Another appearance on Kudlow & Co. tonite, from 7:00 to 7:30pm (ish).
Also on tonite: David Malpass, Bear Stearns chief economist, Jimmy Pethokoukis, senior writer at U.S. News & World Report, Andy Busch, global FX strategist at BMO Capital Markets, Jim Awad, chairman of WP Stewart Asset Management, and Don Luskin, chief investment officer, Trend Macro.
Note that Jimmy Pethokoukis and I have a bet as to whether or not there is a recession or not.
UPDATE: May 14, 2008 11:47pm
Considering it was 4 on 1, I thought I held up pretty well.
Click for video
In comments, several people were critical of the appearance. While I
appreciate the perspective, its very difficult to explain what live TV
is like (or in this case, Live to tape).
You have 15 seconds to make a point. What you really need is 15
minutes to discuss any of these items in appropriate detail. Instead,
its a series of feints and jabs, parries and thrusts. My goal is to
intelligently discuss these issues, focus on reality, while presenting
my firm in the best possible light.
For those of you who have never done TV, its a matter of choosing your battles. And, its much harder than it looks.
Almost every time I am on, I have a “Terminator moment” — 4 good
answers pop into the frontal cortex (POSSIBLE RESPONSE: YES/NO; OR
WHAT?; GO AWAY; PLEASE COME BACK LATER; FUCK YOU, ASSHOLE),
This being tv, I am forced to go with the economic equivalent of “F*ckYou a**hole.” The pithy response that makes the point, not the longer soap box answer I would rather make.
I was out all day…but saw that, as predicted, as soon as QQQQ volume picked up in any way, down she went. It printed a nasty shooting star candle. Volume, though shy of the 100 day MA for the 38th out of 39 days of this new bull market, picked up about 70% over the last few days. 10 day total put/call is 89, the range where bad things happen for longs…it’s been lower only once in the last year.
You & Malpass? At the same time?
That should be interesting – maybe I’ll watch.
Heard you on Bloomberg this a.m.
COMPLETELY off topic, but my work started blocking http://www.ritholtz.com. WTF?
I can see from Barry’s time on Kudlow that no one sees anything bad coming.
That’s good for bears, bad for bulls.
And tell Kudlow that most people in their retirement funds CAN’T exclude the financials!
30% of S&P is the financials. That’s 1/3 bad against 2/3 good. But that bad 1/3 wipes out all good!
I’ll be Rev Joykill for ya
60Bil down to 55Bil trade deficit
BooYa; what a positive
then it comes out the whole flood just dropped both sides; BooYa
YOU CAN’T BOOYA till its ZERO TRADE DEFICIT; thats positive; then we can start on reducing the ACCUMULATIVE #######’s
America is Rome in the nuclear age … with a nuclear half life … empires survive; just maybe not yours
What did Luskin say…when Barry’s Fusion IQ gets to 100, short it? That was a nasty comment. Barry should rip him a new one.
Barry,
Geez, talk about stacking the guests against you.
Question: You said occasionally you short, but i didnt get the sense that you short often or a lot of time. Why?
Given the recent activity by the government, fed etc i have my own feelings but i was curious as to why you dont seem to short all that often….
Just saw you on Kudlow. Welcome to the club of whores. Barry, you can’t have your cake and eat it too! You let LK smack you down. Your vision is too valuable not to swing out and risk your relationship with LK.
Tell it like it is (as you always do) on CNBC or tell them to take a hike.
Do you “NEED” them?
NO!
Your vision is superior to LK and CNBC.
Go for it!
Cheers,
Peter
Some guys are really funny.
you notice all the ones he is angry at? Anyone who is currently cautious or bearish. Maybe we dont want to read your posts? Ever thought of that? Open up your own blog or website. Cant be that difficult for you since you are a computer genious.
Now, back to topic, next to Luskin? thats painful
wanna nother fact Monte!
Our county courthouse needs a new elevator. This morning announced our property taxes are going up just to keep up with all kinds of stuff. Whoda guessed.
Now for the rest of the story. The county CD’s are dropping from 4.49% interest to 3.2 and 2.75%.
That is your fault out there in Wall Street LaLaLand. We will take you down with us. In a bayou accent GUARANTEED.
OMG – I never watch Kudlow, have read the comments on here about him. But I tuned in tonight.
The “reality” that those guys see in the #s is so incredibly removed from what is going on in the real world right now. My mind is just boggled.
If this mentality is why stocks are going up in the face of bad news then I am going to have to start playing around with some shorts again. It is ugly out there. In the REAL world.
Malpass did a lunch at Bear’s HQ about two months before Bear blew chunks. His thesis then was that everything was fine. In fact, someone asked him about the TED spread, why had it spiked and remained elevated if everything was fine. His answer almost made me fall outta my seat. He said the TED spread had blown out because of the timing mismatch between London and New York.
I want to issue a ‘Code Red’ on Don Luskin. He’s got to be the biggest asshole on Kudlow I’ve seen by far.
I just found this link for the first time.
http://archives.cnn.com/2001/BUSINESS/08/02/openfund/
I didn’t realize Mr. Luskin already had broke one company before.
So when the market’s get tough Don goes bankrupt because he’s always all in. That makes sense the way he talks.
If I would have been Barry I would have reminded Mr Luskin of his history but that wouldn’t be good for my business either, still would be funny though.
Regarding the bet with Jimmy P. about whether we’re in recession. Today’s CPI report illustrates the problem — you could be right in real life, but lose the bet because of fudged statistics.
If the GDP deflator weren’t being crudely suppressed in the same way as the CPI is, we would ALREADY have had a negative growth quarter, with another one on the way.
The same issue would have arisen with betting on a drop in Soviet grain production. You might have looked out your window and seen the blasted wheat stubble on the failing collective farms. You might have counted the queue of ships in port, waiting to discharge their mountains of imported grain. But according to official statistics, grain production carried on rising in line with the five-year plan. It had to — otherwise, heads would roll. After the Soviet Union went down, the CIA realized that Soviet GDP had been about half of what U.S. analysts had estimated.
Never bet against the USSA, comrade. The Shoppers’ Paradise has plenty more aces up its official sleeve. Put me in charge of the BLS, and I care not about the bread lines!
God Barry!!! I am a huge fan and have been for years but you infuriate me sometimes when you are on that show and never more so than tonight.
You have all the information & data on your side and yet you let them attack you as if you are the one who is out of touch.
Fed measures not seen since the GD, ridiculously doctored gov’t stats, a stock market still below the high 7 years ago and the dollar 35% lower, all time record foreclosures, every big bank needing to raise capital and moving larger and larger portions of their balance sheet to level 3, ETC ETC ETC!!!
Why don’t you defend yourself or at least counter their ridiculous statements.
Ugh!!! You really should never come off looking as bad as you did tonight…you have all the facts…”release Hell” Barry!
Sammy,
You are right he has all the facts. But if you had up his time he gets to speak, it can not be more than 2 minutes. Really hard to respond, when you are forced into sound bites. I like the show and watch it reguarly, but just dont understand why they dont have on only 2 guys and give them some real time. And even though i dont mind Kudlow, he is ridiculous when it comes to letting panalists with opposing views getting anymore time than 20 seconds to respond.
Come on Kud, lay off the 4 minutes lead in’s and give these people time to talk facts.
I have to agree that BR was weak against Kudlow tonight. When you get a platform like LK, use it. And put that prick LK in his place.
Barry, You did well considering it felt like you were roped into coming onto the show and getting ambushed. Must of felt like a sucker punch.
Don Luskin is so far from a gentleman I am really not sure how CNBC and Kudlow continue to allow Luskin and Bowyer to make personal attacks and act in the narcissitic ego driven manner they do.
I do see how Kudlow does arrive at the thinking that you say one thing on his air and then soften and become bullish on his show. I do think this is true. I think you need to be who you want to be and not someone in the middle. Your blog leans pretty bearish, your posts do and your followers are for the most part distrusting of the gov’t and negative on equities (include me). On Kudlow you are too squishy..
-tongue somewhat in cheek-
Without dumb permabull money, how would smart money make money?
Zero…sum…game.
LarryKudlow
speechwriter
BSC strategist
party boy
pundit.
Give Barry a break, LK is paid to spew forth his propaganda. LK is not interested in facts or a good debate, just spin and BS.
The show is totally fixed for this reason.
Now drink the koolaid and be a good boy.
It was obviously a set-up. They were laying for Barry and they took him to the woodshed. Barry may have been slightly embarrassed or ashamed, and he was probably surprised by the directness of the attacks, so he was probably reluctant to strike back, perhaps feeling he had to make amends to them in some fashion.
Further, IMO, this is the worst time to be attacked for being bearish. Let’s face it, most of what they said was true, transports going through the roof, the market moving steadily higher for nearly eight weeks since Bear day, Fed rate cuts, TAF loans, fiscal stimulus going out the door, and credit spreads, etc., HAVE improved. There ARE a lot of indicators supporting the bull case right now, and pulling out the old saws about foreclosures, and “phony” data, etc, isn’t going to cut the mustard with any bulls in the face of these indicators, that’s old news now. Without some data on worsening conditions or validation in the markets bears are just lone wolves howling at the moon at the moment.
Barry took his thumpin’ like a man, and lives to fight another day. And the winner of their debate has yet to be determined…
Funny for all their bullishness, I am long coal, euro small emerging co’s, alt energy, companies that make mining equipment, LUK,
and Russia. Not exactly an everything is coming up roses in the USA approach. Rather defensive. The only thing that is an anomaly is that the IBD mutual fund index crossed up the 200 day moving average. This is bullish. But I wish I could tell you for how long. I don’t have a lot of faith in a long term bull rather at most a multi month rally. The most likely scenario is a hard break in the price of oil triggering a period of euphoric buying until it stops going down, then the reality of real costs / and a hindered economy hits again.
.
Wow, does Kudlow really think ambushing his guests and throwing them under the bus is good TV? In my mind, the episode proved something I had long suspected….that Don Luskin is a giant talking penis with ears.
There’s always Fox.
Kudlow’s show is hopelessly flawed, as the host freely admits that, at least while his cronies are running the government, he wants to always be optimistic.
A better show would be a no holds barred debate every night between a bull and a bear…put it on tape delay and bleep out the curses.
First up…Barry vs. Luskin then how about:
Dennis Kneale vs. David Tice
Gary Schilling vs. Jerry Bowyer
Robert Shiller vs. head of NAR
Fleck vs. Wesbury
I’ve stop watching Tv to many lies. I own a pawnshop and I have bought more gold ytd this year then I did all of last year.Things are getting worse in Virginia Beach area . I hear on the pawn forum it’s like that for everyone. Cheers ,
The tongue-lashing by the bulls (on K&C) may be a contrary indicator.
The S&P will retest 1300 within the next few months.
I was really offended by Kudlow’s allowing and participating in the attacks on Barry’s professional competency — to the point of reconsidering tuning the show in regularly.
Interesting to see so many comments about BR being wishy-washy RE bullish vs. bearish. We need to separate what BR thinks the market should be doing on the one hand, and what BR thinks are good ways to make big bucks on the other hand. This blog makes it clear that BR thinks the market should be plunging (let’s not quibble; it’s obvious). But he’s felt that a great way to make money for the past several years has been to own certain hardcore industrials like Honeywell, IBM, etc. That’s cool. I just wish he’d throw some of the money making ideas our way now and then with a rundown of his rationale, rather than flood the blog with bearish graphs, only to tell us that he just sold Honeywell for a huge profit. (But like he says — His blog. His rules.)
~~~
BR: Buy Oil (2003)
Buy Gold (2004)
Buy Asia (2005)
Buy Mosaic (MOS) (2006)
Sell Bear Stearns (BSC) (2007)
Short Fannie Mae; (FNM) (2008)
I don’t know, I thought those were pretty good moneymakers
Barrys problem is that the economy is in decent shape and the 6 month slowdown is over. One last big surge in economic growth before the wheels fall off for good in 2010-11. 2009 will be a banner year for the economy.
Very similiar to 1967-69.
Come back in 3 years. By then, fun fun times will be ensuing.
Good spot. I virtually never watch Kudlow’s fairy tale hour, but, really, does Larry ever shut-up. He really is irritatingly in love with the sound of his own voice.
BR, I think you held up well. But Larry Kudlow? sheesh.
The guy removes public comments to his blog last fall when his supporters deserted; seems the credit crunch news validated the argument of the bears.
But I’d really be curious to see Larry’s response if you cross-examined him on his American Peso crapola.
In February Larry called for “Shock & Awe” Fed rate cuts. You blogged “Isn’t anyone worried about the dollar?” Larry gets his rate cuts, the dollar gets boot-stomped, and now Larry wakes up and says “King dollar!!!!” and “Doesn’t anyone care about the American Peso???” Now on tonight’s show he blames you for the dollar’s troubles.
I guess the Kudlow show is CNBC using the ‘carrot and stick’ strategy… carrots in the form of the Million Dollar Portfolio challenge, and sticks in the form of Kudlow crapola to smack folks upside the head with utter trainwreck garbage.
And Luskin ripping on FusionIQ? Guess he’s not aware of the recent calls on SoHu and CSIQ recently.
Before the Fed started cuttting rates last August, Mr. Kudlow said, I am not misquoting here, that any cuts would strengthen the dollar, as they would help economic growth. He has no credibility…not even woth discussing him except that Barry appears on his show.
“old saws about foreclosures, and “phony” data, etc, isn’t going to cut the mustard with any bulls in the face of these indicators, that’s old news now.”
Foreclosures keep rising and phony data that is growing more phony by the month should hardly be considered “old saws”. They are facts that when reality hits people will question why these issues were not taken more seriously.
All these bulls were saying there was no problem at DOW 14k and that the bears were dead wrong. Now, 7 months later after the bears were proven completely correct and the Fed has exhausted half their balance sheet and cut rates over 3%, the bulls continue to spout that they were in some way correct.
I will stick with my own convictions and with those of the people who saw this coming. Those are the people who have been correct. Not those arrogant, ego driven monkeys on Kudlow.
Steve Barry,
David Tice Prudent Bear Fund, 1.41% 5 year annualized return. Why is this guy so smart?
Fleck? Looks good at times, wouldn’t want him to run my money over time.
Wow Barry. You’re a bigger man than me. I would have had to tear into Luskin after his IQ comment. This is coming from a man whose only venture into running money resulted in running his fund into the ground. OpenFund, as he called it, finished the two year period from 2000-2001 with a -75% total return. Talk about IQ! It must have taken some serious brain power to eliminate a funds entire asset base in less than 24 months. It’s amazing this guy can even get a job in this industry….
Way to bite your tongue when he lashed out at you and thanks for always veering from the crowd and providing an interesting and intelligent outlook.
Kudlow is a fine propagandist. He’d be up there with some of the greats if only he had enough brains so that the “I don’t understand what this guy is saying” remarks wouldn’t be his only option for a response. His dull mind is directly responsible for the crude presentation of material on the show–which is nevertheless effective in an entirely different way, for a particular audience.
In any case I feel lucky that we still live in a free country–that’s why Kudlow is merely applying himself to worsening the welfare of his fellow citizens rather than consolidating the already fixed power of some totalitarian regime. I mean, there is a difference, right?
And by the way Barry, seeing what sort of people they are, up against your terrific performance under fire, it is obvious why he and Luskin were so sour and pissed off!
Eric makes a fantastic point in that it would be nice if Barry brought more balance here to the blog.
You must be a saint, Barry. I’ve would have been banned by the FCC.
I never watch the show, but did last night.
Buncha guys in a bar talking shop.
Nothing more, nothing less.
For entertainment, I’d rather watch Survivorman.
Barry, you should put up your own vlogs with other folks so you can talk more seriously.
KK
“David Tice Prudent Bear Fund, 1.41% 5 year annualized return. Why is this guy so smart?”
Who said he is smart? He would be a great debater though. A guy that is upposed to be the smartest is Bill Miller…NEGATIVE 25% 1 year annualized return…this from a value fund…NEGATIVE 1.37% 3 year annualized return. At least Ticve stays to his charter being a bear fund manager. What the hell is Miller doing? This should be the subject of a book.
Barry, you were sand bagged again by Larry by his stacking of the deck. A very good friend of mine, a well known mm, economist, has refused to go on his show simply because of his clownish behavior. Better to stay off and appear on Bloomberg where the atmosphere is more “professional”. CNBC has become Kudlow light in my humble opinion.
If you don’t count strike-outs, I’m a .400 hitter !!!!
—
Great line, Barry.
Perfect put-down.
Kudlow is unwatchable. He actually discourages rational discourse, and promotes acrimony between guests.
Four against one is about what he needs to hold his own.
Thanks for posting the video here, I needed a laugh this morning.
Hang in there Barry. Even though Kudlow made sure that you were given virtually no opportunity to make your points, you are on the right side of the facts and the trade. It infuriates the viewer who is interested in real, intelligent discussion, so I can imagine how it makes you feel. Since it’s Kudlow’s show, he can stack the deck any way he wants, but drives away viewers like me who seek honest exchange about the markets (I avoid the show for the most part unless you are appearing as it just ends up making me angry.
I’ve never seen anyone on TV act as stupid at Kudlow did last night. He interrupts rational comments with irrational blabber. I love how he was saying flat out that your call for a slowdown in ’07 and ’08 was wrong. Did that not happen? Is he living in a different country than we are? Absurd.
Barry, your blog continues to enlighten and I consider it a useful piece of my daily info matrix. And I can’t fault you for taking advantage of Kudlow invites; you see them as an opportunity (or mental composure challenge), I suppose. But I don’t learn anything watching this “discussion”; and it’s not even close to good TV unless I’m having a few.
I gather Larry may be your friend so perhaps you guys have some honest laughs after the red light goes off and your host cuts the insufferable self-parody act. Compared to the recent CNBC short-selling segments you posted links to this was just a noisy farce.
Best,
A
It was clear that LK sandbagged Barry. I regularly watch the show and was surprised by the way LK came out swinging at Barry from the opening line. That set the tone for the others to go after Barry, which they eagerly did.
It would have been more entertaining and informative if LK would have waited for Barry to respnd to his questions. I still don’t understand why LK has so many guests on his show at the same time.
Luskin’s IQ comment were strictly bush league. Anyone aware of his Open Fund ‘success’ is still wondering why he is on TV or in print or has any credibility left.
Barry – I applaud you for being able to keep your cool. Very professional. Despite being talked over, ridiculed, and insulted, your performance was admirable.
Saw you in the “Lion’s Den” last night too. Those guys were absolutely apoplectic. I think that by merely showing up, you touched a nerve. And that tells me that the confidence of the bulls here is fragile. The idea that proffesional economists like Kudlow, Pethokoukis, and Luskin rejoice over two quarters of 0.6% GDP growth is almost comical.
It seems to me, that the economist and pundits think it will be short and shalow. The buinessmen think it will be long and deep. Who will be right? I think Buffet is right.
Hi Barry, glad I wasn’t a guest on the program. If you’re interested I will sponsor a mixed martial art event between you and Kudlow. What was it like when the cameras were off? He was clearly interested in payback/demeaning you.
barry knew what he was getting into however in the grand scheme to garner clients and readership he sheds his moral compass to go on TV with a bunch of nutcases so that he can get a few more hits on the site.
That’s wrong and he sure as hell knows it.
Ciao
MS
You got next to zero respect on that spot. I would send a polite hand written note to Larry saying “Thanks for the appearance on your show, but please feel free to engage other pundits to serve as a counterpoint to your panel in the future. Kindest Regards.”
Your reputation is a scarce commodity that is diffuclt to accumulate, but easy to dispose of. Larry isn’t helping you any, as far as I can see. JMHO….
Barry (and any other rational Kudlow guest),
I know it’s a soundbite show and any mildly-bearish-or-worse guests get next to no time, but… The bulls always argue the market is a discounting mechanism looking past this recession. For once, Barry, I would like a guest to bring up the clarity of that discounting mechanism in mid 2007 when Prince was still a-dancing. It was wrong then, it could be wrong again.
-A
You did a great job! If it isn’t damaging your psyche then keep up your appearances no matter the opposition. For some reason the majority of people have stopped communicating with each other and if they hear an opposing view they become damaged somehow. People have gotten into the habit of only listening to those who confirm their own beliefs whether they are political(my own mother still believes that Saddam Hussein blew up the WTC and that all of this is Jimmy Carter’s fault!) religious or apparently whether you are bearish or bullish. Keep up your great work and your sense of humor!
Wow! I just ran spell check and it said there were no errors, reading your blog for the last two months must have made me smarter!
kudlow’s pseudo apology can be read here:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/24652210
Allow me to paraphrase “Basically we were all douche bags to him and didn’t want to hear what he had to say about recession indicators, so we engaged in a little professional character asassination instead. Keep those cards and letters coming folks, and remember stay long in equities!”
What was up with that Luskin tool wearing a t-shirt? I couldn’t imagine sitting there for those 15 minutes without lunging for Kudlow’s neck.
Are you a bull or are you a bear. WTF sort of question is that?
Barry,
I think this was a disgusting attack against you.
Since when is thinking and having an own view or shorting stocks anti-american? This cannot be true for a country that prides itself about being democratic and free. This is not capitalistic, this is propaganda for the planned economy.
Ludicrisp!
After Luskin’s “If Fusion IQ goes to 100 short it” comment you should have said, “Oh, so that’s how you made all that money in OpenFund. Thanks for the tip.”
After LK said, you’ve been calling for a recession since 2006, you should have said, “Gee what were you predicting in 2006? That the ‘economic boom will continue as far as the eye can see.’ How’d that work out? Did oil prices come down like you suggested they would?”
http://townhall.com/columnists/LawrenceKudlow/2006/04/27/the_greatest_story_never_told
In all seriousness, I feel for you. This is the financial equivalent of Crossfire, and what’s missing is a Jon Stewart moment, where someone a bit bigger profile than you (Buffett?) tells LK, “Stop… you’re hurting the American investor with this financial hackery.”
Seriously, before you go on again you need to have your assistant review the past statement of the other guests, so that the minute they start in with their BS you can call them on it.
Personally, I would just tell the booker that if they’re looking for a punching bag, or a participant for shout-fest, go call someone else. I wouldn’t do a segment with more than one other guest.
PS: LK apologizing on a blog does not make up for ambushing you on air.
Perhaps the bottom of a long thread isn’t the best place to put this but I’m curious why no one else is running with this story?
From ‘The Mugambo Guru:
As to that, I turn to the “Indexes’ P/Es & Yields” table in Barron’s. Which showed that the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost another huge chunk of earnings last week, taking the total earning for the 30 stocks in the index down to $148.27, which was down from $185.64 last week, and which was down from a relatively astounding $756.27 in earnings a year ago! But the stock market did not go down!
This means that with the index closing at 12,745.88 last Friday, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the DJIA went to a staggering 85.97! Hahahaha! People are still buying those stocks at the most absurd price in stock market history! Hahahaha!
The fact that the DJIA did not drop by three-quarters into the gutter where it burned with an acrid flame is Prosecution Exhibit # 4,328 in a separate case in the Mogambo Court Of Awesome Revenge (MCOAR), the one where I sue the hell out of everybody connected with the Federal Reserve, the Congress (except for Ron Paul) and the Supreme Court for being stupid, stupid, stupid, and including as co-defendants the “investing professional” idiots who bought these stupid stocks and their sickly earnings to drove the price up so high that it produced a P/E ratio of 85.97! Hahahaha! This is actually beyond stupid! Buying an index of stocks with a P/E of 85? Hahahaha! This is, is, is … I am at a loss for words!
What say you?
BR, you are fast becoming the Alan Colmes of financial punditry.
5-1 they ganged up on you. They must be really nervous.
how you could sit across the BIGGEST scumbag of all time and not pounce on him is beyond me. I’m 74 years old and out of shape but I would relish the possibility of making him cry.His economics are full of shit ,his record is as bad as his economics,his politics are pure right-wing ideologue bullshit and he wears the flag in his lapel. He wants “victory” in Iraq but when he was called to serve his country he refused to serve. What a creep. Send the kids to get killed or maimed.I just loathe this bombastic supercilious asshole who deserves a lot less than he has.