My latest Real Money column is up, looking at what to expect from the latest home sales data: Existing Home Sales Will Rise: Be Cautious With Builders.
It builds on some of the prior work we have done on the Seasonality of home sales.
Here’s an excerpt:
"Not surprisingly, it turns out January is the slowest month of the year when it comes to home sales. That intuitively makes sense, as most people are otherwise engaged in December – they are busy with Holidays and vacations. Many fewer people are shopping for homes then, so we get fewer contracts signed in January.
Once we get past January, the lowest sales month of the year, its pretty much all good for existing home sales through June. A pull back in July, a bounce back up in August, and that’s the best first part of the year.
Why? Well, consider how many families want to minimize the disruption to their kid’s education during a move. It seems most families with school-age children want to be in their new homes before the new school year starts in September. This makes sense in terms of both the overall pattern of sales, and the flurry of closings in August. The big fall off in September reflects the start of the school year; With so few buyers looking in December, its no surprise that January is the weakest month for sales."
Its on the subscription only site, but I will try to get it moved to the free TheStreet.com section tomorrow . . .
Existing Home Sales Will Rise: Be Cautious With Builders
RealMoney.com, 4/22/2008 9:09 AM EDT