DJMT on the Big Picture & NAR

Its always interesting to see which media picks up what comments.  Yesterday’s critique of the NAR spin was grabbed by Dow Jones Market Watch :

MARKET TALK can be found using N/DJMT

11:56 (Dow Jones) Month after month, the National Association of Realtors puts as bright a spin on its home report no matter the numbers, and while it’s stopped predicting an outright bottom, it still comes close. This month, after reporting February pending sales were down 21.4% from a year ago, the industry group still predicted "essentially stable" sales, with an increase coming this summer. "You have to be a drug abuser to believe a 21.4% drop in the year-over-year index is a sign of stability," Barry Ritholtz writes at The Big Picture. (PJV)

My apologies for lumping in the Realtor’s group with drug abusers. In doing so, I meant no insult to the crackheads of the world…

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web:
  1. Ross commented on Apr 9

    MS,
    WHAT MIDDLE CLASS?

  2. Remy Piwowarski commented on Apr 9

    Sometimes harsh statements are allowed…

    What do you mean by government getting rid of middle class?

  3. Marcus Aurelius commented on Apr 9

    What do you mean by government getting rid of middle class?

    _____

    Do your blog a favor by looking out the window of your faux ivory tower every now and again.

    Sheesh.

  4. Renterfornow commented on Apr 9

    The nar and realtors have called the bottom since the peak.

    credibility in the sewer.

  5. Renterfornow commented on Apr 9

    New realtor pitch. Tell you how overpriced houses are and that incomes went up 20% last 5 years while houses appreciated 100%+ but are still pimping insane house listings at 2005 prices.

    kick around a realtor today. Call’em on their bluff.

  6. michael schumacher commented on Apr 9

    MA-

    No shit…….

    Anyone that puts a title longer than the meat of what they actually posted is a little… ah “precious” for me .

    Ciao
    MS

  7. Peter_BK commented on Apr 9

    “You have to be a drug abuser to believe a 21.4% drop in the year-over-year index is a sign of stability,”

    That is an insult to drug abusers everywhere.

  8. heather commented on Apr 9

    I’m sure the NAR can stop any time they want to.

  9. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on Apr 9

    My apologies for lumping in the Realtor’s group with drug abusers. In doing so, I meant no insult to the crackheads of the world…

    Barry, ROFLMAO! Tell it all brother, tell it all!

  10. portland Refugee commented on Apr 9

    LOL….Nice…..

    I wish I could post a video montage of local realtor behavior. It would be the comedy of the year!

  11. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on Apr 9

    MS, but it were that simple. I guess it’s easier to point fingers at administrations than to look at the institutionalized stealing by all levels of government. We are where we are because of fractional reserve banking and fiat money. This is going exactly as it always has with these systems in place. History proves me right although I take no comfort in this fact.

    I think the Bush Administration sucks the big one, but it didn’t start our slide, and to think otherwise is nonsense.

  12. Kp commented on Apr 9

    People who make money on transactions like realtors(and drug dealers) should always be expected to say that it is the right time to buy(or sell).

    Same reason brokers will use all sorts of psychology and “tools” and anything else shiny they can think to get you to trade…THEY MAKE MONEY FROM THE TRANSACTIONS!!!

  13. michael schumacher commented on Apr 9

    >>I think the Bush Administration sucks the big one, but it didn’t start our slide,>>

    It may have not started the slide however it pushed the gas pedal with a ferocity never seen before. How many examples can I give you?

    How much time do you have?

    They are part and parcel to the largest and most massive amount of fraud EVER fostered upon the populace. And that is discounting alot of other regimes who fall into the category of political PR machines.

    I agree they did not start it (that would be giving credit where certainly none is due) but i have never seen an administration go to such lengths as this one has to keep the basic financial system patched together through illegal loans, bailouts and outright fraud all in the name of patriotism and flag waving.

    They don’t say it but I the motto I see them subscribing to is:” Shorts hate America”

    And the baggage that comes with that attitude will only make all of us pay more for everything.

    Ciao
    MS

  14. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on Apr 9

    MS, I have all the time in the world for you. LOL! Seriously, bring it on.

  15. Al Czervic commented on Apr 9

    As Chris Rock once observed, “nobody sells drugs. drugs sell themselves. you’ll never hear a crack dealer say ‘How am I gonna get rid of all this crack?'”.

    Realtors must have felt like those crack dealers for a few years but their inventory is a lot more difficult to move these days.

  16. Marcus Aurelius commented on Apr 9

    Posted by: michael schumacher | Apr 9, 2008 11:00:30 AM

    True,

    SPECTRE:

    “bring it on” ain’t such a good phrase to use, nowadays. Sort of like “let them eat cake”.

  17. Pat G. commented on Apr 9

    Our government is the poster child for “spin”. But I’d have to give 2nd place to the NAR.

  18. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on Apr 9

    MA, I’m in the same boat as everyone else if the ship goes down. I have no illusions concerning my pecking order. My point was that it’s way too simple to blame any one individual for the problems we face although most folks like simple ideas.

    I at least know where we are as country, and how we got here. I take no comfort in the knowledge because of the pain I see coming. We are heading from denial to anger, so prepare yourselves as best you can for you and yours. I wish, no pray, that the news was better.

  19. Marcus Aurelius commented on Apr 9

    SPECTRE:

    This is the opportunity of a lifetime. Ignore the pain and capitalize on the level playing field. You’ll not have another such opportunity.

  20. michael schumacher commented on Apr 9

    spectre-

    no interest in bringing up the many things you are already aware of. The problem is that the “machine” has decided that one election is worth destroying many years worth of capital all in the name of growth at any cost.

    What I see happening this year is that JPM and to a lesser extent BofA will be the depository of all this crap debt (of course massively funded by you and me) so that we never really get a true sense of how irresponsible they were. BSC was delivered to JPM so that the books stayed shut…..that will play itself out many times over the next year or so. That C is not insolvent is just difficult to believe just based on leverage ratio’s….they were only slightly less levered than BSC.

    We will all suffer (long and short positions) because of yet another failed strategy.

    The biggest disappointment for me is that not one member of Congress has displayed any semblance of decency and compassion for the common man….yet when a TV camera is on they care enough to look concerned but can’t even ask basic questions that my dog would come up with let alone someone who actually sits on a committee chartered with being responsible.

    The financial industry (or at least the reporting of it) needs to grow a large pair and recognize the very serious damage being done. Some have….but not nearly enough.

    Ciao
    MS

  21. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on Apr 9

    MS, I can feel the frustration and pain in your post and feel the same way. I’m a strict Constitutionalist, so someone please tell me what group I can support? I look around and see corruption at every level.

    Maybe the real answer is that it’s ourselves that we have to blame for taking so much for granted and allowing others to run wild with no foresight to where they would take us or how the journey would end. We have an Administration that is part and parcel of a globalist cabal, and a CONgress that is nothing more than a den of thieves. Go to opensecrets.org and pull up almost any member of CONgress. They are all bought and paid for.

  22. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on Apr 9

    MA, I’m kicking arse with my plays, but if you have kids and grandchildren, it brings little comfort when our country is going into the shitter. Even if we are the last ones to circle the bowl, will it really matter?

  23. CrystalMerky commented on Apr 9

    OUR GOVERNMENT:

    – Bail out banks and Wall Street brokerages who nearly single handidly created the largest concerted financial fraud ever perpetrated on not only the American public, but other countries stupid enough to trust them with their money.

    – Facilitate massive brokerage buyouts to the tune of tens of billions of tax-payer backed money, of which is so secretive and “opaque” that nobody can figure out the real reason they would overstep their legal authority like this.

    – Bail out home builders to the tune of $15 BILLION and counting. Builders were one of the major reasons for the massive glut of housing inventory. Build and build and build no matter what warnings you receive. “Well, those condo projects have been planned for years so we had to build them.” No you didn’t you idiots!! I’m going to let everyone in on a little secret that they DO NOT want anyone to know – builders don’t just make money by selling the properties, they makes “marks” on every single piece of work done. They submit a bid top the bank for $500,000 for, say, electrical work, but that bid that they’re taking a draw on has been padded by 50%. Yes, that’s right they pocket the $250,000. THEY HAVE TO MOVE FORWARD WITH BUILDING THAT TOWER BECAUSE THEY ARE GETTING PADDED BID MONEY FROM THE BANK!!! Yeah, lets give ’em billions for their wonderful work, and backdate the tax perk to 2004 – one of the highest money making years in RE history. Good idea dipsh@!s.

    – Bush and his crony Republicans (I’m bitterly ashamed to admit that I’m a Rep., but I’m going Independant after witnessing all of this bullsh@!)

    – Bush and his Republican cronies force Dodd et al to strip out the bancruptcy provision allowing judges to reduce mortgage balances and interest rates in order to keep people in their homes. Why you ask? To stop the massive amount of foreclosure fire-sale priced homes from dragging all priced down into OBLIVION!! Why in God’s name should banks, brokerages, and builders (the main sources of this ridiculous crime) be bailed out and the home owners get only get sh@! on?? Why??

    – Bush and his Republican cronies embarked on a concerted effort to block legislation being enacted in 49 states aimed at curbing preditory lending practices. Now why on Earth would anyone in their right mind block such a thing? Do you see a disturbing pattern developing yet?

    I could keep listing things all day long, but it merely makes me too sick to my stomach to keep going.

    I am so incredibly disappointed with what this country has come to. I literally can not feel proud of this country anymore. This government has managed to rip off and piss off every single country in the world. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again….

    WE ARE NOT INVINCIBLE. WE DO NOT HAVE UNLIMITED MONEY TO SPEND. WE ARE NOT IMMUNE FROM PISSED OFF COUNTIRES DECIDING TO BAND TOGETHER TO KICK OUR BULLY ASSES ( news of nuclear defenses sights being placed in Europe right now a coincidence?). WE DO NOT HAVE UNLIMITED BORROWING POWER EITHER, AND BABY WE’RE NEARLY THE END OF EVERYONE’S PATIENCE FROM WHOM WE BORROWED.

    WAKE UP AMERICA!! EVERYONE GET OUT OF YOUR LAZYBOYS AND PLEASE HELP STOP THIS!!

  24. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on Apr 9

    This is OT, but I can’t believe CNBC is spinning the C 12 Billion Dollar sale of paper back to PE Firms as a good thing. I see why the PE Firms like the deal, but it doesn’t say much for C because this amounts to a forced liquidation in my book. Might they have a ratio problem, and why couldn’t it be moved through the various FED Acronym Vehicles? It’s a 1.2 Billion Dollar haircut for C at 90 cents on the dollar, if they are able to get the 90 cents.

  25. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on Apr 9

    Bush and his Republican cronies force Dodd et al to strip out the bancruptcy provision allowing judges to reduce mortgage balances and interest rates in order to keep people in their homes. Why you ask? To stop the massive amount of foreclosure fire-sale priced homes from dragging all priced down into OBLIVION!! Why in God’s name should banks, brokerages, and builders (the main sources of this ridiculous crime) be bailed out and the home owners get only get sh@! on?? Why??

    CM, this is Unconstitutional, and contractual law goes to the heart of our system. I’m glad the black robed tyrants can’t have a power they were never intended to have. END RANT!

  26. CrystalMerky commented on Apr 9

    Spectre,

    What the hell are you talking about Spectre? So, what the Fed and Treasury are doing IS constitutional?

    Who the hell else is going to force government to do the right thing? Congress? Senate? We have judges for a reason spanky.

    Either come up with better ideas or shut your freaking cakehole genius.

    DOWN WITH THE BLACK ROBED TYRANTS!!!

  27. CrystalMerky commented on Apr 9

    Anybody hear me know??

    Man-o-man, the Fed borrowing money from themselves now. Issuing debt under its own name so it can borrow from itself. I think I’m going to borrower 100 billion from myself today. Don’t worry, I’ll pay me back. What the FU@! is going on in this country???!!! Hey Spectre – is this Constitutional enough for you?

    “WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve is considering contingency plans for expanding its lending power in the event its recent steps to unfreeze credit markets fail.

    Among the options: Having the Treasury borrow more money than it needs to fund the government and leave the proceeds on deposit at the Fed; issuing debt under the Fed’s name rather than the Treasury’s; and asking Congress for immediate authority for the Fed to pay interest on commercial-bank reserves instead of waiting until a previously enacted law permits it in 2011.”

  28. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on Apr 9

    CM, I have mentioned repeatidly that those you have mentioned are using patently Unconstitutional powers which their Charter does not grant them, but to infer that two wrongs make a right, is absurd. You must of missed those posts although others will testify, may as well stay with the court theme, that I have mentioned it several times. Kiss my arse regarding your piehole comment moron!

  29. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on Apr 9

    CM, that was posted yesterday by me. You are a day late and a dollar short with your posting. Try and stay up to speed with the adults, and quit screaming with your posts. Yelling doesn’t make your points anymore worthy of consideration. Good and sound reasoning would be more welcome Republican. LOL!

  30. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on Apr 9

    As to the question of Dodd, he’s bought and paid for by the Finance industry per opensecrets.org. To bring him up as a model of virtue is ludicrous!

  31. CrystalMerky commented on Apr 9

    HA HA HA HA!!! NOTICE I’M YELLING AND LAUGHING OUTLOUD DUMB FU#@!.

    Nobody is responding to you but you just keep posting and posting. Oh, I should have said that….I’m going to go back and post again. Keep going o great mind of our time.

    Your penis size in millimeters is directly commensurate the size of your IQ – 5

  32. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on Apr 9

    CM, rather than turning your childlike rants into a food fight, I will take the high road and ignore you from henceforth. I have no time for people with IQs that match their young age. Good luck.

  33. Francois commented on Apr 9

    “Bush and his Republican cronies force Dodd et al to strip out the bancruptcy provision allowing judges to reduce mortgage balances and interest rates in order to keep people in their homes. Why you ask? To stop the massive amount of foreclosure fire-sale priced homes from dragging all priced down into OBLIVION!! Why in God’s name should banks, brokerages, and builders (the main sources of this ridiculous crime) be bailed out and the home owners get only get sh@! on?? Why??

    CM, this is Unconstitutional, and contractual law goes to the heart of our system. I’m glad the black robed tyrants can’t have a power they were never intended to have.”

    HUH?? Unconstitutional? “Tu quoque fili?”

    Then, explain why it is standard practice in business mortgage bankruptcy court proceedings to have judges examine and at times “encourage” (cough cough!) the parties to “adjust” the amount due?

    You mean to tell us that it is specifically unconstitutional for individuals but not so for corporations?

    Urban Legends die hard.

  34. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on Apr 9

    Then, explain why it is standard practice in business mortgage bankruptcy court proceedings to have judges examine and at times “encourage” (cough cough!) the parties to “adjust” the amount due?

    You mean to tell us that it is specifically unconstitutional for individuals but not so for corporations?

    Urban Legends die hard.

    Posted by: Francois | Apr 9, 2008 3:34:57 PM

    I don’t know anything concerning cough…cough, but I do know judges currently don’t have this power nor do I want them to. You can certainly disagree, but it’s Unconstitutional and contractual law is a bedrock of our system. If the homeowner is filing bankruptcy, as you mentioned for business, then that’s a different story, but don’t confuse one circumstance with another. They are talking about changing mortgages without the homeowner having to face bankruptcy for their own bad decisions.

  35. Francois commented on Apr 9

    MS, Spectre et al,

    On the go-vermin role in all that mess.

    “The biggest disappointment for me is that not one member of Congress has displayed any semblance of decency and compassion for the common man…”

    “I’m a strict Constitutionalist, so someone please tell me what group I can support? I look around and see corruption at every level.”

    At the risk of sounding like a broken record, ask yourselves a very simple question: “Who pays the bills for election campaigns?”

    Hint: it ain’t us a.k.a. “The People” at large, because we have this dangerously dimwitted delusion that we should NOT have to pay for “that”. Thus, “others” are doing it for us. Obviously, they are reaping the rewards of what they sow.

    We don’t, and won’t, until we accept to pay the bills.

    Simple as that.
    +++++++++++++++
    P.S. At the same time, we could make sure that no one else has the right to pay said bills, but that is another looooong and painful discussion I’d rather avoid today.

  36. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on Apr 9

    On the go-vermin role in all that mess.

    “The biggest disappointment for me is that not one member of Congress has displayed any semblance of decency and compassion for the common man…”

    I disagree as the CONgress has alreay made provisions for allowing a homeowner to walk on taxes regarding a short sale, and I think it’s a good idea. I will never agree with your philosophy if it promotes more moral hazard than is already on display. We are each responsible for our own actions. Those that played the housing lotto now must pay the piper for their wrong way bet. Tough shit to them and welcome to the real world. Their in the money call on their no money down lotto homes evaporated when housing started going south. Live and learn.

  37. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on Apr 9

    Francois, One other thing I would do is roll back the new bankruptcy laws because the bankers saw what was coming, and wanted to make sure that they would have debt slaves who would never get a second chance. I believe that we all make mistakes, and everyone who must file for bankruptcy deserve a fresh start after learning a valuable lesson.

  38. sloppy commented on Apr 10

    Barry,

    So how would you define ‘stability’? A return to the bubble year unit sales levels?

    The monthly run rate has been approx. level for the last three months, that is an interesting trend that should be reported.

    Yes, every one of those months was 20-25% below their y-o-y comparison – that’s not interesting, that’s expected.

Read this next.

Posted Under