Employment Notes Before Friday’s NFP

Dan Greenhaus is at the Equity Strategy Group at Miller Tabak + Co. where he covers markets and portfolio theory. He has contributed several chapters to Investing From the Top Down: A Macro Approach to Capital Markets (by Anthony Crescenzi).

This is his most recent commentary:


This morning’s ADP employment report spurred on some discussion of Friday’s employment report, so I thought Id pass along some quick observations regarding the payroll report. Expectations are now for job losses of 325K which would be the most since October 2001 when the economy also lost 325K. If the data comes in worse than 325K, then it would be the worst reading since July 1982 when the economy shed 343K jobs in the middle of an awful period for the labor market.

Dating back to February 1939 (837 months), the first date for which Bloomberg has monthly data:

-We have had 58 months of job losses of more than 200K (6.92%), 25 months of more than 300K (2.99%), 10 months of more than 400K (1.20%) and 6 months of more than 500K (.72%)

-The highest reading was a 1,114K gain of jobs in September 1983 (Anthony Crescenzi notes that there was an AT&T strike at this time which distorted the numbers)

-The biggest drop of jobs was September 1945 when we lost 1,966K jobs (I cannot add anything as to why this number is so large other than obviously there was some kind of war or something going on at the time)

-Since 1950, the largest addition of jobs was 778K in August 1952

-Since 1950, the largest reduction of jobs was 629K in July 1956

-The most consecutive months with losses of any amount is 17 when the economy shed 2,838K jobs between August 1981 and December 1982. There were 15 consecutive months of job losses from March 2001 until May 2002 which was part of a larger period in which the economy shed jobs 26 out of 32 months or 81.25% of the time. And lastly, the economy shed 1,711K jobs from August 1953 until August 1954, a period of 13 months that had only one month of job additions in April 1954

-The highest rate of unemployment according to Bloomberg data occurred in November 1982 when the unemployment rate hit 10.8%

-The lowest rate of unemployment according to Bloomberg data occurred in May of 1953 when the unemployment rate hit 2.5%

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web:

Posted Under