Dan Greenhaus is at the Equity Strategy Group at Miller Tabak + Co. where he covers markets and portfolio theory. He has contributed several chapters to Investing From the Top Down: A Macro Approach to Capital Markets (by Anthony Crescenzi).
This is his most recent commentary:
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As we pullback a bit from the intraday high, the attached chart shows the rallies the market has undergone during this bear market. At an intraday high of 832.27 or so, the market had rallied 24.79% or so from its intraday low of 667ish. While we have pulled back from that high, it is worth noting that such a rally would make this the strongest rally of the entire bear market, surpassing the 24.225 rally we saw off the November low.
To repeat, we have seen previous bear markets end with rallies of unusual strength (relatively speaking). While this may or may not end up being the strongest rally of the current bear, it doesn’t change the fact that the rallies are getting stronger and while we can still move lower from here, Im beginning to believe that the bulk of the declines is behind us….for now. I still believe we will have a double dip recession but for now but in the meantime, a retest and hold of the lows will be encouraging.
Disclaimer: There was a retest and hold of the November lows in mid January that amounted to absolutely nothing other than the decline off of which we just bounced.
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Dan Greenhaus
Equity Strategy Group
Miller Tabak + Co
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