Hope you had a relaxing 3 day weekend. Mine was filled with disturbing signs of economic malaise. (How about yours?) Granted, these are all anecdotal, and possibly explainable by other factors, but — you be the judge:
We headed out east Saturday with very little traffic considering this was a long holiday weekend. Got last minute dinner reservations Saturday night at one of our favorite restaurants, no problems. At 8 pm, there was no wait — indeed, there were 3 or 4 empty tables after we were seated. Last year, there would have been a 20-30 minute line at that hour on Memorial day weekend.
On the way to the beach, I count 14 homes for sale — same amount as last year. A lot of For Rent signs out also.
On Sunday, Ponquogue beach was only partly filled — no need for the overflow parking lot. At 2:30pm, there was still 3 rows of spots left. It was a gorgeous, sunny day, but only low 70s — so perhaps we can blame the weather. Monday was even sparser.
We go to dinner at one of our favorite lobster restaurants — on the early side, so as to not get home too late. We finished after 7 — the place was still empty.
On the way home, there was some traffic — so we take a favorite back road. Its a not very secret route that on holidays is usually jammed. We fly home with hardly any traffic slowing us down.
I speak to my brother, ask about his weekend — he comments (unsolicited) that he was surprised at how light the traffic was. I guess the "Staycation" phenomenon is real.
~~~
What a strange holiday weekend — how was yours?
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UPDATE II: May 27, 2008 4:57pm
WSJ’s Real Time Economics sees the same thing, calling the Hamptons ‘Magnificently Quiet’
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UPDATE: May 27, 2008 8:57am
The consensus on the train in was that West Hampton (considered déclassé) and Hampton Bays (considered working class) are feeling the hit much more than East Hampton (jammed) And Amagansett.
Not surprising that the top tier is somewhat insulated from the worst of it.
The rich are different — they have more money, and spend it more freely . . .
no doubt, br. just posted to the gas tax posting, but we drove from chicago to sw michigan and saw no traffic there or back. none. no back ups, no slow downs, nothing.
the three day holiday, three couples and misc singles talking about how f’n expensive everything is. good times, but man it didn’t seem to bode well…
I-5 between Long Beach and San Diego was MT! this afternoon, both directions. Unusual, been this way for a month on Sunday afternoons.
I think your analysis is right. Business as usual seems to have slowed markedly (Pacific NW). I’ve yet to meet anyone who isn’t having a hard time.
Low Key Weekend,
Driving around town (Thousand Oaks) with my 3 year old to buy some fish for her aquarium-she remarked on the light traffic and I remarked on all the for lease signs in all the commercial properties-especially the small developments that are just finishing up. Build it and they will come? Not so much in 2008. You CAN see what is happening if you just look around.
Here in La Jolla, it has been cool too. But the beach was like a neutron bomb had exploded and left the buildings intact but all the people were gone. Downtown La Jolla was also empty. The grocery clerk said that it was the slowest Memorial Day in 17 years.
You guys should have tried the ride from NJ into NY via Staten Island. Hell. Even at 11pm Sunday night. I don’t think NYers care about the high Gas prices.
BR- couldn’t agree more with your east-bound traffic assessment (we left NYC friday night and made unreal time to Southampton). ..HOWEVER, coming back today- specifically 27W, to exit 62 (LIE) esp was the WORST I’d ever seen. And this was at 3pm..
If you would simply use the holiday time to read the BLS reports instead of trusting your own lying anecdotal eyes, you would know there is no small business slowdown as proven by the jobs created by the birth/death model.
Obviously, businesses would not be doing all this hiring unless we were guaranteed a third quarter rebound and prosperity was right around the corner.
Back up the trucks and load up, because it appears equities have reached a permanent high plateau.
“It’s not a recession. It’s an economic slowdown.” – George W. Bush
From Central (Lynchburg) VA…
Our local paper ran an article recently about how the city is experiencing a 10% reduction in sales tax collections.
Also, a local high-end house developer is now in trustee foreclosure and his latest development of 29 lots and 3 houses are being auctioned off:
http://www.trfauctions.com/ua_details.php?id=325
Development here has exploded over the past 2-3 years and now appears to be imploding as this and other unfinished homes and whole developments start to be auctioned off.
Another major development community of many homes, townhouses and business is starting to look like a ghost town. It was THE hottest place to buy 2-3 yrs ago. Late last year I heard that 60% of the business (the ones left) were late on the rent.
Not a traffic report, because I only went 60 miles round trip, on Saturday morning. That traffic was light, as expected. But…
I live in Alexandria, VA where the real estate crunch has not really hit. Prices are stable, sales are slow but occurring. I went to Manassas, VA via Woodbridge, VA (40 miles SW of Washington, DC, out from the city). Talk about your ghost town!!! It seemed that every other house was for sale, all with price reduced. I had not been this far out, but it’s a bloody disater out there!!
In addition, the “Bug Out” (Volkswagen show for aircooled cars) was much smaller than usual. It is obviously a shrinking hobby but this year it fell off a cliff. Way less disposable income, I think.
(sorry for all the exclamation points, but they were NEEDED)
A Memorial Day weekend on a large reservoir straddling the KY/TN border was wonderful–due to the lack of traffic on the water. While there were people out, many of the rental houseboats that are used for heavy partying were still on the docks unrented. Many of the privately owned houseboats were still in their slips. The camping sites were not as raucous, as I suspected the younger party crowd couldn’t afford the trip, but the more family oriented camper could…
This is the second get away where we’ve noticed the diminished crowd. Spring break in Destin, FL was equally delightful as there were no waits to get into restaurants that last summer commanded at least an hour wait.
Coincidental or not, these are indicators that make my family vacations much more enjoyable–so long as the restaurants can stay in business.
We drove from Texas to Colorado on Friday and Saturday and the traffic was lighter than at any other time in the last three years. I t will be very interesting to see the gas/travel numbers for the weekend. There must be a 20-30% drop off from last year.
From Seattle area, East-side near Duvall:
We went house-hunting. We have a pre-approval loan waiting just in case, but we are mostly just site-seeing.
There are houses for sale _everywhere_. We went down one development and there was literally a for sale sign every other house. We no longer really have to look in papers or the internets for houses. We find a neighborhood that looks like it is in our price range, and then we cruise. There are just so many.
Our take: Houses are still way too expensive. Someone was selling a house that had half a deck built outside and a pail of nails filled with rain, as if the builders just stopped suddenly (we suspect a house flippin’ gone bad). The entire east side of the lawn had been dug up to make a trench. The trench had been there a long time. There were weeds growing in it a foot tall. Just a big ole trench. No lawn care. A nightmare.
They were wanting 400k, and this was for a 4 bed, 3 ba in bad condition that was a 30 minute commute to civilization.
Riiiiiiiiight. Sellers haven’t figured it out _yet_. This house in this condition should be lower 300k at best, and that would be with an agreement to fill in the (#@# trench in the front yard ..
It has become obvious even to my friends who are financially-ignorant that there is a change going on in the economy. Increased price on mixed drinks, empty bars/lounges, and crowded sidewalks.
IMO it started to deteriorate markedly in the last month (while markets strangely were rising).
-Reporting from Detroit suburbs
I don’t understand liberals like you guys. When everyone is driving, you complain that we don’t do enough to conserve.
Actual economic reasons come around for people to conserve, and you complain that people aren’t driving enough.
~~~
BR: This comment gets my nomination for the dumbest one of the weekend.
The post is about anecdotal evidence of an economic slowdown — not conservation, energy policy or politics.
No soup for you — come back one year.
We went to the North Dallas Parade of Homes on Saturday. Number of people was way down. Wife commented that the houses were much more practical and didn’t try to scream ostentatious wealth.
Went furniture shopping and was surprised how many people there were. While not packed it was very busy. Asked about delivery on a recliner and she looked up in the computer and said it showed an order of 18 arriving in June and 15 of them were already sold.
Shopping at Home Depot, they had the most people in orange smocks that I have ever seen; even the wife noticed. Too bad they were standing around talking to each other. Store was not faced very well. Went to Lowes also and both HD & Lowes were busy but down slightly from prior years. 3 to 4 deep in each checkout line.
I stayed in the city for the holiday weekend, and it was a mixed bag.
Crazy as usual in the touristy parts of midtown — you can barely hear English spoken near Columbus Circle, it is all French, German, Italian, etc.
The subways were packed, but the passengers were tourists, they were having too much fun to be NY’ers.
Once I got to Brooklyn, where I was headed to a Memorial Day picnic, the crowds thinned way out and things got quiet, calm and happy.
If only it were always like this. ;-0
Just got back from Disney Land. Monday was pretty busy- but not like it should have been. Friday, Saturday and Sunday was lite. LAX was really really lite.
Roman, who’s “complaining”? These are observations.
And, Joe, I agree houses are still overpriced.
From the Central Coast of Ca. We live in a resort community near the only beach accessable to RVs in Ca. (Oceano Beach) It is usually packed with huge RVs and assorted ATVs. This year the camp ground we walked through was mostly tents. Usually it is 90% RVs.
>Actual economic reasons come around for people to conserve, and you complain that people aren’t driving enough.
The complaining is all in your head, because it isn’t in any of the posts here. BR is just asking if anyone has support for his indicator, and as far as I can tell, everyone is thrilled to be out of the usual crowds. I’m personally thrilled that I can see again while driving without some farm-class/working vehicle/rollover-waiting-to-happen ahead of me that thinks 75 is a safe speed.
And you are agreeing with the liberals, I see, that increasing the economic cost of something does change behavior… i.e. the taxes should have been higher on gas long ago to force conservation. But thanks for making that point; it’s a good one.
I enjoy your blog. I don’t get to read it except on weekends as it’s blocked at work.
Regarding traffic. I’m in Davis CA, a suburb of Sacramento. Overall, traffic has been noticably down – in the Sac Metro area – for a few months now.
However, in Davis which is home to one of the UC system campuses, life is wonderful. The taxpayer financed scam that is higher education is still pumping millions into Davis. The town is crowded at night, with resturants full of either wealthy students or students spending their student loan money (not sure which). And, housing isn’t doing as badly as the rest of Sac Metro area. As long as the insiders can keep running their taxpayer funded scams the party will keep rolling, doesn’t matter if it’s Davis or some of Ben’s buds.
Stayed local for the weekend, I typically do, hate the traffic getting out of OC on long weekends. I went to Macys for the dress shirts on sale, mall was wide open, no one in the mens area at all. Followed by the quick service fish restaurant, 3 groups when it is normally full. The $1 movie theater was packed though, there were a lot of families and “Horton hears a Who” was playing.
I’m not too surprised at the traffic levels though, it has been thinning out all year. I’m sure the real estate industry blowing up has really hurt.
I-95 tween Raleigh and DC Sat AM and Monday PM was either moderate or hell depending on the wrecks – there several major delays that I was lucky enough to avoid.
Mt Vernon was packed.
The Raleigh/Chapel Hill/Cary/Durham/RTP area has had a slight reduction in home sales based on paper (not sure about prices retraction), but from visual inspection it is not slowing down. Homes, condos, new McDonalds, etc being constructed all over.
I wonder what the travel deals will be come September if said industry has a LOUSY summer? I just saw a cruise ad on TV here in Chicago saying “it’s cheaper than a hotel”. I think there’s more to come. Could be a long summer for Larry Kudlow & George Bush…..
We went to the beach … when the wind blows offshore and it’s 75 on the sand, where else would you go? Apparently somewhere else, we
only saw three fishermen gamely thrashing away, and a couple of families, with the odd Cromagnon spinning figure eights in the sand with his 70’s Barracuda. Small world, huh?
On the way home we stopped at WalMart, and
joined the melancholy shoppers just looking.
An elderly salesperson talked us out of a
few unneeded future buys, and that was it.
We stopped at a crab shack for supper, and
that was a deal, steamed crab on a sunny picnic table, but the fresh fish was $17 a pound, since West Coast salmon season got
canceled. $17/pound, from $4.50 last year!
It felt like the Day the Earth Stood Still.
Congrats Barry.
You’ve just made my case for being short oil and the SP500. We’re in an economic downturn. CNN lead article right now is about how american driving is down 4.3% this March compared to last March.
U.S. demand for oil is DOWN. We’ve hit the skids. It’s over. Energy prices finally killed the golden goose.
Hope you’re out out of energy/infrastucture/ag plays……
I’ve got top tick target for WTI at 138 or 145…then done. Any break of 145 would be some sort of mania (see Nasdag in 4Q 1999)…and would target much higher levels….but a sell all along the way. I’m not a momentum trader, clearly.
-AT
I saw the owner of a gas station along a major route being interviewed on the national news this evening. He stated that his retail gasoline sales are DOWN BY 25% from the Memorial holiday weekend last year.
.
Here in Philly, people were filling their tanks big time…their propane BBQ tanks, that is.
Traffic reports were surprisingly benign for this holiday.
Me think a lot of people chose to stay home and celebrate in their backyards.
We opted for the staycation.
We made one trip to the Apple store (Glendale, CA), and the new mall across the street was packed. Crazy packed. But I can’t tell you if anyone was actually buying or just looking.
Am I living in another world here in Sarasota Florida???
http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20080522/BUSINESS/805220594/1661
Could not help but notice (as we biked around town on Monday) how quiet the streets were. Ditto for the rest of the weekend. Not counting two trips to the ER, we only drove 10 miles, and that included a trip to the local tavern for bit of dancing (pretty quiet there too).
I live in La Jolla, CA. I went to the mall yesterday (UTC) and it was crowded, but no more so than on an average weekend. I was lured there by a 20% off coupon emailed to me by Eddie Bauer. Incidentally, that was 20% off my entire purchase including sale items. I also went to a furniture store out on Miramar Road (a major furniture center in San Diego) and traffic was very light despite heavy discounting. This morning I went to breakfast in downtown La Jolla and had a short wait for a table at the Coffee Cup, which is usually pretty crowded. There was parking everywhere and foot traffic seemed light in this tourist mecca. I went back downtown to buy some groceries this evening and it looked like a ghost town. Maybe this is typical for this time on a holiday weekend. I don’t really know, but business is definitely not booming. My sense is that the long-awaited slowdown is finally here, but it’s happening in slow motion so it’s hard to see. The revolution will not be televised, and neither will this recession.
Speaking of which, BR, how about considering Gil Scott-Heron (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gil_Scott-Heron) for a Friday night jazz spot?
I have a beach house near Georgica Beach in East Hampton and I was there this weekend too.
I did not go to the beach because it was too cold for me with freezing temperature water.
As far as LIE traffic, I could not tell you because I took a helicopter shuttle from and to the city.
The airport was definitely more congested with private jets, more than it was last year. (It looks like private business jets business is booming).
Rachael Ray has just bought a $50 million property there (just a small piece of land without a house). The real estate is holding pretty strong in the area.
~~~
BR: Manhattan prices holding up pretty well also.
Didn’t do much but my regular sushi restaurant was nearly empty (probably 30% of their usual crowd, even more so considering the holiday… am friends with the chefs and they complained about how they had almost no business all day. they compensated by cutting servers).
The grocery store wasn’t too packed and I went at a time when it is usually swamped.
Brought my siblings to the airport–busy, but, not really too bad for Monday at 6pm. Just coasted right in way later than I would have thought reasonable.
All in all an uneventful (and anecdotal) day.
Though I must say–Friday I was in Panama City, FL for business and couldn’t get late checkout due to overbooking for the weekend.
Of course the lot across from the hotel (which is on the beach) was going for an ADVERTISED “35% discount”. We’re talking beyond prime position. Met a real estate agent at the Atlanta airport… I kind of fished him out by suggesting a mere 6 months remaining but he was adamant at least a year till the bottom (which I suspected as well as my minimum).
Amusing note: it’s easy to sell a house with a pool in Atlanta but it’s nearly impossible to sell a house with a large lawn (odd, right?). Water is not plentiful as you know over there.
(side note: i saw almost no traffic at the FL marina. counted 50+ charters just sitting there and the place was completely full. not sure if that is important since i don’t exactly follow FL marina life but figured i’d mention it)
Oh and all my regular restaurants have raised prices lately. Even the local coffee shop, which makes their own beans, and was always below Starbucks in cost, now matches them. It’s funny because it’s completely obvious–they all print new menus. ;p
Breakfast this morning, for 2, at a regular chain, with little more than bagels and coffee, was $30. $30 isn’t alot in NY, or in general, but in StLouis, for bagles, coffee, and OJ, (what is essentially fast food, no sit-down, no service, etc.) it is not normal.
Oh well, at least my Gold futures are up. ;p
I don’t understand liberals like you guys. When everyone is driving, you complain that we don’t do enough to conserve.
Actual economic reasons come around for people to conserve, and you complain that people aren’t driving enough.
Roman,
who said anything about complaining?
stop reading into things what you want.
Congrats Barry.
You’ve just made my case for being short oil and the SP500. We’re in an economic downturn. CNN lead article right now is about how american driving is down 4.3% this March compared to last March.
U.S. demand for oil is DOWN. We’ve hit the skids. It’s over. Energy prices finally killed the golden goose.
Hope you’re out out of energy/infrastucture/ag plays……
I’ve got top tick target for WTI at 138 or 145…then done. Any break of 145 would be some sort of mania (see Nasdag in 4Q 1999)…and would target much higher levels….but a sell all along the way. I’m not a momentum trader, clearly.
-AT
If you want to short US energy, do NGas. It is a local market. Oil, however, is worldwide.
Don’t make the mistake of thinking that the US always determines world energy/ag prices… I’m sure many places around the world, which are developing at break-neck paces, would be happy to trade their rapidly depreciating dollars for the most important commodity on the earth. Nevermind the many “regimes” that depend on food security for their existence…
What do you think the 3 billion in China/India/etc., are gonna do, anyway–sit on their hands?
Addendum:
Barry, you must visit LI north folk vineyards next week, in particular Wolffer Estate Vineyard, 2007 vintage is fantastic.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a4UjlGU.8GKw
~~~
BR: We go 2X a year to various North Fork Vineyards, bringing back a case or two. Its a day trip, but we’ve made a weekend out of it, sometimes staying in Shelter Island, or a local B&B.
Its delightful after Labor Day — always a nice treat.
In Seattle, traffic was as bad or worse than usual getting in or out of the city, and new construction in downtown Bellevue is huge. Perhaps there are houses for sale in Duvall, but that’ because they are in Duvall.
Wanted to drive up to the Central Coast where I had a sure thing waiting for 3 days of fun but couldn’t afford it.
Also wanted to drive to the state park for some camping but couldn’t afford it.
Rode my bike to my favorite cheap eats restaurant where my friend the owner told me that costs were up but the usual winter doldrums in customers never improved in spring. Margin compression anyone???
FWIW – Bike traffic was light this weekend in Orange County. Thank god the bike is paid for.
I didn’t leave town, so no traffic comments, but over the past weeks it looked to me like home supply stores (HD, OSH) had noticeably shorter checkout lines and more available attendants. (I had a small home project and had to go there a few times.)
Where I live (South SF Bay), Unleaded gas was around $4.10 today. Premium 20-30c more.
Our crew headed to a local state park for some camping, same as last year. The park has just over 1000 campsites, costing $15-$20/night. Last year we arrived mid week and there were still many sites available late Friday night (which are first come first get – no reservations for < 7 day stays) This year, we got delayed getting on the road and arrived around 4:30 Friday afternoon to find all but 5 camp sites already taken - all with no electric. Yet someone had inexplicably just left their electric site early right before we pulled in and we got extremely lucky to get that site with power. I'm with the previous poster re RVs vs tents. Seemed to be a LOT more tents, and very few RVs. Some folks had huge boat trailers on their sites, but many others were just there to relax and be near the water, not on it. Yet for being packed to the gills, the campground was definitely less rowdy - a LOT more families. Traffic? None that we saw. Also seemed like many multi-family groups on sites compared to years past (they allow up to six adults per site) Upon getting home midday Monday we hit a local restaurant to eat lunch and it was VERY quiet for a holiday weekend. We were the only ones in there when we paid our check. Drove by the local pool, which opened this weekend for the season, and it was an absolute zoo. I think a LOT of people had staycations.
Traffic from Michigan harbor country back around to Chicago was as light as I have ever seen it, it was bizarre. I have never seen such light traffic coming back at the end of a weekend, let alone a holiday weekend. I expected 3-4 hours and was home in 2.
John
Completely stayed away from the car this weekend. Just sat poolside with a few friends and drinks in hand (Used the WSJ recipe from Saturday for Hemminway’s daiquiri to much delight). The collective attitude of friends and neighbors who did the same was that we are experiencing the calm before the storm. Hurricane season is just around the corner…
Spent the long weekend in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. It’s been a long winter there, and still chilly for full-blown summer activities, but the entire place was a ghost town. It doesn’t appear too many people were eager to make the drive up with boats and other toys in tow to kick off the summer and open up their summer homes.
I live in shoreline CT so my main artery is 95 of which the most congested stretch from FL to ME is in CT so I avoid it like the plague on holiday weekends. However, on Saturday I had to make a short trip, about 8 miles to Lowe’s to buy some shrubs to support my gardening addiction. It was busy but not nose to tail as it normally is on a Mem weekend. When I got to Lowes it was SLOW. Usually in early summer on a Saturday morning you can’t move. Apart from all this anecdotal stuff did anyone see that piece in the WSJ last Friday, I think, about the cuts being made in large pickup and SUV production schedules and about the amounts of inventory some of the big auto chains are holding. We can all vouch for that as we drive down our local dealer alley. Mine is growning under the weight of this iron. I’m starting to believe the slowdown in the real economy has just started.
Blue collar Hampton Beach NH was slow Sat.
Sunday and Monday were very busy, normal bumper to bumper traffic. May have been a slightly older crowd (less teens).
drove into nyc this weekend and had a hell of a time finding street parking……my friend who lives there said she was amazed at how many people in her building stayed home…these people normally are out of town on holiday weekends and leave the city to the “touristaa”…..but hey….the economy is great, oil is in a bubble and everything is AOK…..
BTW,,,,,,normally don’t drive into nyc, take NJ Transit or a bus. but needed to deliver something to my firend….still many cityfolk never left………
STayed in NYC, which was soooo quiet it was actually quite nice. Got a massage at Bliss, which normally has 3-4 week waits.
Went to CALLE OCHO, a GREAT PLACE, on UWS. Highly recommend this place to anyone that likes fun, creative, and unique dishes with Latin persuasion.
Other than that, central park was crowded most days as I guess there were others like us that enjoy the quiet city.
Went shopping for mattresses in Garden City, Long Island. Stopped first at Raymour&Flanigan. They had a decent crowd but still more salesfolks than customers. They quoted a decent price with no delivery charge. We left and drove to 3 other mattress places. To our surprise – 2 of them had closed and 1 had really crappy stuff. We went back to R&F and ordered. Seems like a few of the stronger retail places are benefiting from less competition.
Also went to Montauk this weekend. Barely any traffic both ways.
Stayed home this weekend because busy work time. Home Depot Saturday was busy (Watertown, MA). My neighborhood was quiet, though. Until night. My impression: lots of daytrippers and people doing small-scale work around home.
I have a place in provincetown (which is trying like heck, price-wise, to be the hamptons of these parts :). Very bi-polar there. While the weather was beautiful, and the town was crowded, it seemed more subdued than usual for a memorial day weekend. I think a large part of the day-tripper traffic wasn’t around. Restaurants were less busy too, not surprising because the price hikes were severe this year, and there wasn’t the bar crowd that I expected either. I also didn’t see people loaded down with the usual shopping bags. And I would say on the drive down the traffic was about half of what I expected. On the way back it was terrible, but it could have been the time I was on the road.
OTOH real estate down there has been moving and holding up fairly well. Prices are down somewhere over 20% from peak, asking-price-wise, but now people are snapping up anything up that resembles reasonable. Well if you consider over 325k for a 500 sqft condo reasonable ;) So anecdotally, it seems that this might be a slower year on the cape. We’ll see what next month brings.
Went RV’ing to central Ohio. The KOA we stayed at was packed with RV’s…the big, fancy, 6-figure kind, with the flat-screen tv’s that pop out of the side. Was somewhat surprised.
OTOH, they normally require a 3-night stay for Memorial Day weekend, and it was not enforced this weekend.
On a lark I decided to try and get out of Brooklyn to the North Fork for the weekend. First place I called had a room available and so spent Sunday and Monday on the beach in Southold. Only cost me $15 each way on the LIRR. Good luck or bad times, it was unusual.
My trip from DC to Pittsburgh Saturday afternoon and my trip back on Monday afternoon was virtually painless. It’s possible Saturday was past the rush, but Monday? I have made the same trip on a non-holiday summer weekend, and the return trip on Sunday was brutal.
Fellow picnicers related a few economic stories to me. One tried to trade in a Ford truck on a new car and the dealership said they weren’t accepting any truck trade ins, as they are impossible to sell. Not surprising.
Another mentioned that his dirt track stock car racing shock company had seen a big decline in orders. Yes, I was in the middle of no where.
Also, the real estate in Arlington, VA seems to be falling very slowly. However, there are 4 very nice townhouses within a 2 block walk of a Metro station that have been for sale for at least 8 months. My bet is the sellers haven’t taken the hit they need to, in order to move the property.
Had guests in from Australia this weekend in Boston.
While the weather was a tad cool, it was a pretty good time to be out and about in the city….and it seemed pretty subdued. Mid-day Saturday traffic was nil……I mean nil. We drove around the city both days as if it were a heatwave in July.
Students are leaving so that would have some impact but Saturday night in the North End I’d say crowds were off 25%.
We have a house in Montauk which we usually rent for a couple of weeks in August. No takers yet & we usually have it rented by now.
I didn’t make it out there this weekend, but am waiting for reports back from the rest of the family. I might spend more time out there this summer if the crowds are thinner :-)
Just moved to Northern Westchester and attempted a tag sale on Saturday. It was a bust – not sure if it was because of the holiday weekend or something else. We made enough to pay the city fee for a trash pick up.
I’ve been trying to freecycle some of the stuff & we can’t even give it away (and it isn’t junk – I swear).
I went driving Saturday morning, left the house (Longview Tx) about 7am heading to Dallas. I shit you not, but didn’t see one car the entire time (this is a two plus hour trip), no big-rigs, no stretch-Hum’s – nothing. Not even one foreclosure bus!!!1
Mine was the ONLY vehicle on Interstate 20 and into Dallas; no RV’s, no emergency first responder-types, nada. Veeeeery Creeeepy.
No one was manning the C-store I came to, so I just filled ‘er up on Habib’s dime. (I also pinched a chimi-changa from the rotating heater display)
After that whole time, I finally managed to see a stray dog next to Texas Stadium, but he seemed very aggressive/hungry so I ran him over for safety reasons obv.
So to wrap this up, I get back home around 8pm, not seeing one car, or person, for that matter, on the entire trek. This economy is definitely in the crapper, I can attest!
Thank God for the interwebs, because I got confirmation that life still exists besides me.
Barry
We went mountain biking north of San Francisco. Traffic was very light. The campgrounds were full. but there was vacancies at the B&B’s. We anticipated the usual traffic jam heading back over the Golden Gate bridge but traffic was at the limit. Gas prices weren’t a problem for us with our Prius.
Same in Asheville (NC). Popular tourist destination. Spooky quiet.
As has been mentioned, S. Cal weather was cool this weekend but Monday was sunny and mild. I live in Redondo Beach and the beaches literally looked no different than a normal week day (like a Monday or Tuesday). I’ve never seen anything like it….no crowds on Memorial Day.
One other observation….the big rigs have slowed down considerably. Usually they are blowing me off the road (I set the cruise control on the RV at 65). This weekend I was actually passing them.
Drove from Baltimore to Wilmington NC this weekend. The beach seemed only filled with locals, and the majority of boats in the harbor were moored rather than out. The route we take around DC coming in just north of Richmond.. was a parking lot on Friday, but as fast as I wanted on Monday.
Drove into DC on Monday around noon. Light, but not slow traffic. Dont think I went less than 60 from Reston all the way to the Metro Station. The Metro was packed, but more for the Nationals game than anything else.
Saw the Memorial Day parade and was disappointed by the crowd. Or lack of one…
Went sport climbing all holiday weekend…our favorite Mexican restuarant…(great food, moderate prices…simply wonderful margaritas…) very few peeps in the place…
Local GM dealer just fired the general manager…sales down more than 33% since January….trucks not selling at all…
Just ordered two Prius hybrids…have to wait until late August for delivery…
Bruce in Tennessee
Was up in Vermont this weekend and saw a couple of my own signs:
–Traffic seemed light in both directions, even though we drove at peak times.
–The Woodstock Inn, one of the toniest places in that part of Vermont, had rooms available all 3 days. That has to be unheard of for Memorial Day weekend.
–The furniture sale that I drove to Vermont to go to (www.pompy.com) wasn’t as competitive as years past. Three years ago, I got there at 5:45 am on Saturday and was #81 in line. This year, I got there the same time and was #55.
Again — just anecdotal. But definitely interesting.
The weather was cold and cloudy, but we took a drive out to Lake Minnetonka in Minnesota to have brunch and hope the clouds would clear so we could take the boat out.
(Anecdotal:) many more empty slips in the marinas this year. More lake-front real estate signs than I have ever seen in the past. One $10+M home that was under construction last year is finished, vacant, and for sale. Virtually NO boats on the water, but at cloudy and <65 I blame the weather for that.
It will be interesting to see how things look once it actually warms up. Rumor has it all the "big boat" owners have lost their boats (and homes), and we won't be seeing any of them at the tie-up this year.
Atlanta – beautiful weekend, no traffic.
Lake Lanier boat traffic was 50% of last year according to the Corps. Gas on the lake is $4.99.
The paper ran a piece about a poor guy that it took $1600 to fill up his boat for the weekend. If he had known that he would not have bought the boat in 2005.
Traffic out to the east end of long island was miserable on Friday: Left at 4pm didn’t arrive in bridgehampton until 8pm. Route 27 was a parking lot and back roads were well-trafficked as well.
Restaurants in Bridgehampton and East Hampton were at capacity all weekend, as far as I saw and heard, and the major nightclubs had no problems selling out their tables at $2,000 minimums. The beaches seemed a little less crowded than last summer.
Prices are definitely down for good rentals, but demand for the best restaurants seems as robust as ever.
Yeh I went to a Home Despot in North Jersey and the “Grill Guy” said all they were selling were grills. He said it was the busiest Mem Day Weekend they have had in years. Oh yeh, I could only fill 1 propane tank because they were all out…..ouch
>Just ordered two Prius hybrids…have to wait until late August for delivery…
They must be keeping up with production. Took us 6 months in 2004 to get ours. (The dealer blamed the color we wanted…) The dealer will get an manifest list when your car gets on the boat from Japan, then it’s almost a month before it will get offloaded on some East Coast port. By the way, your mileage, because the batteries were sitting, which they no likee, will take a month or two to get up to spec.
I don’t know about Tennessee law, but in NY we ran into an interesting point we wished we’d investigated further. We put 500 down on the car to order it and when it arrived they handed us the invoice, which had the price of the car, and subtracted from that: the trade-in price on our old car and the 500 we put down, and then the subtotal, and then sales tax on only that last number. And we stared at that, and we said, wait a minute, we don’t have to pay sales tax on the deposit? And they said, no. I we said, we would have put more money down had we known that…like 10,000. (maybe there’s some kind of limit, but still)
The fact that you don’t have to pay sales tax on the trade-in is already a serious dealer-supporting scam.
Hamptons 2008: ‘Magnificently Quiet’
Memorial Day weekend typically sets the tone for the summer travel and shopping season. This year, a weakening economy coupled with soaring fuel and food prices has Americans scaling back on travel and spending.
That much was obvious to Dede Gotthelf, who owns and manages the Southampton Inn on the east end of Long Island, one of the Hamptons’ chicest spots.
“The roads were magnificently quiet this weekend,” she said. “It was like someone turned back the clock” to days when the Hamptons were little more than a quiet summer vacation spot for families.
Fortunately for Ms. Gotthelf, her 90 rooms were all booked and she expects to stay full all summer (though she and others are in a bind thanks to a sudden shortage of seasonal workers). But she thinks the day-trippers who usually come to the Hamptons to eat, shop, and lounge on the beach are staying home – and that’s bad news for local businesses.
AAA, the automobile group, estimates 360,000 (about 1%) fewer Americans traveled over Memorial Day weekend this year versus last year – which would be the first decline since 2002, after the Sept. 11 attacks and the 2001 recession.
As of Monday, AAA reported the national average for unleaded gas to be a jaw-dropping $3.93.
“It’s the price of gas,” Ms. Gotthelf said. “I just don’t see people cruising around in their BMW SUVs like they used to.”
On my morning interstate commute, I count 18-wheel trucks headed north between two specific exits.
Down 31% since January 1, 2008.
Anecdotes are mostly irrelevant.Our eyes see what we want to see.The street that I use to commute had for sale signs all over it in 2006.I don’t see any now.So what do I read from it??Housing market is booming again!!
Initial claims for unemployment insurance is under 380k for a reason.Shouldn’t it be picking up??If recession/ slowdown started in October we are almost 3 quarters into it and initial claims can’t rise over 400K.
Again tells me that negativity has had a beneficial effect in keeping the system flab-free.We should all be negative all of the time, that way excesses would be precluded!!
Saint Petersburg, FL
Almost every boat stayed docked in the marina. My friend in the coast guard noticed that even the sailboats weren’t being used. There also seemed to be a lot more homeless people walking the streets. Younger than usual, too. One guy was even begging with a baby in a stroler next to him (I’ve NEVER seen that before).
Two of my friends bought cars; both subcompacts. The only place that seemed busy was the Toyota dealer. Suzuki was selling for zero down, zero interest and giving away a gas card to boot.
We took an early vacation the week before Memorial Day thinking that we would avoid the crowds during the long weekend.
Our round-trip was from Orange County, California, to the coastal Redwood National Park with one overnight stay in Sacramento on the way up, two nights at the NP, and one overnight stay near San Jose, before driving back home (i.e. 4 nights, 5 days out). Total distance covered was approximately 1,780 miles.
*Gas prices: were consistently at or slightly above $3.99/gallon for basic unleaded. Many rural gas stations were selling at $4.05 – 4.09/gallon. We had conservatively budgeted for 80 gallons at $4/gallon, and came out about 10% below budget at about 73 gallons for the entire trip, for an average mileage of approximately 24.5 miles/gallon on our 5 year old family minivan. This was the first trip for us where the cost of gas actually figured into our initial budget (this was never a factor before this year). We actively modulated our speed and used cruise control often to maximize gas mileage.
*Food: We packed most of our pre-cooked food that we brought from home. We decided not to buy any food outside unless we absolutely needed it such as if we ran out of what we brought with us. This was also a first for us – in the past on such vacations we tended to eat out often. We ate at a sandwich chain once all our food had run out on the way back. Our large ice chest cooler needed about 8-10 lbs of ice each day which was our only food related expense other than the one sandwich place on the way back.
*Lodging: We stayed with friends on the way up and down, and stayed at a well known camping chain’s cabins which we had reserved in advance. In the past we would have probably stayed at a hotel or a motel st the very least. But this was a good compromise since we probably saved about $150 overall over staying in a hotel.
*Who we saw: Most of the early vacationers we ran into were either retirees, people with smaller kids like us (very few of these), or college students on summer break. There were not many people anywhere including the freeways/highways, beaches, and other tourist attractions – which is probably a factor of where we were (rural norcal – not many people to begin with?). A couple of college students accosted us at a gas station beseeching us to pitch in for gas money to help them get to the next town. We handed them a couple of bucks and some loose change that probably got them across, what, maybe 10-15 miles?
*What we saw at the tourist attractions: Again – not many people. We had many places solely to ourselves. Most travel stops and gift shops seemed to be overstaffed with a lot of employees looking at us blankly and some enthusiastically waiting on us hand over foot.
We had a great time overall, but there was definitely a lack of “vacation buzz” around. Then again, we were probably one of the few early vacationers and things will probably pick up as the summer wears on.
Our overall trip cost around $500 including gas, lodging, and gifts/kick-knacks, but not including the cost of pre-cooked mostly homemade food. This was definitely a vacation on a budget and we were actively trying to stretch and get the most value for our dollars – something that has not been our focus in the past.
In Victoria BC they have a 3 day regatta called Swiftsure w/ several yacht races. Entries were the lowest in 15 years which they blamed on the US economy, as that is where most of the boats that register come from.
I asked at a Disneyworld chat group how Memorial Day was and got this response:
“I’ve been here Memorial Day weekend for as long as I can remember – probably
even before I bought DVC in 1997. Friday night I thought it seemed less
busy, but Saturday & Sunday it was just as busy as always….very crowded.
Monday was busy but less mobbed. I didn’t see any evidence that gas prices were
keeping people away at all. Hopefully it’ll seem less crowded when I head out
to Epcot later this afternoon (tuesday).”
“Staycation”. Living on the 4th largest lake in Michigan. I noted: 50% of the normal docks were not in; boat traffic was very light (was cooler); marina where my boat is – 70%empty and three boats on trailers with For Sale signs; local realtor friend had three phone calls – one looking for a job. Having Dave Ramsey on the business channel all day on Memorial day – interesting?
Hey! I’m _from_ Westhampton. Be nice.
As for the substance, my sister (who still lives there) says that the empty houses are still being kept nice looking, “not boarded up like in Stockton or Miami”.
Definitely looks like 1972 all over again.