The latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey of economists is out (in the free section of the WSJ). Some of the survey respondents’ answers might surprise you:
As the WSJ chart shows, more often than not, economists as a group have underestimated inflation.
19% of economists said inflation poses the biggest risk to the
42% said inflation poses a moderate risk
31% said it was a
8% said it poses no risk at all.
Dismal? Hardly. In addition to their chipper view of inflation, as a group, Economists consistently overestimated GDP.
A similar pollyannaish bias: Most of the group underestimated Unemployment, and at the same over-estimated NFP job creation.
Economists are divided on whether commodity prices are at a peak: 51% said “yes,” 49% said “no.”
Here are the probability forecasts for "A Recession will occur over the next 12 months:"
U.S. Economy Hasn’t Hit Bottom, Survey Says
WSJ, April 10, 2008