Breakouts/Breakdowns on Fast Money (9/10/08)

Here is yesterday’s featured segment, Breakouts & Breakdowns on Fast Money with Dylan Ratigan.

Here is last night’s episode:
Fast_money_bb

Breakouts & Breakdowns:  An outlook on PNY and NEM, with the Fast Money traders

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The name Fusion is supposed reflect
that we use both technical and fundamental data points.

The
metrics we track are Trend (short, medium, and long term), Money
Flow
(stock and group), Short interest (relative to
float), Institutional Ownership, (we crunch it ourselves between official
quarterly releases),
Earnings Trend (are they still ramping, plateau-ing,
reversing or falling), and
Forecast Earnings Surprise. 

The last
metric is quite fascinating. we take the top analysts on any name in terms of
their recent earnings forecast record. When they are an outlier against the rest
of the analyst community, we often — about ~68% of the time — see an earnigns
surprise. I.E., when the top guy is bearish, and the rest of the dead fish are
bullish, you tend to see an downside surprise (and vice verse). Think Bove and
Whitney versus the geniuses who downgraded Lehman today.
When we get towards erarnings season, I’ll pull a few
names. Its pretty wild stuff. 
 

Our projected holding period is 3
months, plus or minus — but we hold longer if working (i.e., we are still short AIG from last year),
and always use stop losses when they are not working (i.e., covered the short in RIMM for a 5% hit).

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