Consumer Mortgages, 90 days past due

This morning’s chart porn comes to us via Citigroup — and an informative chart this is:

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U.S. Consumer − Mortgages 
90+ Days Past Due, NCL ratio
click for ginormous chart
1st_2nd_mortgages_citi

Citigroup Details: 1st mortgage portfolio comprised of the Consumer Lending and U.S. Retail Distribution (Citibank) 1st mortgage portfolios and the U.S. Retail Distribution (CitiFinancial) Real Estate portfolio. It includes deferred fees/costs and loans held for sale. 1Q’08 90+DPD based on EOP balances of $154.6 billion. 2nd mortgage portfolio: comprised of the Consumer Lending and U.S. Retail Distribution (Citibank) Home Equity portfolios;

(note this does not include any Q2 info)

Source:
First Quarter 2008 Earnings Review
April 18, 2008
http://www.citigroup.com/citigroup/fin/data/p080418a.pdf?ieNocache=381

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What's been said:

Discussions found on the web:
  1. Christopher commented on Jun 2

    Barry,

    If you look at the charts upside down, they don’t look so bad.

  2. Eric Sebille commented on Jun 2

    Can someone please tell me how Dick Bove is considered a top bank analyst? This guys predictions have been absolutely terrible yet he is always in the media speaking as he is the guru of the sector.

  3. Francois commented on Jun 2

    Gee! That doesn’t look too good.
    I wonder who’s going to send Barry a FU this time.

    And we have yet to reach any sort of bottom…

    Sigh!

  4. Read: Ben Franklin commented on Jun 2

    Eric –

    My thoughts exactly.

    It is stunning how awful Dick Bove’s calls have been. (and yes, I was one of the many that posted to Barry’s original post praising Bove’s calls… still wondering how that slipped past him.)

    What is truly remarkable though (as you point out) is that he keeps getting in front of the camera. By now, you’d think he’d be hiding from the mobs (unemployed).

  5. Eric B commented on Jun 2

    Nobody is immune from SubPrime woes.

  6. james sivco commented on Jun 2

    every single time a bank presents credit quality charts in their presentations….

    …they are streeeetched really wide with the X axis wide and the Y axis short.

    supposed to make you think things are stable and manageable.

  7. Pat G. commented on Jun 2

    Is that a break-out to the upside or what?

  8. Bob commented on Jun 2

    Wow! Not looking very good. Folks are retrenching – dropping their 2nds. Not a good sign as these are the folks who have (had) money.

  9. Guy Bazanos commented on Jun 2

    I don’t know if the increase in delinquent loans is anything new. Everyone anticipated an increase in delinquent loans as adjustable rate mortgages reset throughout 2008. Citigroup didn’t mention how many of their mortgages were ARMs, but they did disclose that 39% of their first time mortgages were low documentation loans, which could be part of their problem. This information has probably been known for quite some time, so I would think that the rise in delinquent loans was expected and already factored in.

  10. B.B. commented on Jun 2

    Eric,

    Dick Bov, call 6 weeks ago: “the greatest buy of a generation!”. Talking about buying into banks. I have that saved on D.V.R. Can’t wait to bring that out next year.

  11. Guy Bazanos commented on Jun 3

    Citibank also discloses the loan to value ratios, FICO scores, and the vintages (’04,’05, and ’06), which should help when projecting writedowns.

  12. chris francis commented on Jun 3

    what are your thoughts on funds like blackrock who are buying these sub prime equity traunches? are they getting them at a sufficient discount to hedge losses?

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