to boot. Now I am waiting for round 2 of carnage. Fortunately, this one will not be as bad as the first and will leave the foundation I will have cash to build on.
BTW, the difference between me and the common gloomster who normally hangs here is I do what I do for a reason, not out of despair or hand wringing. I see ups and downs, as opposed to the common gloomsster who continually thinks today is bad and tomorrow should be even worse.
Common Cinefoz, you need to be forward looking.
Read my prior posts, approximately two months back, when I said that oil would hit $115 and it would be the top — finito la comedia to the oil run. As far as the dollar, $1.60 for Euro is the top (read the statements from EU officials — $1.60 is the line in the sand)
U.S. consumers have indebted themselves up to their eyeballs in the misplaced belief that this generation will have it as good as the previous generation – social change moves slowly, but the path is irrevocably downward for the middle classes.
They will fight tooth and nail to hold onto a middleclass lifestyle until the sherriff comes knockin’ and shows them the door.
Do not believe for a minute that the U.S. economy is on sound footing or any meaningful resurrection of the bull market will occur – think instead of slow, steady, grindstones turning.
It takes time to ruin a country.
Cinefoz has come over to the darkside?
Damn, now its time to go long!!
I dont know which Cinefoz is the real one, but I am having trouble believing the real one is here today. The real Cinefoz is more arrogant and obnoxious.
Austincompany,
About half the health care in the US is paid for by the government through the various mediXXXX programs.
Per capita, out government spends about as much on health care as the biggest spenders including places like Japan and even Sweden.
Yet when our government is done, we’re only half way there. The private system has to kick in just as much, just to keep our system functioning.
And even with all that: with more government spending per capita than most countries, and with about twice as much total spending (government + private) as anyplace else, the median quality of care is worse, and we do worse on just about every health measure including infant mortality, life expectancy, etc.
-btc
Come on…anyone who saw this coming, as many on this blog did, knew this was just one piece of the giant pie that is the attempt to save us from paying for the excesses of the recent past. Our politicians can’t have the dramatic increase in foreclosures, distressed mortgages, etc., no matter how relatively small the percentage, or how greedy/stupid the borrower, make such big headlines and do nothing about it. That is perceived as career suicide. Whether it is or not, and it may NOT be, will never be known, because I have yet to see the politician who will stand up and say “No help for troubled borrowers, banks or hedge funds”.
Ask anyone you know who runs AdSense on their site what their “cut” is. They can’t tell you because they have no idea.
Google has a wonderful black box they can tweak between what comes in from AdWords and what they pay out for AdSense. My guess is they will tweak it until all the AdSense morons scream.
Must be nice to make money in the dark like Google does.
That IS the real cinefoz. Cinefoz turned bearish in November. (I remember the post(s).) Then, for switching bullish in Feb or so, he took some ribbing on this board. But, he’s no permabull.
Let the “angry renter bailout” backlash scream at the top of its lungs.
The bailout is inevitable…and it’s necessary.
If the angry renters and resenters might take a breather from screaming, they might see the big picture.
What…a big picture?
For one moment, put aside your “entitlement” bullshit resentment. Entitlement is as entrenched as greed and corruption.
It happens…it’s happened..and it will happen.
Get over it.
Every day, “they” squander our tax dollars.
This housing market meltdown is worse than you are hearing. It’s crossed the country, spilling foreclosure on doorsteps once thought immune.
This is not just a “sub-prime” or ” greedy speculator” mess.
This “mess” has spilled over into main street unlike you can imagine…via the “trickle down effect.”
Just a glimpse of this train wreck unfolding before our eyes and poised to continue into 2010. Yesterday, a For Sale sign hit my neighbor’s front yard.
More than surprised, I caught the wife outdoors and shared my surprise.
What’s happened?
Why are you selling at this horrible time?
The husband has lost his job working as an airlines mechanic. Worse, they now have ZERO equity with the fallout of the market.
They’re attempting a short sale, as they’re now loading the moving truck and leaving the house and whatever fate awaits them.
This nice young couple with children have been good neighbors.
They are not holding their hand out for a freebie.
They’re not greedy real estate investors.
They’re walking away.
And yes, they tried and tried to work with their lender.
Ironically, their lender’s infinite wisdom: “When you miss 2-3 payments, call us.”
Huh???
I certainly could go on, but I’m tired and this discussion will not solve the problem.
What will happen will happen because a bailout must occur.
Only later may the “angry bailout resenters” understand the necessity. For those of you who’ve never received one entitlement or bailout or other indirect benefit from government intervention, congratulations.
Others could only be as lucky.
Tomorrow, I’ll say my goodbyes to neighbors of nine years. I’ll wish them well.
…victims of a fallen real estate meltdown….collateral damage.
…no “high-flying” borrowers here, just a middle-class working family with one income and not able to sell a house they’ve “rented” from their lender for nine years.
Speaking of angry renters, they’re damn angry too.
…they’re damn angry renters who resent the bailout not coming in time to save their job, home & children.
When you, your wife, your son, your daughter, your grandson/daughter & your neighbor loses a job resulting from this meltdown, shake your fist in the air in defiance.
…as the “vast majority of current mortgage owners are also happily chugging along and are in no need of bailout.”
Sleep well,
Mike
“Oh, the balloons! The balloons!”
http://www.secinfo.com/dsvrn.21N3.htm#1yza
PROSPECTUS SUPPLEMENT
$947,660,000 (APPROXIMATE)
J.P. MORGAN CHASE COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE SECURITIES CORP.
DEPOSITOR
COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE PASS-THROUGH CERTIFICATES, SERIES 2003-CIBC6
JPMORGAN CHASE BANK
CIBC INC.
ABN AMRO BANK N.V.
LASALLE BANK NATIONAL ASSOCIATION
MORTGAGE LOAN SELLERS
—————-
J.P. Morgan Chase Commercial Mortgage Securities Corp. is offering certain
classes of the Series 2003-CIBC6 Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates, which represent the beneficial ownership interests in a trust. The trust’s assets will primarily be 128 fixed rate mortgage loans secured by first liens on 143 commercial, multifamily and ***manufactured housing community properties*** and are generally the sole source of payments on the Series 2003-CIBC6 certificates.
Class A-1 ……… $217,100,000 % Fixed December 12, 2012 Aaa/AAA July 12, 2037
Class A-2 ……… $654,956,000 % Fixed(6) August 12, 2013 Aaa/AAA July 12, 2037
Class B ……….. $ 31,284,000 % Fixed(6) August 12, 2013 Aa2/AA July 12, 2037
Class C ……….. $ 32,588,000 % Fixed(6) August 12, 2013 A2/A July 12, 2037
Class D ……….. $ 11,732,000 % Fixed(6) August 12, 2013 A3/A- July 12, 2037
BORROWER MAY BE UNABLE TO REPAY REMAINING PRINCIPAL BALANCE ON MATURITY DATE OR
ANTICIPATED REPAYMENT DATE
Mortgage loans with substantial remaining principal balances at their stated maturity, ALSO KNOWN AS BALLOON LOANS, or with substantial remaining principal balances at their anticipated repayment date involve greater risk than fully amortizing loans. This is because the borrower may be unable to repay the loan at that time. In addition, fully amortizing mortgage loans which
may pay interest on an “actual/360” basis but have fixed monthly payments may, in effect, have a small payment due at maturity.
118 of the mortgage loans, representing APPROXIMATELY 93.9% OF THE AGGREGATE PRINCIPAL BALANCE OF THE POOL of mortgage loans as of the cut-off date, are expected to have substantial remaining principal balances as of their respective anticipated repayment dates or stated maturity dates.
This includes 9 mortgage loans, representing approximately 13.6% of the aggregate principal balance of the pool of mortgage loans as of the cut-off date, all of which pay interest-only for the first 6, 12 or 24 months of their respective terms and 1
mortgage loan, representing approximately 0.2% of the aggregate principal balance of the pool of mortgage loans as of the cut-off date, which pays interest only for its term. 90 of these mortgage loans, representing
approximately 57.6% of the aggregate principal balance of the pool of mortgage
loans as of the cut-off date, require balloon payments at their stated
maturity. 19 mortgage loans, representing approximately 24.4% of the aggregate
principal balance of the pool of mortgage loans as of the cut-off date, will
have substantial balances outstanding at their anticipated repayment dates. 103
of the mortgage loans, representing approximately 83.2% of the aggregate
principal balance of the pool of mortgage loans as of the cut-off date, mature
or have an anticipated repayment date in the year 2013.
Sadly, no — if this mattered, the mortgage-interest deduction would have died a well-deserved death long, long ago. Nope, like corporations, mortgaged homeowners are a favored political class who receive a lot more welfare than plain-old welfare recipients.
And I do not exaggerate. TANF (‘welfare’) cost US taxpayers less than $20 billion last year. The mortgage interest deduction cost between three and five times as much.
Nobody cares when the favored class has money.
Tomorrow, I’ll say my goodbyes to neighbors of nine years. I’ll wish them well.
…victims of a fallen real estate meltdown….collateral damage.
…no “high-flying” borrowers here, just a middle-class working family with one income and not able to sell a house they’ve “rented” from their lender for nine years.
——
How could they have zero equity if they bought their home 9 years ago? No markets have dropped below levels from 9 years ago.
The only thing that seems plausible is that they kept taking out all their equity as the price kept going up.
To be clear I think all the good risk borrowers who thought “I have to buy a house now or else I’ll never be able to buy a house ever again” or who thought “Location X is different and justifies these high valuations because ” are just as much to blame for these problems and are just as undeserving of a bailout as the “sub-prime” and “flipper” groups.
disclosure: I sold my house in 2005 and have been renting since (I moved to a new state, so it’s not as dramatic as it sounds). I’m hoping soon it will make sense to buy again
The reason is: A housing bust in Florida was the 1st pen to drop in what led to the “GREAT DEPPRESSION”. Dr.Ben is aware of this and will do what ever it takes to keep another Dust Bowl Depression Era from happening. Just go ask your great-grandfather “how much fun was it to stand in a soup-line”. As long as the $USD stinks to high heaven the foriegners can buy up the excess real-estate and help cushion the blow. What ur-a-pee’in wouldn’t want to come to Florida each winter to his new vacation property and sharpen up his Golf game?
For the record: this is an astroturf campaign. It has the appearance of some gritty grassroots uprising, but it’s actually a campaign coordinated by the FreedomWorks Foundation (previously known as Citizens for a Sound Economy). Their board of directors is headed by Steve Forbes and Dick Armey. It’s great, About Us includes this line “A lot of us rent, too! And we all hope to be able to own someday.” Yeah, Steve Forbes rents…
Now, they may have a point, but let’s not get confused about their motivations. They just don’t like taxes. Period.
Oh, come on, Mike! Spare me the melodramatics. I think it’s funny how–when everything is looking up–no one can abide an argument that the spoils should be shared more equally. But, on the downside, everyone knows just exactly (to the penny even!) how the pain should be spread around. A neighbor is a neighbor. They come and they go. You don’t know how they managed their finances.
Homedebtors all knew what they were doing when they signed up for their loans. All of these people were in love with the Option ARMs and Pick a Pay loans when things were good. Now these loans are “toxic” and its the governments fault! Hah. You knew what you were signing up for and if you didn’t you should have asked your mortgage professional (term used loosely) to clarify the program or to change it for you. Oh, but you didn’t, you took the nice low neg-am payment because you were going to make a killing on appreciation and then refi out of it in 2-3 years.
Now you need help and the government, actually the US taxpayers, are going to help you out of your big problem. Wrong.
Do what everyone else did a few years a go, file bankruptcy and/or have your home foreclosured on and then move into the land of renters for the next seven years until you can get an FHA loan with 3% down and start back over again.
Man up (or woman up) take your lumps and be done. Don’t make me and the rest of us pay for your mistakes.
Found this interactive map:
http://www.newyorkfed.org/mortgagemaps/
I’m not sure if BR has featured it on the blog