Our last word on NFP for the day:
One of the best leading indicators for employment is Temp Help. . . And how is that doing?
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TEMP HELP TRENDING LOWER
chart via brucesteinberg.net
Temporary Help
June 6, 2008 12:45pm by Barry Ritholtz
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Crude Oil = $139+
Is this people who are offering their services or services that are being demanded and hired? I assume the latter, but the graph isn’t clear about that.
Do temporary tax cuts always decrease temporary help wanted?
Here’s another good leading indicator…Citigroup breaking critical support of 21 according to my chart work.
Off the top of my head, it would seem that at a certain point temp help would go up to help with the reduced workforce. But now temp help is going down. Does this indicate even more drastic economic downturn?
Is today the day I have speculated on before? The day oil causes a non-linear market event?
Dennis Kneale is back to being a moron…”NFP is only one data point”…bet he’d be harping on a good number…”isn’t speculation driving up the price of oil to where it is?”
Imagine if we could get employment numbers for the undocumented/illegal workers. Since they tend to be concentrated in the building trades, it’s got to be a bloodbath.
How to you make an 6% decline look like a 60% cliff-drop?
Suppress the zero, just like in this plot.
Steve B.,
Not only C,
but look at BAC, WM, WB !!!!!!
can WM hold 5 may be a tough ?
As officer Barbrady says, move along nothing to see here…..
This is a horrible chart guys. I don’t think the man in the street or at big picture for that matter perhaps comprehends the extent to which our economy has become dependant on temp labor. Just about every manufacturing and service company is stuffed to the gills with it doing jobs on assembly lines or in distribution warehouses that used to be done by permanents 20 years ago. I’ve had contact with perhaps a dozen manufacturing companies over the past few years and the numbers amaze me. It’s become possible because of computers and the much tighter quality control of industrial processes that have become possible. These are not Wal-Marts with shelf stackers. We’re talking about semi skilled labor putting things together in one way and another. I have to believe this is reflecting a big slowdown in non unionized manufacturing and service organizations and once you run out of temps to lay off you start on the permanents which are always the last to go because of the much higher costs associated with letting such people go.
BR – Great call on the black swan formation earlier in the week; it was clear from the angle of the neck that it was going to a downward dive.
Alaskan Pete,
I can not recall the source (apologies for that) but it seems as though remittances from the U.S. to Mexico have plummeted. This has been used by some commentators as indirect evidence of a shrinking of the “illegal” labor pool.
Regards,
TDL
TDL,
I believe Western Union has mentioned that in several of their press releases going well back to late ’06 or early ’07 when the housing slowdown really started to kick in.
I am living a chart-free lifestyle.
>it seems as though remittances from the U.S. to Mexico have plummeted.
That’s been happening for years and may also be a factor of the border being tighter. Illegal workers can no longer send money home since they remain in the U.S. all year and need it to live on. They stay all year now due to not being guaranteed to get back in again.