Here’s a fun trick:
Go to SeekingAlpha, and in their searchbox type in the word "Recession." Then filter for "Transcripts." This pulls up every earnings call where the word Recession was mentioned.
How many so far? 925!
What Companies Are Discussing the Recession?
July 24, 2008 2:29pm by Barry Ritholtz
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But I thought we are only in a recession if you adjust GDP for inflation?
Correction, this is a correction and not a recession. If they only realized that we are in the 2nd inning and “Who’s” on first and “I don’t know,” is at bat! lol
Does anyone know what content management system they are using? WordPress?
It would be interesting to count the times recession was used in last years transcripts.
So you could say that pretty much everybody is MENTAL… except Phil Grammm.
Haven’t you heard? The recession is over, and everything is O.K. again.
The reason is that oil has dropped to $125, and will never rise again.
(So say the permabulls).
Good stuff Barry, in a related vein. I’ve been keeping track of how many times “the Google” counts the word recession in the news It’s up 400% from 2 years ago, the exact same uptick we saw in the last recession.
I don’t see any reason why to doubt the wisdom of the crowd this time around.
Heard Ford CEO on Bloomberg radio…interviewer was really tough on him compared to most. Mulaly said the economy would start recovering in early 2010 and with their cash and 12B credit line, they think they will make it. Is it dangerous to count credit lines as liquidity in a credit crisis? If lines start getting pulled, do we see cascading BKs?
“Mulaly said the economy would start recovering in early 2010”
More or less what Roubini says. Both are probably not far off the mark. We have another 18 months of recession or recession like conditions in the US. The market showed signs of waking up to this fact today despite passage of the housing bill. That’s going to ease the pressure on the banks a bit, not much, but doesn’t change any of the fundamentals. Another down day tomorrow? Is the bounce over yet mommy?
A couple month’s ago I was considering that housing may have bottomed.
Now, I’m not so sure. From watching markets all my life, I can see that nobody is hitting the offers and there is more and more supply. And Jumbos? screwed.
Houses (around here at least) still do not have a “positive carry” without signicant capital gains. They are very overvalued by this indicator.
They look like a more solid value on a replacement cost basis but that depends on what value you place on the land.
Any other ideas on how to value housing besides “comparables”?
I think we are going to have at least another 10% down leg in housing prices.
Yikes!
What would be really cool is if they allowed you to filter by the article date as well.
Then you’d be able to compile the data by day, week or month into a chart that could be used as an indicator.
Maybe, BR, but analysts expected 1,060 recession mentions.
So expect a rally tomorrow.
Any other ideas on how to value housing besides “comparables”?
The comp you should be using is what similar houses sold for about ten years ago.
In other words, 40 or 50 percent fewer nominal dollars than the 2006 peak.
It’s not surprising that companies would use the recession that’s been predicted since last fall (but hasn’t shown up yet) for CYA purposes. A rare exception I recall was the CEO of Panera when he was interviewed by the WSJ last fall, if memory serves. When asked about the potential negative effects on his business of recession he said something to the effect of this: if customers can’t afford the $1 extra to eat at Panera versus Burger King, we’d be in a depression, not a recession, and outside of another depression, he wouldn’t blame his company’s performance on the economy.
“Gentlemen, you have come sixty days too late. The Depression is over.”
President Hoover, June 1930.