Martin Feldstein, an economics professor at Harvard University and president of the National Bureau of Economic Research, talks with about U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product, the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy and potential legislation to help homeowners avoid foreclosures.
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Source:
Feldstein Says U.S. Economic Indicators `Pointing Down’
Bloomberg, May 29 2008
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a2M56v3ltLgE
This is ready-for-cheap-wine sour grapes from Feldstein, whom The Decider decided wasn’t good enough to be Fed Chairman and now wants to ruin America’s patriotic tax cut economy.
Why doesn’t this bearish, eggheaded Humpty- Dumpty fall down off the wall and roll along to the media’s version of skid row with the other disgruntled, dis-loyal, slave-to-their-editor, hacks that the Commander-in-Chief tried to teach… tried to nurture, but ended up as failures: Scott McClellan, Admiral Fallon, Richard Clarke, Stephen R. Kappes, John E. McLaughlin, Paul O’Neill etc… etc…?
So many losers; one great MBA CEO-of-the-land. A tall walkin’, straight talkin’, first-shootin’-later-questionin’, torture-memo-distributin’ Leader of the Free World.
WSJ: What current financial factors would propel an upward market move?
Mr. Biggs: If the Federal Reserve has made its last rate cut, that’s bullish. After that has happened in the past, the market on average was up 5% after three months and 12% after six months. The price to be paid for this — it saved the U.S. banking system from subprime peccadilloes — is more inflation. But it won’t be catastrophic, **3% to 5% in core inflation**.
notice that he is using core inflation…..because he knows that its possible real inflation in food and energy maybe running north of 6%.
all i can say is one more person with crystal ball….who is taking a brave bet….and he will retire after this bet fails…
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One Bold Analyst’s Latest View: Worst Is Over for Economy, Stocks
LARRY LIGHT
WSJ, May 31, 2008
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121218408121933879.html
Mr. Real
Consider the possibility that the jump in orders is the order compression that occurs at the beginning of a steep upward slope in inflation, buy now because it will be only more expensive tomorrow.
I see Viet Nam’s inflation is over 22%. If they would only use core it would probably be 3% and their market wouldn’t be in the tank.
Sounds like some schmuck from CNBC is trying to make a point on your blog.
I’m not even in N.A. and I can smell it.
It is very unlikely that the US goes from “the worst crisis since the great depression” to “not even entering a recession”.
Don’t believe the hype…it’s all in the charts.
Nah, its just a jackass troll. He’s been hanging around here for a few months on assignment.
I enjoy deleting his posts, and banning his IP address.
Its really kind of sad, as he has nothing productive to do with his time . . .
The way Feldstein interprets the economic indicators appeals to me. He is not clinging to any specific indicator as it can fluctuate around it’s trend for a reason or other. He just looks at what is happening with the majority of indicators. He also emphasizes the long term trends eg. YoY trends in favor of MoM trends. Shifting to a recession is a slow process and there’s no much sense in stock market’s overreacting to news of individual indicators.
Martin wants the feds to fund mortgages for home owners in danger of default, to put a floor on home resale values and prop up the market.
Isn’t he the same Martin who, not long ago, wanted to privatize Social Security? You know, begin to move the Feds out of the retirement insurance business and turn some of the funds over to Wall Street?
Some of these guys are like a windsock.
While we may not be in an official recession, I’m officially worried about the NBER for three reasons:
1. Feldstein believes the core CPI is a meaningful statistic.
2. Feldstein believes that propping up house prices at artificially high prices would be good for the housing market. Sure, just keep the debt slaves paying their mortgages until years later when inflation catches up and other will start buying. In order for the market to recover, prices need to move to a sustainable level.
3. Feldstein seems to believe that rate cuts have a positive effect on mortgage rates. Uh, don’t think so.
And what’s with the interviewer? She was just dying for Feldstein to say something positive about the economy. Why can’t TV just report, rather than trying to sway it?
“Why can’t TV just report, rather than trying to sway it?”
Their bosses are big corporations that have no interest whatsoever in rocking the boat.
Plus, it’s election season. I would wager a pile of C-bills against 3 n’gwees that more than a few of their execs political inclination have little to do with, hmmm, how shall I say that…the challenger party.