Joining the less bad party that other regional surveys have experienced,
the April Chicago PMI was 5 pts better than expected at 40.1, up from
31.4 in March, which was the worst since 1980. 50 is the breakeven
between expansion and contraction so we are still clearly in recession
territory but the slowing pace of deterioration obviously has been the
focus. New Orders rose to 42.1 from 30.9, Backlogs rose to 36.9 from
21.3, while inventories remained extremely lean, falling to 30.6 from
34.9, the lowest since 1982. Employment rose by 3.7 pts to 31.8.
Notwithstanding the recent rise and stability in commodity prices,
particularly in the CRB raw industrials index, Prices Paid fell to 28.4
from 34.1, the lowest since 1949. The national ISM figure is out
tomorrow and it’s expected to rise to 38.4 from 36.3 and that would be
the highest since Oct.
DISCLAIMER
Although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources
Miller Tabak + Co., LLC believes to be reliable, its accuracy and
completeness cannot be guaranteed. This report is for informational
purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be construed as an
offer to sell, or a solicitation to buy, any security. At various times
we may have positions in and effect transactions in securities referred
to herein. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be
appropriate for all investors. Trading options is not suitable for all
investors and involves risk of loss. Although the information contained
in the subject report (not including disclosures contained herein) has
been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, the accuracy and
completeness of such information and the opinions expressed herein
cannot be guaranteed. An options disclosure document may be obtained
from Mr. Jay Stenberg, Miller Tabak + Co., LLC., 331 Madison Avenue, New
York, NY 10017. Additional information is available upon request.
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