Via New York Magazine, comes this amusing collection of bad forecasts for the 2008 year:
• Jon Birger, senior writer, Fortune Investors Guide 2008
Smart investors should buy [Merrill Lynch] stock before everyone else comes to their senses.”
Merrill’s shares plummeted 77 percent.
• Elaine Garzarelli, president of Garzarelli Capital, Business Week’s Investment Outlook 2008
Buy some of the most beaten-down stocks, including those of giant financial institutions such as Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, and Merrill Lynch.
As of January 1, none of these firms will still exist.
• Sarah Ketterer, CEO of Causeway Capital Management, Fortune Investors Guide 2008
“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been pummeled. Our stress-test analysis indicates those stocks are at bargain basement prices.”
Fannie and Freddie had lost 90 percent of their value.
• Jon Birger, senior writer, in Fortune Investors Guide 2008
Our bet is that in a stormy market investors will gravitate toward, GE, the ultimate blue chip.
GE’s stock price tumbled 55%, and it’s on the verge of losing its triple-A credit rating.
• Archie MacAllaster, chairman of MacAllaster Pitfield MacKay in Barron’s 2008 Roundtable
“Bank of America will [not cut its dividend], I think they’ll raise it this year. My target price for the stock is $55.”
BofA share price now hovers around $14, and it has slashed its dividend in half.
• James J. Cramer, “Future of Business” New York Magazine
“Goldman Sachs… finishes the year at $300 a share. Not a prediction — an inevitability.”
Goldman Sachs’ share price was $78, and the firm announced its first quarterly loss — $2.2 billion.
Yes, the 2008 investment guides were HILARIOUS — but what makes you think the 2009 guides will be any different.
The Folly of Forecasting
6/7/2005 1:05 PM EDT
Worst Predictions for 2008 (December 2008)
2008 Investment Guides Are HILARIOUS
By: Daily Intel
New York, 12/22/08 at 6:01 PM