Video-o-rama: Economy – recovery or relapse?
The video clips below come via my hotel room at Dana Point, California, where I am attending a conference hosted by Rob Arnott’s Research Affiliates. Also present are financial luminaries such as Peter Bernstein, Burton Malkiel, Harry Markowitz and Jack Treynor. It will be fascinating to hear whether these gentlemen see any signs of the economy starting to bottom, and how they are investing at this juncture.
On the video front, the IMF upped its forecast of total global credit crisis-related losses to $4.1 trillion by the end of 2010 and the Congressional Oversight Panel on Tarp conducted a hearing on Capitol Hill, whereas a host of commentators – including Martin Feldstein, Joseph Stiglitz, Nouriel Roubini, Frederic Mishkin, Paul McCulley and John Mauldin – weighed in with a combination of gloomy and “bottom-in-sight” economic forecasts, as well as comments on the imminent results of the bank stress tests.
Other clips worth viewing include the Charlie Rose interview with Mikhail Gorbachev and Martin Wolf’s take on the UK economy.
Enjoy the footage while I enjoy the views across the North Pacific.
Bloomberg: IMF’s Vinals says losses from crisis may hit $4 trillion
“Jose Vinals, director of monetary affairs and capital markets at the International Monetary Fund, speaks about the outlook for global losses on distressed loans and securitized assets due to financial market turmoil and the recession. Banks will shoulder about 61% of the writedowns, with insurers, pension funds and other nonbanks assuming the rest, IMF said in a report today on the state of the global financial system. The fund forecast $4.1 trillion in losses by the end of 2010 with $2.7 trillion in losses from US-originated loans and assets, compared to its estimates of $2.2 trillion in January and $1.4 trillion in October.”
Source: Bloomberg, April 21, 2009.
CNBC: Treasury’s TARP update
“Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner updates the Congressional Oversight Committee on TARP.”
Source: CNBC, April 21, 2009.
Fox Business: TARP oversight panel questions Geithner
Source: Fox Business, April 21, 2009.
CNBC: Treasury hearing – Elizabeth Warren’s statements
“Congressional Oversight Panel chair Elizabeth Warren makes statements on the Treasury’s TARP update.”
Source: CNBC, April 21, 2009.
Yahoo Finance, Tech Ticker: Will bank “stress tests” kill market … or government credibility?
“Believe it or not, the ‘stress tests’ that the government is performing to see how that banks will do if the economy continues to get worse were originally intended to inspire confidence.
“The government would subject the banks to all sorts of horrifying scenarios, the theory went, and it would then report that the banks had passed with flying colors – thus reassuring a nervous public that the financial system was sound.
“Alas, from the beginning, the stress tests weren’t stressful enough. The government then said it was planning to withhold the results of the stress test to avoid harming the bad banks – which defeated the whole purpose.
“Josh Rosner, managing director at Graham Fisher, is as frustrated as many analysts with the flaws of the stress tests, but he hasn’t lost all hope. Rosner cites two key dates: Friday, April 24, when the government will reveal details of the tests, and May 4, when some ‘results’ will be revealed. He says he hopes the tests will force the government to begin to differentiate between strong banks and weak banks, which he thinks is critical to the recovery process.”
Source: Yahoo Finance, Tech Ticker, April 20, 2009.
YouTube: Banks go on the offensive
“Many banks are starting to take aim at customers who are falling behind on payments by increasing fees and credit card rates, much to the chagrin of the White House. Kimberly Dozier reports.”
Source: YouTube, April 19, 2009.
Forbes: The Roubini recovery
Source: Steve Forbes, Forbes, April 20, 2009.
Bloomberg: Feldstein says US “right in the middle” of recession
“Martin Feldstein, an economics professor at Harvard University, talks with Bloomberg’s Kathleen Hays about the state of the US economy. Feldstein also discusses the outlook for unemployment, inflation and Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the impact of bank stress test results on new investment in the lenders.”
Source: Bloomberg, April 23, 2009.
CNBC: Stiglitz on plans for fixing the financial system
“Inside the Joint Economic Committee’s plans for fixing the financial system, with Joseph Stiglitz, 2001 Nobel Laureate – economics/Columbia University professor, and Richard LeFrak, LeFrak Organization.”
Source: CNBC, April 22, 2009.
CNBC: Altman – recovery or relapse?
“The nation will have a difficult climb out of the economic downturn, says Roger Altman, former Deputy Treasury Secretary/Evercore Capital Partners chairman.”
Source: CNBC, April 21, 2009.
Bloomberg: McCulley says economic data suggest bottoming process
“Paul McCulley, managing director at Pacific Investment Management Co., talks with Bloomberg’s Kathleen Hays about the outlook for the US economy. McCulley, speaking from Newport Beach, California, also discusses the Treasury yield curve, the housing and commercial mortgage markets and the Treasury’s public-private program for asset-backed securities. Bloomberg’s Mark Crumpton also speaks.”
Source: Bloomberg, April 22, 2009.
CNBC: Mishkin – receding recession
“Discussing the signs of an economic bottom that have been evident in recent weeks, with Frederic Mishkin, former Federal Reserve Board governor.”
Source: CNBC, April 20, 2009.
John Authers (Financial Times): Green shoots in housing
“The recent partly artificial slowdown in foreclosures, as banks awaited details of Obama administration’s plan to deal with the problem, may explain the ‘green shoots’ that have appeared is US housing data.”
Click here for the article.
Source: John Authers, Financial Times, April 23, 2009.
CNBC: Second-quarter earnings could deepen recession
“The recession is not over according to John Mauldin, president of Millenium Wave Investments. ‘I would not be surprised if the US market retests the lows after second-quarter earnings come out. It’s just not going to be good,’ he added.”
Source: CNBC, April 17, 2009.
Bloomberg: Whitney Meredith expects banks to return to “negative earnings”
“Meredith Whitney, founder of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, talks with Bloomberg’s Margaret Popper about the outlook for earnings at US banks in 2009. Whitney, speaking in New York, also discusses market reaction to today’s earnings report from Bank of America, the decision by banks to reduce unused credit-card lines and the outlook for results of the government’s ‘stress tests’ for the nation’s largest banks.”
Source: Bloomberg, April 20, 2009.
John Authers (Financial Times): Emerging-market risk
“The IMF fears that across all emerging markets, there could be a repetition of the ‘sudden stops’ seen in earlier crises, with real credit falling by 15% a year for the next two years.”
Click here for the article.
Source: John Authers, Financial Times, April 22, 2009.
Bloomberg: O’Neill “outright bullish” on dollar versus yen
“Jim O’Neill, chief economist for Goldman Sachs International, talks to Bloomberg’s Kathleen Hayes about the outlook for the US dollar versus the yen. O’Neill, speaking from Boston, also discusses bank stress tests, China’s economy and the US trade deficit.”
Source: Bloomberg, April 21, 2009.
CNBC: Eurozone PMI better than expected
“Eurozone services and manufacturing PMI rose above expectations Thursday to its highest level since October. Chris Williamson from Markit considers whether the region’s recession is easing.”
Source: CNBC, April 23, 2009.
Financial Times: Darling “flying on a wing and a prayer”
“Martin Wolf, FT chief economics commentator, analyses the UK Budget 2009. He says nothing in today’s Budget will ensure chancellor Alistair Darling’s optimistic growth forecasts will be achieved and that he is at the mercy of a global recession. He says the government appears to want to spend as if nothing has happened at least until next year and the election.”
Source: Financial Times, April 23, 2009.
Financial Times: Kathy Matsui dissects Japan’s stimulus package
“In part 1 Matsui explains why investors should be disappointed with Japan’s latest economic stimulus package.
“Click here for part 2 in which Matsui says Japan has failed to learn from its past mistakes made during the 1990’s.”
Source: Financial Times, April 20, 2009.
Financial Times: ANC takes lead in South Africa election
“Former president Nelson Mandela votes in South Africa’s election as the ANC faces its stiffest challenge since taking power.”
Source: Financial Times, April 24, 2009.
Charlie Rose: An hour with Mikhail Gorbachev and George Shultz
Source: Charlie Rose, April 21, 2009.
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